2022 Oscar Predictions

The good news first. If you're a fan and familiar with this year's nominees, there are some really tight races and compelling scenarios to weigh heading into Sunday's 94th Oscars. And it's basically a done deal that for the first time in the Academy's long and illustrious history that the coveted Best Picture prize will be won by a streaming service. The only question is which one, as that category has suddenly shaped into an extremely close two-horse race featuring a pair of films that couldn't be more diametrically opposed in approach, style and content. Add on top of that some eclectic acting nominations and it's sure to be an exciting predictions night for critics and prognosticators who religiously follow this. 

Now the bad news. The AMPAS still hasn't found a way to capture the zeitgeist or lure mainstream audiences to the show, whatever that means anymore. With theaters now exclusively reserved for the special attraction blockbusters and everything else going straight to streaming, we have another year of underseen nominees the general public couldn't care less about. And trying to shoehorn more popular titles onto the show for ratings by instituting a people's choice vote just puts a band-aid on what's become a far larger problem.

With ABC still recovering from the lingering hangover from last year's disaster, we've had a clumsy, last minute rollout of multiple hosts (after a three year streak of none) and a highly controversial decision to pre-tape 8 categories (including biggies like editing and costume design) as an intended time saver. Of course, whatever segments replace that are likely tell the tale of how bearable the show will be. Here's an idea: Don't proudly announce bad ideas anymore, work on having a good, tight telecast with one outside-of-the-box host and go back to five Best Picture nominees. I know, easier said than done. 

On the bright side, The Power of the Dog vs. CODA Best Picture showdown is a nail biter and having seen the majority of nominees before the show my prediction post this year has more of a "will win, should win" vibe to it. My predictions are listed below, along with a more in-depth analysis of the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to make possible changes or adjustments before the telecast. But once show time comes around, that's it.  

*Predicted Winners  

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto (Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Luca (Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer
and Peter Del Vecho)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art (Joanna Quinn and Les Mills)
Bestia (Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz)
Boxballet (Anton Dyakov)
Robin Robin (Dan Ojari and Mikey Please)
The Windshield Wiper (Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension (Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell)
Attica (Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sorensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Summer of Soul (Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein)
Writing With Fire (Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible (Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean)
Lead Me Home (Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk)
The Queen of Basketball (Ben Proudfoot)
Three Songs for Benazir (Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei)
When We Were Bullies (Jay Rosenblatt)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run (Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger)
The Dress (Tadeusz Lysiak and Maciej Ślesicki)
The Long Goodbye (Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed)
On My Mind (Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson)
Please Hold (K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

BEST SOUND
Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri)
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett)
No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor)
The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb)
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune (production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Nightmare Alley (production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (production design: Grant Major; set decoration: Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (production design: Stefan Dechant; set decoration: Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngelo)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” — music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” — music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” — music and lyrics by Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” — music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” — music and lyrics by Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America (Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer)
Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon)
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh)
House of Gucci (Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer)
Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and
Dan Sudick)
No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA (screenplay by Siân Heder)
Drive My Car (screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth)
The Lost Daughter (written by Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (written by Jane Campion)

A surprisingly competitive category and one of the toughest to predict, mainly because it'll provide a major clue as to how Best Picture shakes out. CODA, fresh off a WGA win and riding a tidal wave of momentum, looks to take out The Power of the Dog here first and just might. As the only adapted screenplay without a corresponding BP nod, Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter has an uphill battle, as does Dune, which should be busy cleaning up in the technical categories. Drive My Car overperformed nomination-wise, so while still lacks in really broad appeal, a shocking upset isn't impossible. But it comes back to the big two, with the edge going to CODA, if only because the emotional consensus is starting to look unstoppable. Still, what Campion did with Thomas Savage's novel can't be discounted, nor can The Power of the Dog's precursor haul and sheer number of nominations. It's taken some hits lately but there's still a lot of respect left for it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast (written by Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (screenplay by Adam McKay; story by Adam McKay & David Sirota)
King Richard (written by Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (written by Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Worst Person in the World (written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)

Another close race. Don't Look Up and The Worst Person in the World are filling out the category, but have no real shot. King Richard is definitely in a far better position to win than either, but Baylin's solid screenplay just hasn't been honored enough in other places to make me feel comfortable predicting that upset. It almost seems like years ago that Belfast was actually considered the Best Picture frontrunner, as it's been losing steam by the second heading into the final stretch. Can it still win here? Probably. Everyone seems to like Branagh and his charmer of a movie well enough that they'd want to reward it somewhere. PTA's Licorice Pizza script is coming on strong and has a surprising amount of support that could translate into votes, despite that nagging voice telling us "it's just not the Academy's thing." But despite it falling off the radar, I just can't see them sending Belfast home empty-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Ariana DeBose has this in the bag. Voters love symmetry and there would be no better recent example than DeBose winning for the same role her West Side Story co-star Rita Moreno did in the 1961, marking an Oscar first. Ellis, Dench and Buckley all did commendable work in their films but they've basically become stepping stones on DeBose's path to the podium and a gold statue. But as impressive as she was in the film, it's not the best performance in this category, or even in West Side Story, as Rachel Zegler and Mike Faist could both lay claim to that.  

Whatever you may think of The Power of the Dog, Kirsten Dunst's transformative work in it isn't easy to shake and ranks among the best things she's done in her entire career. Of everyone, she's the strongest threat to DeBose and deserves the win, but this race was decided months ago. It's a lock, not to mention a way to reward a movie that financially underperformed, but definitely has its superfans within the Academy. Everyone who likes it, loves it, and she's a big reason why, locking up nearly every major accolade leading into the show, making her win a mere formality. While Supporting Actress is long known for upsets, there won't be one this year.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

An intriguing field of contenders, but another foregone conclusion, as CODA's Troy Kotsur not only gave a great, film-stealing performance as Frank Rossi, but is just the kind of hard working journeyman the Academy loves rewarding, with an inspirational story to boot. That he'll be the second deaf actor (and first since co-star Marlee Matlin) to win an Academy Award has only become more apparent with each passing week as CODA continues to surge. As for the rest, Belfast's Ciarán Hinds feels like an outlier in a "thanks for coming" kind of way, which isn't a slight on his performance so much as a testament to how stiff the competition is. 

Former winner J.K. Simmons impresses as William Frawley in Being the Ricardos, but the role itself just doesn't seem like enough, especially next to The Power of the Dog's Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit McPhee's. Unfortunately for Plemons, his character disappears entirely in the last half of that picture whereas the latter has more of an arc and carries the film's most crucial portion as the shy, eccentric Peter Gordon. As the center of the biggest twist and darkness on which the entire story rests, McPhee takes us on a journey, albeit one that might prove too uncomfortable for voters. And in Oscar's universe, subtle complexity never reign supreme. It's Kotsur's to lose, but he won't, making for what should be one of the night's biggest moments.               

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

The Academy's penchant for biopics and actresses portraying famous figures is on prominent display this year, with only Penelope Cruz and Olivia Colman playing fictitious characters in Parallel Mothers and The Lost Daughter, respectively. Cruz has a legitimate shot as a popular dark horse who many believe is the strongest contender on merit. It seems like Colman just won for The Favourite, but that's never stopped the Academy before (see Frances McDormand). An early frontrunner, Kidman lost ground when people actually saw her performance as Lucille Ball in Being The Ricardos and had wildly mixed reactions. 

Kristen Stewart is so, so good in Spencer and should probably be the hands down winner. What she did as Diana was endlessly intriguing and entirely unexpected, but the movie's just too off-putting for them, ranking as maybe the most un-commercial release of 2021. While I still wouldn't completely count Stewart out, Jessica Chastain's emerged as the clear favorite, reminding us that when voters assess performances as real life people, the biggest and flashiest often win the day. They want the most noticeable physical and emotional transformation and Chastain (as well as the film's makeup team) definitely provided it. Plus, she's overdue and beloved within the industry, all of which should have us wondering how we didn't foresee this outcome sooner. She checks every possible box, but it's still wide open. 

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Will Smith is the lock of the night. Most have forgotten Denzel's even in this category, Bardem's role is more skillfully charming than award-winning, Garfield willed himself to a well-deserved nod in the so-so Tick, Tick...Boom! In giving what's arguably the category's best performance as sociopathic cowboy Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog, Cumberbatch seemed like a viable pick months or even weeks ago until Smith started winning literally everything in sight. Dog's stock has dropped so much recently, it's now become a question whether it can cash-in on even one of its staggering 11 nominations anymore. 

Smith's performance as Richard Williams contains the hallmarks of what voters trip all over themselves to reward. Not to mention he's really good in it, navigating some tricky territory in playing the complicated (to say the least), but aspirational father and coach to daughters and future tennis superstars Venus and Serena. There's a reason Smith was earmarked from the jump to win for King Richard and his actual performance only reinforced that, exceeding the hype. We also have another long overdue actor who's universally liked, only making this that much easier a decision for them.          

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) 

So maybe it's not Sam Elliott's favorite film of the year, but a lot of people still really like (respectfully appreciate?) what Jane Campion did with The Power of the Dog. If that's the case, this category will be the ultimate test of how much goodwill it's retained over the past two months. If Campion somehow loses, Netflix can pack its bags, and even if she wins, there could still be a split with Director and Picture anyway. This field's a little more open than you'd think since Spielberg's visual contributions to West Side Story can't be undersold, Hamaguchi could still shock and Branagh is Branagh, which never hurts, even if Belfast peaked way too early. 

The only contender I can't envision them rewarding here is PTA, which is probably a compliment considering that (along with David Fincher) he's one of the greatest living filmmakers without a directing Oscar. He'll eventually win, just not for Licorice Pizza. Campion's still got this, even if it's  way closer than anyone previously thought. Of The Power of the Dog's 12 nods, this is the one you can feel safest predicting will fall in its favor, with career acknowledgment coming for an overdue Campion. It's good news for her that CODA directed itself or we might be having an entirely different conversation right now. 

BEST PICTURE
Belfast (Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers)
CODA (Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)
Drive My Car (Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer)
Dune (Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers)
King Richard (Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers)
Licorice Pizza (Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile
Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers)
West Side Story (Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)

Statistically impossible. That's what we've been hearing about the chances of CODA winning Best Picture with only 3 total nominations, no DGA, no editing or directing nods and no below-the-line recognition in other categories. But what a difference just a month makes, as that perception changed considerably with its SAG Ensemble victory and shocking WGA and PGA wins, the latter of which remains one of the more reliable Best Picture predictors. Still, this is the longest of long shots, putting it in the company of another PGA winner without a directing nod, the now reviled Driving Miss Daisy. But it can happen, mainly because CODA's sure to show up at number 1 or 2 on nearly all these ballots. They love this movie and what it represents so that's enough for an Academy that's always voted with their hearts before all else. Critical complaints that Apple+'s little indie that could isn't "cinematic enough" to win or "plays like a TV movie" won't matter. They only care about how it makes them feel, which is why it's emerged as such a threat. 

Whether CODA actually deserves this is a separate issue, especially since even its most ardent supporters admit it probably can't hold up to the long-term scrutiny that accompanies the often dreaded Best Picture label. The Power of the Dog is the kind of film that can withstand it, in little danger of being forgotten the next day or outright mocked like previous nominees Little Miss Sunshine or Juno, to which CODA has somewhat unfairly been compared. But winning might be the worst possible thing for it, a punchline in the making with a backlash that could eventually rival Crash. And that's coming from someone who really likes it a lot. 

As for everything else, there really isn't room for a surprise spoiler. My favorite, Don't Look Up, is too polarizing, Belfast's chances already died on the vine, Drive My Car's surprise nomination was reward enough, Dune could sweep all the tech categories, Licorice Pizza doesn't have enough broad support and Nightmare Alley's an afterthought at this point. If voters really wanted to compromise, the rags to riches story of King Richard is a viable solution, but it seems that ship has sailed, as has West Side Story's. Had that been a box office success, it would be far better positioned heading into the show. While I could later regret it or change my mind five or more times, the smart money's on CODA, as unlikely as that once seemed.