2025 Oscar Predictions

Lately, there's been this split inside the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, as the old guard continues to clash with an influx of newer members who changed the game when preferential balloting went into effect in 2009. While the former still cling to traditionalist views of what an Oscar winner should look and feel like, a younger, more diverse voting body has risen up, with some surprising results. 

Rarely has the playing field seemed as fractured as this year, as competing definitions of what a Best Picture is comes to a head an hour earlier Sunday when Conan O'Brien hosts the show. And as recent victors like Parasite, Nomadland, Coda and Everything Everywhere All At Once have proven, bigger doesn't always equal better for voters, with gigantic, high grossing theatrical epics becoming extinct in the streaming era. In retrospect, last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon was an anomaly, not just in terms of critical and commercial success, but in generating the kind of water cooler buzz that leads to renewed Oscar interest. 

Wicked appeared to be taking that route until abruptly fading from the conversation despite its 10 nomination haul. Instead, the headline surrounding this 87th Academy Awards is scandal, with former frontrunner Emilia Pérez's chances going up in smoke after a flurry of offensive tweets resurfaced from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón. Now, it faces the very real possibility of being shut out of all 13 categories for which its nominated. 

Suddenly, we're left with a potential Conclave vs. Anora showdown when the dramatic papal thriller faces off against a more zeitgeisty vision that could better represent where modern filmmaking's headed. Whether it gets the general public to care about the show is almost beside the point since this almost century old institution isn't going anywhere, regardless of what wins or how much doomsayers complain. But we are set for a really tight one on Sunday. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the major categories.                

 

*Predicted Winners 

ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death By Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Perez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

LIVE ACTION SHORT 
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 

FILM EDITING
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

SOUND
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey & David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett & Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz & Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson & John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo & Leff Lefferts)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

ORIGINAL SONG
"El Mal," Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
"The Journey," The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren)
"Like a Bird," Sing Sing (Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada)
"Mi Camino," Emilia Pérez (Camille & Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late (Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt & Bernie Taupin)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto & Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier & Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin & Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft & Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe & Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story & Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius & Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)

A month or two ago, Audiard's script for Emilia Pérez would have been a serious threat in this category, or at least leading Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Now it's in dead last, with all the controversy shining an even bigger spotlight on what dissenters already thought was the film's weakest aspect. Now, A Complete Unknown has made up about as much ground as Pérez lost, but most are more enamored with Chalamet's take on Dylan than Mangold and Cocks' script. That leaves the still very well regarded Conclave, which almost has to win this with Edward Burger's direction going unnominated and the Actor and Picture outcomes still in doubt. Its recent SAG and BAFTA trophies only help.       

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

It's a surprise enough voters even knew about September 5 so its inclusion here is probably reward enough. A Real Pain has a great chance, but with only one other nod to its name, it may not be significant enough to topple three strong Best Picture contenders. If it's between Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance, this outcome largely depends on what happens in the bigger, more consequential races. Given the roll Anora's on and that the latter two will likely be recognized elsewhere, you have to figure this goes to WGA winner Sean Baker, who's the only nominee equally respected as both a writer and director. Whether or not Anora takes home the big one, voters will want to reward him here.        

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

With a frontrunner who's been forced to distance herself from the very film she's nominated for, the discussion revolves around how much damage has been done to Zoe Saldaña. But there's good news. While not quite the lock she was a month ago, even Pérez's most vehement haters would admit her performance is far and away the best thing in it. So what it really comes down to is whether anyone can beat her. 

Rossellini has two minutes of screen time in Conclave, most need to be reminded The Brutalist's Jones was nominated, and as much love as A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro has gotten, a win her first time out is a stretch. That leaves us with Ariana Grande, who's deserving, but Wicked's stalled campaign makes it hard to imagine voters favoring her, even under these circumstances. If anything, the Academy will be more inclined to reward Saldaña for graciously holding it together throughout the entire P.R. disaster. With Globe, BAFTA and SAG wins under her belt, she's got this.               

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Anora's Yura Borisov earned a surprise, but well deserved nod that's hopefully just the start for him. Norton represents yet another endorsement for A Complete Unknown, but he's a real longshot. Though many think Guy Pearce should be getting even more attention for his role as industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren in The Brutalist, he's a lot less likely than Adrien Brody to be the acting win that polarizing film picks up. 

So good as young Trump's slimy mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong taking this feels completely justified, if not for the fact his Succession costar Culkin already has it locked up for his manic portrayal of rambunctious, grief ridden cousin Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain. While the Supporting Actress race is known for its upsets, this category isn't, and should be the only foregone conclusion of the night. Put your money on Culkin, who won every precursor in sight and seems poised to deliver another wildly entertaining acceptance speech.   

ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Gascón never had much of a chance at pulling this off anyway given how her lead category placement was called into question from the get-go, with many still believing she and Saldaña should have swapped places. But none of that matters now, as her shot at becoming the first openly trans actress to win an Academy Award has evaporated. But what it does is create an opening for beloved underdog Fernanda Torres to capture some of those international votes for her Golden Globe winning performance in I'm Still Here, which no one dislikes.

Erivo seemed much stronger before Wicked fizzled, erasing her from contention and leaving Mikey Madison and Demi Moore to battle it out in a race that's narrowed considerably in recent weeks as Anora's gained momentum. Madison's surprise BAFTA win definitely helped and a potential Best Picture victory could seal this since her performance and the film are nearly inseparable. But SAG and Globe losses to Moore, combined with her lower visibility, could hurt. Voters have also have a history of passing over young ingenues by rationalizing how much "time" they still have to win Oscars.

It's less what Madison lacks than everything Moore brings, which is immense popularity and a narrative that overcomes any ambivalence toward endorsing a graphic body horror film. And who among the Academy won't want to hear another inspiring acceptance speech about the double standards facing  women in Hollywood? Or reward an actress who thought she was finished, only to pour all those fears and insecurities into the defining role of her forty year career? Comeback stories don't get much bigger than this.                     

ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

In a sparser than usual field, I'd jump out of my seat if Sebastian Stan won for The Apprentice, but it's just not in the cards. And neither is a victory for Sing Sing's Colman Domingo or Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, who's slipped despite Conclave recently regaining ground. Besides giving the category's most popular performance, Chalamet managed to win over many doubters who assumed he couldn't play a believable Bob Dylan and does his own singing (something previous winners like Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody can't claim). The surprise SAG victory indicates passionate support, even if it came after Oscar voting already ended. 

Whether or not playing a real life figure still carries the same currency it once did, Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever at 29, breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody over twenty years earlier in The Pianist. And we'll see if voters can justify holding off on crowning Chalamet, who many believe will be back here again soon. But whatever hesitation there is in recognizing Mikey Madison for that reason, just double it and ask Elvis' Austin Butler how things went for him against Brendan Fraser. As divisive as it is, The Brutalist can't go home empty handed and Brody's suffering performance as Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor László Tóth could be how voters honor it, making him a two-time Oscar winner. Still, this race is a coin flip.                

DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Voters might be feeling a twinge of remorse that they can't substitute Conclave's Edward Burger, Nickel Boys' RaMell Ross, or Dune: Part Two's Denis Villeneuve in for Audiard, but the ship already sailed. A Complete Unknown will be remembered and celebrated for a while to come, but most agree it won't necessarily be for Mangold's direction. The Substance making it this far is a real credit to the talents of writer/director Fargeat, but a Best Actress and Makeup win is probably its ceiling. 

A possible Picture/Director split is always on everyone's minds when this year's no exception. Almost equally strong cases can be made for Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, but Baker has the slight edge having picked up that coveted DGA, an almost foolproof indicator that the Oscar's his. And if The Brutalist is a rough sit for voters, the more warmly embraced Anora has been held up as the ultimate signifier of Baker's skills. And him somehow feeling overdue with barely ten films behind him has to be seen as a very positive sign.         

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Emilia Pérez is finished, and while it's still leagues better than the atrocity that's been described, the film's excessive nomination tally and unfortunate scandal put a target on its back. Wicked peaked months ago and will occupy a proverbial blockbuster slot alongside Dune: Part Two, with voters awaiting their final installments before awarding either.

The competition is too stiff for I'm Still Here and Nickel Boys, neither of which have a director nod or equally meaningful notice that indicates a break through. The Substance's genre starts factoring in here since there's very little chance the Academy would crown a horror film with its top prize. A Complete Unknown's late surge is impressive, but more likely to result in a win for Chalamet than the movie as a whole. 

The Brutalist was looking much better a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to imagine a cerebral critics pick running away with this, especially considering how a similarly themed and executed masterpiece like There Will Be Blood couldn't even manage to pull it off. Conclave has a BAFTA and just recently got the SAG boost, but Berger's lack of a directing nod is worrisome.

While there's some precedent for overcoming the director hurdle (ask Ben Affleck), what can't be overcome is Anora winning both the PGA and DGA, making its path to gold a whole lot easier. Of those that have, only Brokeback Mountain, La La Land and 1917 failed to win Best Picture, with their losses documented as the most shocking in Oscar history. This doesn't feel like one of those races. Anora checks all the important boxes, solidifying it as the safer bet.                

2024 Oscar Predictions

Most years, Academy voters can either be relied on to spread the wealth among a variety of different films in many categories or put their energy behind one title that runs the table, sweeping nearly everything. Think Ben-Hur, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Whether Oppenheimer joins that exclusive club remains to be seen, but it's sure shaping up that way, as it lays claim to a whopping thirteen nominations. 

Converting even half of those nods into wins would still make Sunday's 96th Oscars telecast a fairly predictable one, leaving little room for the surprises we hope for. Or if you're a more casual follower, plummeting ratings indicate you may not be watching anyway. But despite constant rumblings the ceremony could follow the SAG Awards to a streamer, it'll be staying on ABC for now with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting at a mercifully earlier start time.

In an effort to attract more eyeballs, Barbie will be all over the screen for promotional purposes, at least if commercials and ads are any indication. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie's snubs notwithstanding, eight noms is still an impressive haul that can be credited to what they brought to material no one thought could work. Voters will ensure it picks up something, but the night really revolves around Oppenheimer's foreseeable wins and how the show's producers can overcome any potential monotony accompanying that. On paper, Best Actor and Actress appear the least locked, but even the tightness of those races has widened in recent weeks, which could be good news for fans finalizing their picks. My predictions are below, along with an in depth analysis of the major categories.           

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

BEST SOUND
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo & Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk and Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Arthur Max & Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony (Jon Baptiste & Dan Wilson)
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie (Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
"The Fire Inside Me," Flamin' Hot (Diane Warren)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby & Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou & Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier & Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts & Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi & Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams & Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco & Neil Corbould)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

This is a somewhat challenging race to predict since it's one the few Oppenheimer might not win. Already poised to take home at least a few technical awards, Poor Things is riding high right now, making it easy to imagine voters rewarding Tony McNamara for working wonders with Alasdair Gray's 1992 novel. In an open field like this, The Zone of Interest can't be discounted, either for its subject matter or how Jonathan Glazer handled a tricky adaptation. 

Three-time screenplay nominee Gerwig (along with co-writer Noah Baumbach) being recognized after all isn't outside the realm of possibility since this seems like an ideal place to honor Barbie. But confusion over its category placement landed it in a far more competitive race that's likely to be won by Cord Jefferson. His timely, of the moment take on Percival Everett's 2001 novel culturally resonates in a way its closest competitors don't. It also holds a BAFTA win over Oppenheimer, which isn't nothing.      

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Celine Song)

Barbie's exclusion opened this race up a little more while May December makes its only Oscar appearance alongside Cooper's more Academy-friendly Maestro. But in the case of both, writing wouldn't be singled out as their key strength, or at least enough of one to pull off a win. Past Lives risks getting lost in the shuffle while David Hemingson's classically constructed screenplay for The Holdovers was a sure bet until Anatomy of a Fall won this award at BAFTA and the Globes, emerging as the new favorite. 

Fall's other nominations also indicate broader support, with Triet and Harari's script appealing to voters' sense of storytelling efficiency. The Holdovers can still pull this off, but it may have stood a slightly better chance if director Alexander Payne was credited as a co-writer alongside Hemingson since everything's a popularity contest. And that it feels like a literary adaptation could work for or against its chances of voters recognizing its originality.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrara (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Blunt's first ever nod for Oppenheimer seems perplexing until you realize overall appreciation for the film carried her through. Danielle Brooks and Jodie Foster are in better positions, even as their respective films were overlooked in enough key categories that they've sort of become afterthoughts. 

While America Ferrera's reward will have to be impressively making the cut for Barbie, Da'Vine Randolph is the lockiest of locks for her performance as grieving Barton Academy cafeteria manager Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. It's hard to think of a more universally praised turn from anyone all year. In a category known for surprises, we won't be getting any here.           

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Voters liked Barbie's Gosling more than enough to find a spot for him but it's unlikely he has enough support to go further for his wildly subversive and entertaining take on Ken. It was always a coin flip between Poor Things co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, but it's Stone's movie, leaving the chosen Ruffalo as the odd man out in a crowded category. 

With KOTFM having lost momentum, the likelihood of De Niro upsetting for his turn as villainous politico William "King" Hale follows suit. Most agree it's great to see him in a role like this again, while also acknowledging there isn't anything particularly special about the performance. 

There's been nothing but unanimous praise for Sterling K. Brown's work in American Fiction but he's unfortunately pitted against an unstoppable Robert Downey Jr. who's been collecting trophies all season as two-faced Oppenheimer nemesis Lewis Strauss. Besides him greatly contributing the year's most honored film, it's being viewed as a post-Marvel reminder of what he's always done best. One of the biggest locks of the night.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Acting legend Annette Bening has never won an Oscar, but as beloved as the five-time nominee is by voters, it won't be happening this year for her physically taxing performance as a 60-year-old distance swimmer in Nyad. And it's a shame Netflix didn't push harder since it's exactly the kind of part that could have done it for her. Mulligan (who should have won for 2020's Promising Young Woman) is sensational in Maestro, but with many still feeling it's Cooper's film, this is an uphill battle. She'll be back. 

If there's a spoiler, it'll be Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall given the Academy's large European contingent and overall respect shown to that film with its other nods. If the top two split votes, she's still a long shot, but no more of an impossibility than Olivia Colman was in 2018 when she upset Glenn Close.

With Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, Stone's still sitting pretty right now, but Gladstone's arguably better situated, having also locked up a Golden Globe in addition to her PGA and SAG victories. But Stone already having Supporting Oscar shouldn't really harm her chances and the fact she's playing a resurrected nymphomaniac isn't viewed as much of an obstacle either, with most  focused on how brilliantly she did it. 

Despite divisive reactions to KOTFM, voters won't be able to resist the temptation of crowning Gladstone the first Native American Best Actress winner and hearing what's sure to be a moving acceptance speech. Even if we focus entirely on the performances and say those things shouldn't matter, they do. On top of this, the work itself is deserving. Even Stone's probably pulling for her at this point, knowing the backlash she'd inevitably get for winning. The Best Actor race may be close, but this is tighter, with Gladstone poised to make history. And we all know how much the Academy loves that.                

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Many may have loved the performance, but Colman Domingo is the outlier here with the smallest chance in this field of five. Cooper's been unfairly mocked for silly reasons, but in another year the multi-time nominee would have finally sealed the deal with his memorable portrayal of late composer Leonard Bernstein. Wright's gained a lot of steam for American Fiction, but he peaked a little late, making it hard to picture him pulling this off.

If we're keeping track, Murphy won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and most recently the SAG. Giamatti holds PGA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe victories heading into the show. On paper, the edge is Murphy's since it's highly uncommon to win the SAG and not walk away with Oscar gold. Plus, a tidal wave of Oppenheimer support can only help bolster the chances for the type of biographical performance voters usually embrace. 

In his favor, Giamatti's career high work as a curmudgeonly educator in The Holdovers is probably more accessible than Murphy's icier turn and some may feel he's owed a trophy for the Sideways travesty. But that was decades ago so it'll probably come down to the movies, one of which its studio hung out to dry and is viewed as being more "lightweight" than the juggernaut that is Oppenheimer. Murphy takes it in one of the night's closer races.           

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Even if voters weren't exactly feeling adventurous when narrowing this down, but it's hard to argue against the inclusion of any of these filmmakers on merit. Perhaps more noticeable is who they displaced, as many still wish either Gerwig, Payne, Song or Jefferson could have snuck in. To that end, Glazer and Triet's nominations will be seen as reward enough given who they nudged out to claim their spots. 

There's a lot of respect for what Lanthimos did with Poor Things, but not necessarily enough from the older skewing director's branch to take him over the finish line. Once an early favorite, Scorsese's chances basically evaporated when KOTFM didn't get the rapturous reception most expected. Even those lukewarm on Oppenheimer can't deny Nolan's directorial achievement, or the fact he's probably overdue. This is his to lose, but he won't. 

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

In a year with this obvious a frontrunner the futility of having ten nominees really stands out. Poor Things and American Fiction have done respectably while KOTFM's recent decline is steep enough to actually affect Gladstone's chances. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest each have their fans, but only Fall seems noteworthy for having that Triet nomination. Barbie's snubs in other categories damaged its viability in the big races, the underrated Maestro got a bad rap all season, and The Holdovers' best shot at gold remains with Randolph and possibly Giamatti.  

Every nominee has either lost momentum or held steady, with one notable exception. Oppenheimer has been running through the competition with shows no signs of slowing down, picking up every precursor while still being discussed and analyzed as if it came out yesterday. Audiences and critics love it and as a historical biography with timely resonance, its win is a foregone conclusion, giving Nolan matching Best Picture and Director statues.    

2022 Oscar Predictions

The good news first. If you're a fan and familiar with this year's nominees, there are some really tight races and compelling scenarios to weigh heading into Sunday's 94th Oscars. And it's basically a done deal that for the first time in the Academy's long and illustrious history that the coveted Best Picture prize will be won by a streaming service. The only question is which one, as that category has suddenly shaped into an extremely close two-horse race featuring a pair of films that couldn't be more diametrically opposed in approach, style and content. Add on top of that some eclectic acting nominations and it's sure to be an exciting predictions night for critics and prognosticators who religiously follow this. 

Now the bad news. The AMPAS still hasn't found a way to capture the zeitgeist or lure mainstream audiences to the show, whatever that means anymore. With theaters now exclusively reserved for the special attraction blockbusters and everything else going straight to streaming, we have another year of underseen nominees the general public couldn't care less about. And trying to shoehorn more popular titles onto the show for ratings by instituting a people's choice vote just puts a band-aid on what's become a far larger problem.

With ABC still recovering from the lingering hangover from last year's disaster, we've had a clumsy, last minute rollout of multiple hosts (after a three year streak of none) and a highly controversial decision to pre-tape 8 categories (including biggies like editing and costume design) as an intended time saver. Of course, whatever segments replace that are likely tell the tale of how bearable the show will be. Here's an idea: Don't proudly announce bad ideas anymore, work on having a good, tight telecast with one outside-of-the-box host and go back to five Best Picture nominees. I know, easier said than done. 

On the bright side, The Power of the Dog vs. CODA Best Picture showdown is a nail biter and having seen the majority of nominees before the show my prediction post this year has more of a "will win, should win" vibe to it. My predictions are listed below, along with a more in-depth analysis of the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to make possible changes or adjustments before the telecast. But once show time comes around, that's it.  

*Predicted Winners  

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto (Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Luca (Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer
and Peter Del Vecho)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art (Joanna Quinn and Les Mills)
Bestia (Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz)
Boxballet (Anton Dyakov)
Robin Robin (Dan Ojari and Mikey Please)
The Windshield Wiper (Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension (Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell)
Attica (Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sorensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Summer of Soul (Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein)
Writing With Fire (Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible (Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean)
Lead Me Home (Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk)
The Queen of Basketball (Ben Proudfoot)
Three Songs for Benazir (Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei)
When We Were Bullies (Jay Rosenblatt)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run (Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger)
The Dress (Tadeusz Lysiak and Maciej Ślesicki)
The Long Goodbye (Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed)
On My Mind (Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson)
Please Hold (K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

BEST SOUND
Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri)
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett)
No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor)
The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb)
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune (production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Nightmare Alley (production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (production design: Grant Major; set decoration: Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (production design: Stefan Dechant; set decoration: Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngelo)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” — music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” — music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” — music and lyrics by Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” — music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” — music and lyrics by Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America (Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer)
Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon)
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh)
House of Gucci (Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer)
Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and
Dan Sudick)
No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA (screenplay by Siân Heder)
Drive My Car (screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth)
The Lost Daughter (written by Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (written by Jane Campion)

A surprisingly competitive category and one of the toughest to predict, mainly because it'll provide a major clue as to how Best Picture shakes out. CODA, fresh off a WGA win and riding a tidal wave of momentum, looks to take out The Power of the Dog here first and just might. As the only adapted screenplay without a corresponding BP nod, Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter has an uphill battle, as does Dune, which should be busy cleaning up in the technical categories. Drive My Car overperformed nomination-wise, so while still lacks in really broad appeal, a shocking upset isn't impossible. But it comes back to the big two, with the edge going to CODA, if only because the emotional consensus is starting to look unstoppable. Still, what Campion did with Thomas Savage's novel can't be discounted, nor can The Power of the Dog's precursor haul and sheer number of nominations. It's taken some hits lately but there's still a lot of respect left for it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast (written by Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (screenplay by Adam McKay; story by Adam McKay & David Sirota)
King Richard (written by Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (written by Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Worst Person in the World (written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)

Another close race. Don't Look Up and The Worst Person in the World are filling out the category, but have no real shot. King Richard is definitely in a far better position to win than either, but Baylin's solid screenplay just hasn't been honored enough in other places to make me feel comfortable predicting that upset. It almost seems like years ago that Belfast was actually considered the Best Picture frontrunner, as it's been losing steam by the second heading into the final stretch. Can it still win here? Probably. Everyone seems to like Branagh and his charmer of a movie well enough that they'd want to reward it somewhere. PTA's Licorice Pizza script is coming on strong and has a surprising amount of support that could translate into votes, despite that nagging voice telling us "it's just not the Academy's thing." But despite it falling off the radar, I just can't see them sending Belfast home empty-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Ariana DeBose has this in the bag. Voters love symmetry and there would be no better recent example than DeBose winning for the same role her West Side Story co-star Rita Moreno did in the 1961, marking an Oscar first. Ellis, Dench and Buckley all did commendable work in their films but they've basically become stepping stones on DeBose's path to the podium and a gold statue. But as impressive as she was in the film, it's not the best performance in this category, or even in West Side Story, as Rachel Zegler and Mike Faist could both lay claim to that.  

Whatever you may think of The Power of the Dog, Kirsten Dunst's transformative work in it isn't easy to shake and ranks among the best things she's done in her entire career. Of everyone, she's the strongest threat to DeBose and deserves the win, but this race was decided months ago. It's a lock, not to mention a way to reward a movie that financially underperformed, but definitely has its superfans within the Academy. Everyone who likes it, loves it, and she's a big reason why, locking up nearly every major accolade leading into the show, making her win a mere formality. While Supporting Actress is long known for upsets, there won't be one this year.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

An intriguing field of contenders, but another foregone conclusion, as CODA's Troy Kotsur not only gave a great, film-stealing performance as Frank Rossi, but is just the kind of hard working journeyman the Academy loves rewarding, with an inspirational story to boot. That he'll be the second deaf actor (and first since co-star Marlee Matlin) to win an Academy Award has only become more apparent with each passing week as CODA continues to surge. As for the rest, Belfast's Ciarán Hinds feels like an outlier in a "thanks for coming" kind of way, which isn't a slight on his performance so much as a testament to how stiff the competition is. 

Former winner J.K. Simmons impresses as William Frawley in Being the Ricardos, but the role itself just doesn't seem like enough, especially next to The Power of the Dog's Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit McPhee's. Unfortunately for Plemons, his character disappears entirely in the last half of that picture whereas the latter has more of an arc and carries the film's most crucial portion as the shy, eccentric Peter Gordon. As the center of the biggest twist and darkness on which the entire story rests, McPhee takes us on a journey, albeit one that might prove too uncomfortable for voters. And in Oscar's universe, subtle complexity never reign supreme. It's Kotsur's to lose, but he won't, making for what should be one of the night's biggest moments.               

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

The Academy's penchant for biopics and actresses portraying famous figures is on prominent display this year, with only Penelope Cruz and Olivia Colman playing fictitious characters in Parallel Mothers and The Lost Daughter, respectively. Cruz has a legitimate shot as a popular dark horse who many believe is the strongest contender on merit. It seems like Colman just won for The Favourite, but that's never stopped the Academy before (see Frances McDormand). An early frontrunner, Kidman lost ground when people actually saw her performance as Lucille Ball in Being The Ricardos and had wildly mixed reactions. 

Kristen Stewart is so, so good in Spencer and should probably be the hands down winner. What she did as Diana was endlessly intriguing and entirely unexpected, but the movie's just too off-putting for them, ranking as maybe the most un-commercial release of 2021. While I still wouldn't completely count Stewart out, Jessica Chastain's emerged as the clear favorite, reminding us that when voters assess performances as real life people, the biggest and flashiest often win the day. They want the most noticeable physical and emotional transformation and Chastain (as well as the film's makeup team) definitely provided it. Plus, she's overdue and beloved within the industry, all of which should have us wondering how we didn't foresee this outcome sooner. She checks every possible box, but it's still wide open. 

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Will Smith is the lock of the night. Most have forgotten Denzel's even in this category, Bardem's role is more skillfully charming than award-winning, Garfield willed himself to a well-deserved nod in the so-so Tick, Tick...Boom! In giving what's arguably the category's best performance as sociopathic cowboy Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog, Cumberbatch seemed like a viable pick months or even weeks ago until Smith started winning literally everything in sight. Dog's stock has dropped so much recently, it's now become a question whether it can cash-in on even one of its staggering 11 nominations anymore. 

Smith's performance as Richard Williams contains the hallmarks of what voters trip all over themselves to reward. Not to mention he's really good in it, navigating some tricky territory in playing the complicated (to say the least), but aspirational father and coach to daughters and future tennis superstars Venus and Serena. There's a reason Smith was earmarked from the jump to win for King Richard and his actual performance only reinforced that, exceeding the hype. We also have another long overdue actor who's universally liked, only making this that much easier a decision for them.          

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) 

So maybe it's not Sam Elliott's favorite film of the year, but a lot of people still really like (respectfully appreciate?) what Jane Campion did with The Power of the Dog. If that's the case, this category will be the ultimate test of how much goodwill it's retained over the past two months. If Campion somehow loses, Netflix can pack its bags, and even if she wins, there could still be a split with Director and Picture anyway. This field's a little more open than you'd think since Spielberg's visual contributions to West Side Story can't be undersold, Hamaguchi could still shock and Branagh is Branagh, which never hurts, even if Belfast peaked way too early. 

The only contender I can't envision them rewarding here is PTA, which is probably a compliment considering that (along with David Fincher) he's one of the greatest living filmmakers without a directing Oscar. He'll eventually win, just not for Licorice Pizza. Campion's still got this, even if it's  way closer than anyone previously thought. Of The Power of the Dog's 12 nods, this is the one you can feel safest predicting will fall in its favor, with career acknowledgment coming for an overdue Campion. It's good news for her that CODA directed itself or we might be having an entirely different conversation right now. 

BEST PICTURE
Belfast (Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers)
CODA (Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)
Drive My Car (Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer)
Dune (Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers)
King Richard (Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers)
Licorice Pizza (Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile
Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers)
West Side Story (Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)

Statistically impossible. That's what we've been hearing about the chances of CODA winning Best Picture with only 3 total nominations, no DGA, no editing or directing nods and no below-the-line recognition in other categories. But what a difference just a month makes, as that perception changed considerably with its SAG Ensemble victory and shocking WGA and PGA wins, the latter of which remains one of the more reliable Best Picture predictors. Still, this is the longest of long shots, putting it in the company of another PGA winner without a directing nod, the now reviled Driving Miss Daisy. But it can happen, mainly because CODA's sure to show up at number 1 or 2 on nearly all these ballots. They love this movie and what it represents so that's enough for an Academy that's always voted with their hearts before all else. Critical complaints that Apple+'s little indie that could isn't "cinematic enough" to win or "plays like a TV movie" won't matter. They only care about how it makes them feel, which is why it's emerged as such a threat. 

Whether CODA actually deserves this is a separate issue, especially since even its most ardent supporters admit it probably can't hold up to the long-term scrutiny that accompanies the often dreaded Best Picture label. The Power of the Dog is the kind of film that can withstand it, in little danger of being forgotten the next day or outright mocked like previous nominees Little Miss Sunshine or Juno, to which CODA has somewhat unfairly been compared. But winning might be the worst possible thing for it, a punchline in the making with a backlash that could eventually rival Crash. And that's coming from someone who really likes it a lot. 

As for everything else, there really isn't room for a surprise spoiler. My favorite, Don't Look Up, is too polarizing, Belfast's chances already died on the vine, Drive My Car's surprise nomination was reward enough, Dune could sweep all the tech categories, Licorice Pizza doesn't have enough broad support and Nightmare Alley's an afterthought at this point. If voters really wanted to compromise, the rags to riches story of King Richard is a viable solution, but it seems that ship has sailed, as has West Side Story's. Had that been a box office success, it would be far better positioned heading into the show. While I could later regret it or change my mind five or more times, the smart money's on CODA, as unlikely as that once seemed.  

2021 Oscar Predictions

Yes, this year's Oscar race was understandably kind of a disaster. But here we are, and while the annual chorus of industry dissenters and diehard cinephiles will cry that the Academy Awards just "don't matter anymore," they'll be watching no matter what, dissecting every minute of the inevitably overlong telecast. So rather than bemoan the fact that this show (like any current televised awards event) isn't reaching as broad an audience anymore, maybe it's time to celebrate who it is for. Viewed through that prism, there's actually a lot to look forward to when envelopes are opened Sunday night. Since no announcement was made regarding a formal host, we're led to assume there won't be one again, which might be for the best, especially given there's sure to be even more modifications due to social distancing guidelines. 

Catching up on the nominees and making informed (if not necessarily correct) predictions in regards to these outcomes was much easier with so many conveniently streaming titles. Eliminating my biggest roadblock as a fan and critic definitely helped, opening the door to not only see and review all but one of Best Picture nominees, but circle back and take in many of the other categories as well. It's still a cram session to an extent, but at least it's actually done before the telecast for a change. This also better enabled me to have some more investment in the race this year, even as it's looking like a tougher road than expected in the final stretch for my two favorites, Promising Young Woman and The Father (and to a lesser extent, Mank).

As far as the issue of diversity amongst the nominations, it's still more of an industry problem that's trickled into an Oscar one, casting doubt that forthcoming mandatory inclusion requirements for Best Picture nominees will do much to address the actual source of those difficulties. Moving forward will depend more on studio level involvement than AMPAS, who are still wildly flailing to pick up the slack, resulting in more diverse slate than usual this year.

Even as it remains impossible to read members' minds to determine how they'll vote, condensing those three sound categories into one should at least slightly improve everyone's scorecard. Last year yielded my best results since 2014, so I'm holding out hope that I'll at least successfully predict Best Picture after what's become an increasingly long, embarrassing streak of incorrectly forecasting the night's biggest prize. Below are the nominations, along with my predicted winners and analysis for the major categories. As usual, I'm retaining the right to make any alterations beforehand. But once that show starts, it's go time.

*Predicted Winners  

Animated Feature Film  

Onward    

Over the Moon

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul

Wolfwalkers

 

Animated Short Film

Burrow

Genius Loci

If Anything Happens I Love You

Opera

Yes-People

 

Documentary Feature

Collective

Crip Camp

The Mole Agent

My Octopus Teacher 

Time

 

Documentary Short Subject

Colette

A Concerto Is a Conversation

Do Not Split

Hunger Ward

A Love Song for Latasha

Live-Action Short Film

Feeling Through

The Letter Room

The Present

Two Distant Strangers

White Eye 

International Feature Film

Another Round (Denmark) 

Better Days (Hong Kong)

Collective (Romania) 

The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 

Film Editing

The Father (Yorgos Lamprinos)

Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

Promising Young Woman (Frédéric Thoraval)

Sound of Metal (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)  

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Alan Baumgarten)

Sound

Greyhound (Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman)

Mank (Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin)

News of the World (Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett)

Soul (Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker)

Sound of Metal (Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh)

Production Design

The Father (Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Mark Ricker, Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton)

Mank (Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale)

News of the World (David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan)

Tenet (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)

Costume Design

Emma (Alexandra Byrne)

Mank (Trish Summerville)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ann Roth)

Mulan (Bina Daigeler)

Pinocchio (Massimo Cantini Parrini)

Original Score

Da 5 Bloods (Terence Blanchard) 

Mank (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)

Minari (Emile Mosseri)

News of the World (James Newton Howard)

Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste)

Original Song

“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)

“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

“Húsavík” (Eurovision Song Contest)

“Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)

“Speak Now,” (One Night in Miami)

Makeup and Hairstyling

Emma (Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze)

Hillbilly Elegy (Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney and Matthew Mungle)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson)

Mank (Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams and Colleen LaBaff)

Pinocchio (Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti)

Visual Effects

Love and Monsters (Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox)

The Midnight Sky (Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins)

Mulan (Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram)

The One and Only Ivan (Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez)

Tenet (Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher)

Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah (Sean Bobbitt)

Mank (Erik Messerschmidt)

News of the World (Dariusz Wolski)

Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael)

Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern and Nina Pedrad)

The Father (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller)

Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)

The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

If the Oscar were given for most credited writers on a screenplay, Borat would surely have this in the bag. It's odd considering, that of all the nominees, the one that seemed to feature the most improvisation, utilized so many hands on its script. The White Tiger was a surprise inclusion to most and just fortunate to make it in. One Night in Miami underperformed in every category, making a victory here unlikely despite its merits. That leaves us with Nomadland and The Father, with fortune appearing to favor the former if only because its expected to run the table for the night and Zhao did such a commendable job distilling Jessica Bruder's non-fiction source material.

 

Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas and Keith Lucas)

Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) 

Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)

Sound of Metal (Darius Marder, Abraham Marder and Derek Cianfrance

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

The Academy really loves Sorkin, just not as a director, so if they were to honor his timely Chicago 7, it would undoubtedly be here for its screenplay. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal have been praised more for their performances than scripts, but if the former is caught up in a groundswell of support it isn't impossible this spoils with its socially relevant biographical slant. Supporting Actress is the only race in which Minari stands a chance, so a script win is probably far-fetched. This is the category Promising Young Woman seems most primed to grab. While it would do little to soften the blow of a potential Mulligan Best Actress loss, I'll take it anyway, especially amongst this competition. Even those lukewarm on PYW would have problems denying the originality and power of its clever, twisted script. This is Fennell's to lose. Let's hope she doesn't.     

 

Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 

Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 

Olivia Colman (The Father) 

Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 

Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Who can forget that look on Glenn Close's face when Olivia Colman swooped in and won what everyone assumed would be Close's long owed Best Actress statue for The Wife two years ago? It would be the cruelest of ironies if she lost to Colman again here, or maybe even crueler if Close  actually were to win for her widely reviled turn in Hillbilly Elegy. Given Oscar's history in this category, we can't put it past them. I loved former frontrunner Amanda Seyfried's performance in Mank, as did everyone. So, what happened? It did her no favors when the movie kind of died on the vine in terms of public perception, to the point that she's hardly even considered a possible spoiler, which is a shame. Borat's Maria Bakalova has been on a roll leading into this, but outside of very few instances (see Marissa Tomei) there isn't a strong precedent for the Academy rewarding work this broadly comedic, no matter how skilled. That leaves us with the underdog,Yuh-jung Youn, who just might pull this off. There's no better built-in story and we all know how the voters love that. Minari almost has to win something. This will probably be it.    

Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) 

Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) 

Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) 

Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) 

Another tough one. There was some concern for a little bit that Paul Raci's widely respected performance in Sound of Metal wouldn't make it in, which would have been unfathomable, though  hardly a new low for AMPAS. Well, he's there, just probably not winning. Cohen's entertaining work as Abby Hoffman in Chicago 7 is, rightly or wrongly, just not being taken seriously as a threat. I still contend Frank Langella gave the best performance in that film, even if it's possible he could have faced the same obstacle. Leslie Odom Jr. is a worthy winner for capturing the essence of Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami but he'd stand a better chance in a less crowded field. Some category confusion here, as both Kaluuya and Stanfield's performances could easily be considered for lead, especially the latter, who makes a stronger impression, if not necessarily the louder one. Kaluuya's performance is the one they'll honor.

Lead Actress

Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) 

Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday) 

Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 

Frances McDormand (Nomadland) 

Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) 

As the only nominee whose film hasn't landed in the public's conciousness at all, Pieces of a Woman's Vanessa Kirby is out, which isn't an indictment of the performance so much as a reflection of the way the wind's blowing right now. There's the feeling that McDormand's won too much already, but if anyone can overcome that, especially amidst all the Nomadland love, it's her. Viola Davis and Andra Day are running neck-and-neck for their musically inclined turns as Ma Rainey and Billie Holiday, respectively. While the latter boasts no other nominations, Day seems to have picked up momentum of late with her Globes win and the fact that her performance as the legendary crooner has just been better received than Davis' more flamboyant work. But what Davis has going for her is the opposite of McDormand in that voters will likely perceive she's long overdue for a win, despite already having a Supporting Actress statue on her mantle.

As the #MeToo avenger thwarting would be rapists and their enablers in Promising Young Woman, Carey Mulligan gave the best performance of the year in my favorite film. But she's definitely lost some momentum of late, having been embroiled in a minor controversy and coming up short in the precursors (even the Globes) while the Academy seems suddenly intent on rewarding SAG winner Davis. The thought of her triumphing alongside late co-star Chadwick Boseman is the kind of soul-affirming narrative that would have members frantically rushing to mark their ballots, even while most agree it's far from her best performance. But it's still a stain on the Academy that no black actress before or after Halle Berry has won in this category's history. If they want to fix that, there's no more deserving or widely respected a choice than Davis. Mulligan should win, but my worst Oscar instincts are telling me she won't. I'd love to be wrong. 

Lead Actor

Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) 

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) 

Anthony Hopkins (The Father) 

Gary Oldman (Mank) 

Steven Yeun (Minari)

The biggest lock of the night, as Boseman will surely join Peter Finch as the only other posthumous Oscar winner in this category What's worth noting is that the actor really never was given his due respect as a performer while alive, at least by the Oscars.What else could explain how his work in 42, Black Panther, Marshall, and most glaringly, Get On Up, received no recognition from the Academy? Now they have a chance to right that wrong, even if it's frustrating that his big breakthrough had to happen like this. It isn't often we affix the word "underrated" to someone who wins a posthumous Oscar, but here's a case where that designation definitely applies.

Boseman's only competition is BAFTA victor Hopkins, and it's here where circumstances do count since the acting legend would have assuredly won in any other year for his career best portrayal of a man in the throes of dementia. Minari's Steven Yeun is a non-starter, even if the nod will likely do a lot for his big screen prospects moving forward. After some very early momentum, Gary Oldman's chances for Mank went the way of Seyfried's for that film, while Riz Ahmed seems to have also inexplicably faded from the conversation. Brace for a highly emotional moment when Boseman's name is announced.    

Director

Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

David Fincher (Mank) 

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) 

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

The other lock of the night, as the inevitable Chloe Zhao victory checks a lot of the Academy's boxes. As only the second woman to take this honor, as well as the first Asian woman, the strongest argument for her is that she's completely deserving, as Nomadland's direction is arguably what made it soar. Many are still shocked Another Round's Vinterberg squeezed his way in, but good for him, as the inclusion should considerably raise his profile. Will David Fincher ever win an Oscar? Does he care? Doubtful, but it's not like many expected it to happen this year for Mank, given its somewhat mixed reception.While an undeniable achievement, Minari's unfortunately become a slot-filler at this point, with Lee Isaac Chung deserving of whatever post-Oscar boost he gets. Fennell's exciting, razor sharp direction of Promising Young Woman is that much more remarkable when you consider its challenging tone, but there's just no way voters are going there. We know this. Even if Nomadland somehow didn't take Best Picture, Zhao would still easily walk away with this one.  

Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

In tackling a now more suddenly urgent event from decades prior, The Trial of the Chicago 7 may seem prescient, but it's thought of in many circles as the category's weakest entry, feeling done for after coming out of the gate so strongly for Netflix. The same can almost be said for Mank, though it never really got off the ground this season at all. Minari's nod is reward enough, while Sound of Metal lacks the scope and breadth voters often go for when determining winners in this race. Rewarding Judas and the Black Messiah would send a strong message, but certain portions of that film hit harder than others and it already feels as if Supporting Actor is the first and only order of business with it. 

The year's most overlooked dark horse is the superb The Father, but there hasn't been a big push for the film in enough circles until recently and it lacks the widespread awareness typically associated with a Best Picture. If even Hopkins can't win for the performance of his life, it's hard to believe this upset is possible. Should Promising Young Woman accomplish the unthinkable it would probably be one of the darker recent winners. It's not a complete downer in the traditional sense, but you get the idea. They're just not doing it.

The only thing standing in Nomadland's way are complaints that the film brushes over Amazon's allegedly dangerous working conditions for elderly employees. This would matter more if this were a documentary about corporate malfeasance, but for the exact purposes of Zhao's story, it carries very little weight. Plus, we know how the Academy detests controversies slipping into their life-affirming worldview, so they won't be swayed. It's essentially a human tragedy, but one that gives them no more  despair than they can handle, emerging as the ideal flagbearer by addressing socially, politically, economically relevant issues in a non-controversial way. It expertly walks that Oscar tightrope and voters won't hate themselves afterwards, or at least not for reasons related to the film. This category's been a rollercoaster ride in recent years, but there just aren't many unpredictable options on the table this time around. Look for Director and Picture to match as Nomadland takes home the gold.