2020 Oscar Predictions

Well, this one really snuck up on us. The shortened Oscar season resulted in a mad scramble to get all the films released and seen within an increasingly shrinking window, culminating on February 9, when the 92nd Academy Awards telecast takes place from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. And now here we are. With less time for backlash to develop, smear campaigns to ensue and front runners to lose or gain footing, it'll be impossible to fully assess the implications of these unusual circumstances until it's over. But the bigger question might revolve around just how far the Academy's come in their goal of restoring relevancy to its brand and bringing more eyeballs to the telecast. While last year boasted box office heavy-hitters like Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther and A Star is Born, this one features better films (such as Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) that also happened to be gigantic hits as well.

With films like The Irishman and Marriage Story, 2019 also saw the first real display of awards dominance from Netflix and other streaming services, which are now becoming the go-to destination for contemporary adult dramas. While there are still complaints the Academy hasn't done enough to diversify and the battle to hold on to its stodgy traditions is playing out in real time with the 1917 vs. Parasite showdown, it does remain one of the few awards shows that make it about the movies. And despite still being too long by half, the decision to go hostless has recently led to a tighter, more watchable telecast that's been more undpredictable than usual, especially in the Best Picture race. My predictions are below, along with an analysis of some major categories. And of course, I'm retaining the option to make any adjustments until the show begins. There's a good chance I'll need to. 


*Predicted Winners
 
Animated Feature Film:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Animated Short Film:
Dcera
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Documentary Feature:
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Documentary Short Subject:
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Live Action Short Film:
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

International Feature Film:
Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite

Film Editing:
Ford v Ferrari (Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit  (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

Sound Editing:
Ford v Ferrari (Don Sylvester)
Joker (Alan Robert Murray)
1917 (Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Wylie Stateman)
Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker (Matthew Wood and David Acord)

Sound Mixing:
Ad Astra (Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano)
Ford vs. Ferrari (Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow)
Joker (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland)
1917 (Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano)

Production Design:
The Irishman (Bob Shaw and Regina Graves)
Jojo Rabbit (Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova)
1917 (Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh)
Parasite (Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee)

Costume Design:
The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)

Original Score:
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)

Original Song:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Bombshell (Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker)
Joker (Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou)
Judy (Jeremy Woodhead)
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White)
1917 (Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole)

Visual Effects:
Avengers: Endgame (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick)
The Irishman (Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli)
The Lion King (Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman)
1917 (Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy)

Cinematography:
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

This is a typically strong field that when closely examined does reveal a clear-cut favorite. The Irishman will best be remembered for Scorsese's direction and the performances rather than Zaillian's sprawling screenplay. It acually still has a better chance at Picture than here, despite those odds having also waned considerably in the past month. We all know what Joker's winning and The Two Popes in a non-starter, so it comes down to whether Waititi's Jojo Rabbit script made enough waves to displace the more polarizing Little Women as frontrunner. Strangely, it could have, as the Academy's opportunity to honor the popular, talented Greta Gerwig with her first Oscar and make amends for overlooking her in the Director category may have to wait. While Little Women always seemed bound to walk away with something, eleventh hour surges for Jojo and Parasite have hurt its chances.

Original Screenplay:
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han)

Some really big contenders here, but only one screenplay voters will be falling all over themselves to coronate. Knives Out's reward was this nomination. 1917 will be collecting other hardware left and right, but it's hard to remember the last war film that won a screenplay Oscar. Baumbach seemed like a lock for Marriage Story at one point, but it's lost a lost of its buzz quickly in this truncated season. Parasite, on the other hand, is peaking at just the right time, making it entirely possible it pulls off the upset. But Tarantino is synonomous with writing awards, having taken home two Oscars already. The consensus is that if OUATIH doesn't win anything else (which it will), we're at least likely to get another one of his crazy acceptance speeches for this category. But I'm not so sure. It's a very close call and a win for Parasite could be a sign of bigger things to come late in the telecast. Or not.

Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

She's due. No one in this category has a chance of upsetting Laura Dern for Marriage Story, an Oscar that seems as locked up as any other in recent memory. Even in a category historically famous for upsets, there's little to no chance of us getting one here. Kathy Bates is superb in Richard Jewell but Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, and Margot Robbie have to be considered the only "threats" because of the year each had, turning in potentially nominatable performances in other highly praised films. In Johansson's case, she's even a double nominee for Lead Actress. Pugh's Little Women work stands out as the best received of the bunch, and given the Academy's penchant for rewarding newcomers in this category, she has the least worst shot at beating Dern. But she won't. While Dern's performance in Marriage Story won't be called the most exciting or interesting of her career, it's solid enough, and that's what matters to voters looking to reward a likable person for a great career. In other words, they love her and it's time.

Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is Pitt's to lose. Pacino and Pesci will cancel each other out for The Irishman, with most believing that latter made a more meaningful impression in a true comeback performance. Despite being two of our most respected actors, the fact that the inclusions of Hanks and Hopkins seems odd is probably a sign their films don't have nearly enough support. For many, myself included, Pitt's performance as stuntman Cliff Booth in OUATIH is one of their favorites of the year, tapping into the actor's charisma and likablity like no other role before it. Combine that with him already being long overdue for a statue, this arguably qualifying as a leading role and a guaranteed acceptance speech of the night, his chances are looking pretty great. 

Lead Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

An unusually weak field this year, with Renee Zellweger a likely de facto winnner for the already fogotten Judy. The only "it's a thrill just to be nominated" contender is Cythia Erivo, who many feel took Nupita N'yongo's slot for Us. There's no question that the latter is a more compelling selection and probably would have made this a more intriguing race. As it stands, it couldn't be worse, with the very, very liberal Academy unlikely to honor Charlize Theron for playing Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly. And Bombshell's lost a lot of heat anyway. For voters, it may still seem too early to reward Saorise Ronan, but an upset's still possible. Scarlett Johansson's so good in Marriage Story, to the point that it might be my favorite performance of hers. But while it's hard to be dismissive of what feels like the most substantive work in the category, the Academy will probably find a way. They'll vote for the well-liked Zellweger, making a comeback playing a legendary movie star in a biopic. The perfect recipe for an Oscar win if there ever was one.  

Lead Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

No need to drag this out. Joaquin Phoenix, possibly our generation's greatest actor, will become the second performer in history to win an Oscar for the playing the Joker. Or more accurately, mentally ill, failed standup comedian, Arthur Fleck. And what a performance it is, as it's likely even his fellow nominees would have a rough time making the case he isn't deserving, regardless of anyone's feelings on the polarizing film. Banderas and Pryce squeezed their way in here, with little seen, but well regarded turns in Pain and Glory and The Two Popes, respectively. That's where their journeys end. Leo's great but it'll be Pitt's night. That leaves Adam Driver, Phoenix's most serious competititon. A month ago, this was closer, but Phoenix has really pulled away as Marriage Story faded into the background. In any other year, Driver would probably win. And it's a good bet he eventually will. Just not now. 

Director:
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

You'd think the Academy wouldn't resist the temptation to reward Martin Scorsese working at the peak of his powers in the twilight of his career, delivering an essential meditation on time and regret with The Irishman. But that's not exactly how they work. And boy is that movie long. Plus, in their minds, they already gave him his Oscar. The groundswell of industry support behind Phillips' direction of Joker, and the movie in general, was far greater than anticipated. So there's that. While a Tarantino victory for Original Screenplay (or even Best Picture) seems likelier than a win here, he has to still be considered a top threat, as does Bong Joon Ho, who's really come on strongly of late and has a legitimate claim on this prize with Parasite. We'll see if there's a split with Picture and Director, but you still have to go with Sam Mendes for 1917, knowing the Academy's historical affinity for war films and their likely appreciation of him telling a deeply personal family story that also connects on a universal level. 

Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

And then there were nine. Most were surprised, but elated, that Ford v Ferrari made it in. Same with JoJo Rabbit, and to a slightly lesser extent, Little Women. The Irishman and Marriage Story have lost some of their luster heading into a race where momentum means even more than usual. With its 11 nominations, Joker should be the odds-on favorite, and while I'd absolutely love to see it win, there's still that fear it's just too polarizing to get the number of votes necessary to pull this off. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is just as deserving, if not more so, but despite it being about movies, it may not be widely beloved enough by voters put off by the ending.  

1917 and Parasite are more up the Academy's alley and if the Foreign Film category (recently renamed International Feature Film category) didn't exist, then the suddenly red hot Parasite would become the first foreign language Best Picture winner. It still might, but my money's on the same obstacle that befell Roma last year, costing it the trophy. This is why it might be a good idea to eliminate that and the Animated Feature category, so those designated genre films can get a fair shot at the big prize.

Oscar traditions die hard, so put your money on the late-blooming 1917, which gives voters yet another reason to engage in one of their favorite pastimes: honoring a war film. It's something they haven't done since The Hurt Locker over a decade ago so we're due to take our vitamins. It's only drawback is the noticeable lack of an editing nomination, but even that isn't the dealbreaker it once was. Not being able to comfortably predict this outcome should only make the show that much better. In a virtual dead heat with Parasite, 1917 seems to be the likeliest and safest bet. Whether that translates into a win remains to be seen.