Violent Night

Director: Tommy Wirkola
Starring: David Harbour, John Leguizamo, Alex Hassell, Alexis Louder, Edi Patterson, Cam Gigandet, Leah Brady, Beverly D'Angelo, André Eriksen, Brendan Fletcher, Mike Dopud, Alexander Elliot, Mitra Suri
Running Time: 107 min.
Rating: R

★★★ (out of ★★★★)

It's easy to forget that while actor David Harbour first entered the public consciousness as Jim Hopper on Netflix's Stranger Things, he's been kicking around on screen for years in supporting parts, some more noteworthy than others. He was one of those reliable faces you'd recognize from various projects, even if you didn't know his name. Recently, that all changed, opening the door for lead roles in 2019's Hellboy reboot, and now Violent Night, where he plays a burnt out, beer swilling Santa Claus. It's the ideal role for him, as the gruff, no-nonsense, anti-hero persona he's perfected as Hopper just naturally lends itself to a twisted take on St. Nick. 

Director Tommy Wirkola goes for a Bad Santa meets Die Hard vibe, but audiences might also be  reminded of 2021's Bob Odenkirk-starring vehicle, Nobody, where circumstances suddenly push the unlikeliest of action heroes into vigilante mode. And if the obvious difference is Harbour's hulking physical presence, that's offset by the role he's asked to take on. He's no ordinary department store Santa, but the real deal. And despite a natural inclination to roll your eyes at that, this choice ultimately makes the film more satisfying than it would otherwise be, cleverly mixing magical elements with a barrage of bullets and beatdowns.

As Santa Claus (Harbour) gets drunk at bar in England on Christmas Eve, lamenting the challenges of his job, Jason Lightstone (Alex Hassell), along with his estranged wife Linda (Alexis Louder) and 7-year-old daughter Trudy (Leah Brady), head over to his mother Getrude's (Beverly D'Angelo) Greenwich, Connecticut mansion for the holiday. Also attending are Jason's self-absorbed, alcoholic sister Alva (Edie Patterson), her social media-obsessed son Bert (Alexander Elliot) and aspiring action movie star boyfriend Morgan Steel (Cam Gigandet). 

When a soused Santa lands at the Lightstone estate to drop off gifts, so do a gang of mercenaries posing as caterers. Going by Christmas-themed code names, they're led by the ruthless "Scrooge" (John Leguizamo), who takes the family hostage, planning to steal the $300 million in cash stashed away in the mansion's vault. Suddenly in the wrong place at the wrong time, Santa's discovered and must fight for his life to protect himself and the Lightstones, as young Trudy gradually helps him rediscover his appreciation for Christmas along the way.

Though Wirkola's looking to do more than simply spoof the filthy rich, nearly all the characters are selfish and detestable, with the exceptions of Jason, Linda and daughter Trudy, who are decent people dealing with toxic relatives. Foul-mouthed matriarch Gertrude rules the roost, but sister Alva is a spoiled suck-up with an irritating son and dumb, narcissistic boyfriend. All of this is effectively established within minutes and before the real fun begins with the arrival of Scrooge and his merry band of assassins. 

Between this and The Menu, John Leguizamo has been on a roll lately in these darkly comedic satires and his part here is larger than you'd expect, carrying long stretches of the film as the head baddie with a traumatizing Christmas history. Equally menacing and sarcastic, he's having a blast here and there's a good amount of buildup to his eventual confrontation with St. Nick, which doesn't disappoint. And it wouldn't seem immediately apparent just how equipped Harbor is for this part until you see everything he does with it. 

Screenwriters Pat Casey and Josh Miller take an ambitious route, concocting a brief but memorable Santa backstory to explain his violent tendencies while seamlessly working in the more fantastical holiday elements. It also helps that Harbour doesn't play him as some kind of invincible superhero, but a grizzled barroom brawler in over his head, solemnly reminiscing about his marriage and expressing disillusionment with how greed and commercialization has overtaken Christmas. Once he shows up at the mansion and is uncovered by Scrooge's squad, a violent cat-and-mouse game ensues, until the Lightstone's extraction team arrives, leading to some twists and turns. 

Trudy is the only character who believes this guy is really Santa and the bond the two form via walkie-talkie is probably the film's best sub-plot, accompanied by a Home Alone-inspired booby trap scene that's surprisingly successful at invoking the tone and comedic spirit of that holiday classic. This not feeling forced or out of place is an accomplishment in itself, as are the plethora of fight sequences, including a sensational one set to Bryan Adam's "Christmas Time." 

One of the more audacious yuletide entries the genre's gotten in a while, Violent Night features a commanding lead turn and an inspired premise that's better executed than its description and advertising implies. The ending shouldn't work, yet strangely does, mainly because Wirkola clearly the sets the rules for this universe at the beginning and stays consistent throughout. That's there's already a sequel in the works should come as no surprise since it's easy to envision this character returning for more season's beatings. Its ability to merge wildly inventive violence with childlike Christmas fantasy is what most impresses, along with a performance from Harbour that proves he's an action star in the making.     

She Said

Director: Maria Schrader
Starring: Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan, Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Jennifer Ehle, Lola Peticrew, Samantha Morton, Molly Windsor, Ashley Judd, Zach Grenier, Peter Friedman, Tom Pelphrey, Angela Yeoh, Keilly McQuail, Mike Houston, James Austin Johnson, Gwyneth Paltrow 
Running Time: 129 min.
Rating: R

★★★ (out of ★★★★)

Maria Schrader's She Said doesn't give any false illusions as to what it is or pretend to be some kind of escape from reality. This much is clear in an early scene from 2016 when we hear Donald Trump (voiced by SNL's James Austin Johnson) screaming at a reporter about the leaked Access Hollywood tape. The fallout from that would be minimal, if nonexistent, serving as a reminder that those in power say what they want only until the public decides they've heard enough. But this isn't about him, at least not directly. Rather, it's the jumping off point that emboldens those investigating Harvey Weinstein, whose sexual abuses stand in a category of its own. 

The film depicts how Weinstein bullied and silenced victims into staying quiet for decades, with a lot of help along the way. And while it's easy to see how he got away with it in this context, what's most ironic about that Trump scene is how it might might be the film's only sensationalistic moment. In showing very little, Schrader tells a lot, with a tone similar to classic investigative journalism procedurals like All The President's Men and Spotlight. Based on the 2019 book widely credited for igniting the #MeToo movement, it's full of uncomfortable, disturbing testimonials from Weinstein victims that's direct and no-nonsense enough to be mistaken for a documentary. 

Schrader keeps things moving while Screenwriter Rebecca Lenkiewicz takes a practical, fact-based approach, both making as formidable a team as the two leads driving this story. It may not be everyone's idea of edge-of-your-seat suspense and there are only so many different ways to hear about Weinstein removing his bathrobe and demanding a massage, but it happened. So, as sickeningly repetitive as it is to hear, the survivors lived this, and listening to how it permanently altered them provides plenty of unexpected tension. For those who appreciate films that get into the nuts and bolts of print journalism, there's a lot to respect, as the most salacious of stories is presented in a sensibly straightforward style that doesn't pull punches.

It's 2017 when New York Times reporter Jodi Kantor (Zoe Kazan) receives a tip from actress Rose McGowen (voiced by Keilly McQuail) regarding an alleged sexual assault she experienced at the hands of Miramax head Harvey Weinstein when she was 23. After speaking with other prominent actresses who refuse to be named for fear of career ramifications, Kantor enlists the help of fellow Times reporter Megan Twohey (Carey Mulligan). Together, they uncover a trail of allegations, hush money payments and settlements linked to Weinstein over the years, but face an uphill battle, with many of the women having signed NDAs that prevent them from talking. 

Digging deeper with each new interview with former employees and assistants, an alarming pattern emerges, along with the possibility of a massive cover-up that extends far beyond the Miramax offices and into the legal realm itself. With the full support of Times editors Dean Baquet (Andre Braugher) and Rebecca Corbett (Patricia Clarkson), Kanto and Twohey move forward despite mounting pressure threats against their sources. Undeterred, they work to get these women heard and expose Weinstein's crimes, whatever the cost.

As strong as Mulligan and Kazan are separately in their scenes, they're even better together, entirely believable as reporters with differing personalities and tactics sharing the same goal. Twohey is the  more seasoned and aggressive of the two, reflected by her cynical, somewhat hardened nature. In contrast, Kantor is a deer in headlights, struggling to persuade sources to talk to her and go on the record. But as the investigation wears on, we see how their styles compliment each other, especially when circumstances call for one to rein the other in.

Kantor's empathy and likability proves to be an asset in dealing with the victims while Twohey's strength lies in navigating legal obstacles that derailed all previous attempts to nail Weinstein. Both actresses hit these notes perfectly, especially Mulligan whose character is all business, even while emotionally collapsing under the weight post-partum depression. She convincingly plays Twohey as if uncovering the truth is not only a mission for justice, but an escape that could make her feel full again. It's obvious how personal this is for both, with Schrader trusting the actresses to show it and leave the telling to the victims. Balancing this with the strategizing taking place within the Times' offices, she impressively showcases the processes that surround an investigative undertaking of this magnitude. 

In devastating turns, Samantha Morton and Jennifer Ehle play ex Weinstein assistants, one of whom sacrifices her career to protect a friend while the other's traumatic sexual assault is dredged up at the worst possible moment. As powerful flashbacks show their days at Miramax, both are now forced to contemplate the potential ramifications of coming forward and reopening deep emotional wounds. But Schrader avoids tastelessly recreating the assaults, instead detailing the events that led to them and its lasting psychological impact.

Even if we only hear Weinstein (Mike Houston) yelling over the phone and briefly catch sight of this loud brute at the end, it's still more than enough for him to make the worst possible impression. Braugher is particularly good in his scenes handling him, as he and Clarkson give probably the two most overlooked performances, credible every step of the way as practical but fair editors. And while famous Weinstein victim Gwyneth Paltrow does make a vocal cameo as herself, Ashley Judd appears full-on, essentially retracing the actual steps she took to come forward and expose him. 

Schrader clears all these creative hurdles in an unfussy manner since anything less could cause a serious, real-life topic to come across as the type of tabloid smut this film's rallying against. Still, it's impressive how thorough the script is in presenting exactly what happened and how. She Said finds a comfortable middle ground, neither a condescending lesson for viewers already familiar with journalism's inner workings or a bore to those who aren't. That we know the end result of Weinstein's trail of terror hardly dampers the proceedings, only further establishing it as a morality tale better suited to the big screen than most suspected.     

Burning Questions from the 2023 Oscars

Wasn't it weird seeing someone host again?

Were you counting down the seconds until Jimmy Kimmel joked about the slap?

Didn't it take much longer than you expected? 

Actually, didn't his whole monologue take longer than you expected? 

But wasn't it still pretty good overall? 

Can you ever go wrong referencing Encino Man?

Were you worried Kimmel was going to talk about The Fabelmans all night? 

Did I not appreciate his Babylon joke? 

Is it possible he's right about James Cameron not being able to sit through his own movies?

Or enjoying drowning Kate Winslet?

Kimmel sure does like picking on Cameron, doesn't he? 

Do you think Cameron even cares?

Wasn't he spot on on about the Academy rewarding assault with a Best Actor Oscar?

And about everyone embarrassingly going along with it?

Will Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt be forever linked because of...Jungle Cruise? 

If you had to predict who'd present the first Oscar, wouldn't Johnson be an odds on favorite?

Wouldn't it be a bad start to miss Animated Feature considering how obvious that win was? 

Did you remember who won the supporting Oscars last year?

Wasn't the Ke Huy Quan moment every bit as special as we knew it would be?

After seeing Jamie Lee Curtis win, didn't it almost seem inevitable that she had to? 

Then again, was that a tough category to predict or what? 

How about her shout out to Halloween fans? 

Did Angela Bassett look...less than happy?

Were you thinking this was a good indication of how things would go for EEAAO?

Didn't that Diane Warren song sound like something you'd hear at the dentist's office?

Did you get the impression this nomination wouldn't end her 14-time losing streak? 

So, we're introducing movie trailers on the show now?

Doesn't EEAAO totally seem like David Byrne's type of movie?

As a Best Picture nominee, isn't Women Talking just a complete afterthought?

Not a question but...Jennifer Connelly!

Was it really necessary to keep THAT shot from The Whale on the screen while makeup artist Adrien Morot accepted his Oscar? 

Did this just ensure Connelly won't ever agree to return? 

Between Disney and Warner Bros., was this movie studios tribute night? 

When is the Orion Pictures montage?

Wasn't it great to see Gizmo?

And (not the real) Jenny The Donkey?

When will I stop picking Elvis as a winner in the craft categories?

Does this bode poorly for Austin Butler?

International Feature: most locked victory of the night?

Wasn't it funny when Kimmel said this was about the time in the show that people are missing the slapping?

Is Elizabeth Olsen the only actress to have actually gained respect and acting cred from starring in huge franchise movies?  

Were you worried/hoping My Year of Dicks would win Best Animated Short? 

Were you expecting such a stripped down performance from Lady Gaga?

Especially considering the song's from Top Gun: Maverick?

But wasn't it the best one so far? 

Did Hugh Grant call himself a scrotum?

Again, not a question but Babylon should have won for Production Design.

Again, not a question by Babylon should have won for Original Score.

Will that film ever be able to shake the stench of its box office failure?

They're really going to deny the 91-year-old John Williams also?

Is All Quiet cleaning up or what?

Are we back to regretting including all the categories on the show?

Just wasn't Elizabeth Banks' night, was it?

Aren't the Oscars a fitting venue for Cocaine Bear? 

Isn't "We just want to thank our families" the perfect place to cut a winner's speech off? 

Should the FCC prepare for another batch of pointless complaints for Rihanna's performance?

Remember those dark days when Sound was separated into two categories?

Did Kimmel really just joke about Robert Blake being in the In Memoriam montage? 

Wasn't his audience bit fairly quick and painless?

Did you think Chandrabose would sing through all of the "Naatu Naatu" acceptance speech?

Did John Travolta have a tough time getting through that In Memoriam intro or what?

When you saw the first name in the montage did it then become obvious why?

Um, Anne Heche?

Tom Sizemore?

Leslie Jordan?

These Daniels guys sure are characters aren't they? 

Fair to say Will Smith not presenting Best Actress? 

Hoping Kimmel really was joking about stretching the remaining awards out?

Weren't the presenter pairings fairly solid all night ?

About ten seconds before Best Actor was announced, why was I regretting my Austin Butler prediction?

Did the result answer that question? 

Is Brendan Fraser winning the happiest I've been to get a major category wrong?

Were you relieved Cate Blanchett didn't storm the stage in character as Lydia Tár when Michelle Yeoh won?

Given how the night went, how big a shock would it have been if EEAAO lost?

It took 95 years for a sci-fi film to win Best Picture?

Knowing the Academy's tastes, is anyone surprised?

Does it get any better than seeing Ke Huy Quan reunited with Harrison Ford onstage?

Didn't this seem like one of the more competently produced shows in recent years?  

Especially last year's?

Should we just accept that the Oscars feeling and being too long goes with the territory at this point?

Wasn't the "Telecasts Without Incident" gag a good closer?

2023 Oscar Predictions

You hear it all the time. "If so and so wins Best Picture, it's the end of the Oscars." For whatever reason, statements like that seem to have become more prevalent in the past five years, regardless of what's favored to win. But if we can be certain about anything, it's that the Academy Awards have been around for almost a century and will continue to air somewhere no matter how many people complain or the depths to which the telecast's viewership numbers sink. So if frontrunner Everything, Everywhere All at Once has drawn the ire of those deeming it unworthy of 11 nominations, it's important to remember how often we've been down this road, and will be again.

The Oscars will be fine and no one should be spiraling into madness over something they emphatically claim to care nothing about. But that's the catch, isn't it? We do care because it's good to see quality work recognized and rewarded, even while sometimes vehemently disagreeing with the Academy's definition of that. Yes, the telecast itself is often a slog, with too many Best Picture nominees, show catastrophes like on stage assaults, wrong winners being read and favorites getting snubbed, but it's still the Oscars and that always counts for something. Plus it looks like we'll actually have a host this year.

As nice as it would be nice for the actual movies to make headlines for a change, I don't subscribe to the theory that films should rack up trophies for getting people into theaters again or "saving the moviegoing experience." If an insanely popular title like Top Gun: Maverick was to win the big prize, it should do so on creative merit, but we know how this works by now, as a vote can often say more about the tastes and proclivities of who's casting it than the movie itself. The good news is that the Academy rarely nominates garbage, clearing an admittedly low bar other awards bodies frequently don't.

With a much harder field to predict than usual, replicating my 23/24 score from last year feels like an impossibility with this many key races still up in the air, especially Best Actor and Supporting Actress,  which are close enough to be decided by a coin flip. It's worth noting this is the first year in some time (maybe ever) that I've seen the majority of films and performances nominated. That still may not help, but it's nice to be able to chime in with a "should win" for a change. Below are the predictions, along with some depth analysis for the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to change any picks until the start of the show.  

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Tár (Monika Willi)

BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
Elvis (Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Bev Dunn)
Babylon (Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole)
The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth Carter)
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams) 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems)
"Hold My Hand," Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga & BloodPop)
"Naatu Naatu," RRR (M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose)
"Applause," Tell It Like a Woman (Diane Warren)
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (Ryan Lott, David Byrne & Mitski) 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front 
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Livng (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig & Justin Marks)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley) 

Both All Quiet and Top Gun are action oriented, director-driven vehicles more powered by action and visuals than words. Still, the nine nominations accumulated by the former means it can't completely be discounted from pulling off an upset. Glass Onion is a further reach, as Rian Johnson's admittedly well constructed script just doesn't have enough heft or consensus appeal to make it a threat here, especially against these heavier hitting nominees.Voters would go for Living, if only anyone noticed or remembered it's been nominated. So in a surprisingly thin field, it's not hard to see how Sarah Polley's Women Talking would have the edge given the source material's literary pedigree its surprise Best Picture nod. I'll consider this a make-up win for Polley, whose best film, the unnominated Take This Waltz, deserved to clean up over a decade ago.  

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tár (Todd Field)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

This one's far more interesting and competitive, as the category's stacked with all Best Picture nominees. You'd figure this would favor EEAAO, and it does, but none of the others can be counted out, except maybe Triangle of Sadness. Banshees could take this since McDonagh is a stalwart here, having previously earned nominations for In Bruges and Three Billboards, but there's this nagging feeling the film may have peaked too early. Tár is foremost a directing and acting achievement while The Fabelmans could earn serious points for Kushner and Spielberg's ability to shape and mold the latter's life into a cohesive screenplay that does the legendary director's early life justice. But we know where all the momentum is and should brace ourselves for this being one of many EEAAO wins.        

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

What was that about a coin toss? In a category that always carries some degree of unpredictability each year, this race is unusually tight. Whenever it's down to two, there's a good chance anything can happen, including a splitting of votes that allows a deserving underdog like Banshees' Kerry Condon to sneak in, especially given her recent BAFTA victory. And while the temptation's there to dismiss The Whale's Hong Chau, anything's possible. Unfortunately, my preferred choice of Stephanie Hsu seems unlikelier, which is a shame since a strong argument can be made she's the heart and soul of EEAAO rather than co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, who steps way outside the box as quirky IRS auditor Dierdre Beaubierdre. 

Fresh off a SAG win, Curtis has momentum, industry wide likeability and would give a terrific speech that gets people talking the next day. But if it's a career award then Angela Bassett seems just as worthy for her role as Queen Ramonda in Wakanda Forever, making her the first Oscar winner in an MCU film. You could even argue she should already have a trophy for either What's Love Got To Do With It or Strange Days. What this may come down to is a test of EEAAO's potential dominance and an early test of how smitten voters really are with it. Either Curtis carried by the tide or respect for Bassett wins out. Almost too close to call.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

The only true lock of the night. All these performances are impressive but there's only one actor here everyone's rooting for. This goes for critics, viewers, voters and probably even a few of his fellow nominees in this category. Watching Ke Huy Quan rush the stage to accept his Oscar go down as one of those special awards moments played on endless repeat for years to come. The only thing capable of topping it should be the speech, since there's little doubt The Goonies and Temple of Doom star will be thanking a certain nominated director sitting in the front row. It says a lot that even those who don't care for EEAAO still agree he's the best part of the film and completely deserves this.

Kerry Condon is more likely to nab supporting honors for Banshees than either Gleeson or Keoghan, who will probably cancel each other out. In a different era, Judd Hirsch would win for sentimental reasons, but as memorable as his Fabelmans performance is, many believe the role is just too small for him to upset. And for my money, David Lynch was even better in the film, with even less screen time. Bryan Tyree Henry's surprise inclusion for Causeway will be looked at as reward enough. No one other than Quan has a shot.  

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

A two-horse race if there ever was one. We've gotten to the point where the backlash to the backlash regarding Andrea Riseborough's unusual campaign has actually improved her chances, but there's a big difference in getting the necessary number of votes to be nominated and having enough to actually win. My hunch is she'll fall short, despite giving a career best performance in To Leslie deserving of the attention it's gotten. That Ana de Armas defied the odds in getting nominated for her fearless Marilyn Monroe portrayal in the widely reviled Blonde speaks to her talent and the fact she'll probably be here again. It's not "category fraud" if you place yourself in a tougher race, which is what Michelle Williams did, possibly costing herself a supporting trophy. It's looking like we'll have to wait a little longer to see the five-time nominee referred to as an Academy Award winner, a designation she's deserved for a while now.  

Even while trading precursor wins with EEAAO's Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett was still thought to have this in the bag for her complex tour de force as icy classical conductor Lydia Tár. It's a career high performance made for Oscar, but Yeoh has suddenly surged and now the only question left is if voters think two-time winner Blanchett's been honored enough and are willing to overlook one of the more acclaimed acting turns of recent times by the industry's most respected actress. But it looks like that's exactly what could happen, as the Academy has a chance to anoint a long underappreciated talent in a movie most voters seem to really love. A Blanchett loss may not age that well, but then again, few could claim Yeoh isn't at the least the next strongest choice.   

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

It's really hard not to get flashbacks to 2014 Oscars when Michael Keaton's likely comeback win for Birdman was derailed by eventual victor Eddie Redmayne, who reaped the benefits of playing real life figure Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. It's almost become a long running joke how heavily the Academy favors biographical performances, with Rami Malek's take on Freddie Mercury being the most recent example. This could spell trouble for The Whale's Brendan Fraser considering Austin Butler not only physically transforms himself into the King of Rock and Roll, but actually does a lot of his own singing, a rarity in the musical biopic genre. And despite a recent SAG win and continued momentum, it's possible voters feel honoring one comeback is enough with Fraser's Encino Man co-star Ke Huy Quan. 

Working against Butler is that he'd be one of the youngest winners ever and Fraser's empathic performance as the lonely, morbidly obese Charlie is as undeniable as the actor's personal story. This is the tightest race, making the remaining contenders an afterthought. Farrell's heat is gone, Paul Mescal's turn and film feel too small for the win and Living's Bill Nighy might be the least visible nominee in years. As painful as it is to admit, the chances of them rewarding Fraser has dwindled slightly, making it entirely possible the Academy passes over my favorite male performance of 2022 to fall back on their old habits. Butler's great in a film seen and liked by far more, and has a Best Picture nomination, even if it's still difficult to envision him onstage knowing how the Oscars favor experience over youth. Still, The Whale's lack of prominence or broad support in other categories is a red flag. This is close enough to result in a historic tie, but no one's crazy enough to predict that.              

BEST DIRECTOR
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Todd Field (Tár)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

That fleeting period when this race seemed up in the air ended, since becoming an inevitability that the Daniels will bring it home. Is an upset possible? Sure, but this is one of the few categories you can comfortably check off without a second thought because it just makes sense. EEAAO is the movie voters like the most and a lot of that can be attributed their direction. Plus, they just won the DGA and have been front and center this whole time, likably promoting the film as if their lives depended on it.

The Daniels somehow losing would be a shock because there's just no reasonable alternative, save for maybe Spielberg, due to his legacy and the fact that The Fabelmans is his best in a long time. Five years ago he'd probably win, but the landscape has drastically changed and a bigger audience for it could have helped. If we're technically talking about the best directed effort then Todd Field triumphs, but it's hard to remember the last time the Academy rewarded that. It's a miracle Triangle of Sadness's Ruben Östlund got in and McDonagh has a better chance at Banshees love in the screenplay category. Mark another one down for EEAAO, as Picture and Director are shaping up to match again.        

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The year's sleeper, All Quite on the Western Front, has made up a lot of ground, but it winning would be an unprecedented upset at the level of Crash or Moonlight considering how it lacks both directing and editing nods. Avatar: The Way of Water is here because there are ten slots, it's just good enough and made a lot of money. Aside from a strong showing at the BAFTAs, Banshees has been losing steam over the past month, making a victory in any major race a real long shot. If vote tallies were ever revealed to the public, we'd probably all be surprised just how well Elvis did, but it's still all about Butler's performance. 

In another decade The Fabelmans wins Best Picture, as it's just the kind of traditionally well made, coming-of-age story that voters always drooled over. While that's not as true now, it's still one of Spielberg's weirder, more strangely compelling recent works and I'm glad we got it. Tár is brilliant, but a critic's film, too cold and complex for Academy tastes. Top Gun: Maverick is its polar exact opposite, a crowd thrilling spectacle done right that raked in tons of money for the industry, but even its biggest boosters admit it's a superb fast food meal you don't give a second thought to after the credits roll.

Triangle of Sadness would be this year's head-scratching inclusion if not for the presence of Women Talking, which takes a spot that could have belonged to Babylon, The Whale or any other number of films I loved this year that everyone else despised. With PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA guild wins, it's pretty much a cakewalk for EEAAO, which should successfully convert on a decent amount of its 11 nominations, driving the film's most vocal opponents up the wall. They'll be in for a long night.             

Babylon

Director: Damien Chazelle
Starring: Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Diego Calva, Jean Smart, Jovan Adepo, Li Jun Li, P.J. Byrne, Lukas Haas, Olivia Hamilton, Max Minghella, Rory Scovel, Katherine Waterston, Tobey Maguire, Flea, Jeff Garlin, Eric Roberts
Running Time: 189 min.
Rating: R

**The Following Review Contains Major Plot Spoilers For 'Babylon'**

★★★★ (out of ★★★★)

Say what you will about Damien Chazelle's hyper ambitious Hollywood epic Babylon, but it'll be remembered. A sprawling spectacle that takes huge, ambitious swings, it's the very definition of an experience, even if its mileage will vary for some. Speculation as to why a film from an Oscar-winning director about cinema's golden age didn't wrack up truckloads of awards and critical praise is immediately put to rest in the opening section. Amidst the debauchery, Chazelle makes it clear right away he's more interested in telling a darkly humorous, ironically tragic tale of excess and failure that's more The Day of The Locust than La La Land. And you just can't take your eyes off it, as its filled to the brim with uproarious scenes and characters. Sorting out how much of this is entirely fabricated, loosely based on real anecdotes or actual people probably requires a separate documentary. But that would spoil the fun of not knowing. 

Watching, it's easy to envision Paramount assuming Margot Robbie was their slam dunk for Best Actress, nailing a role that seemingly falls right into the Academy's wheelhouse. And even taking into account its disappointing box office, you can still see why they'd think that, and be shocked at the lack of a nomination. It's an exhilarating, tour de force performance that constantly hovers between disturbing victimization, brilliant physical comedy and insecure exhibitionism. It's no wonder everyone hates it, especially older viewers understandably intrigued at the prospect of Robbie playing a silent film star, though underestimating her willingness to go to ugly, uncomfortable places with the character few other actresses would willingly sign up for.

This also contains one of the more intriguing Brad Pitt turns, likely to draw comparisons to his aging stuntman Cliff Booth in Tarantino's Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. But while both were once famously successful performers now struggling to stay relevant in an industry done with them, the same could apply to everyone in this film, some more tragically than others. The story zigs and zags, tracking different characters and situations as it approaches the polarizing finale. Many have jumped to declare it "messy," but there's a through line that cleverly intersects, with Chazelle rarely losing sight of the destination. He knows what he's doing, with the three hours moving at a breakneck pace, with even its harshest critics forced to admit it's never dry or dull. Ripe for a major reassessment down the line, it'll be fun seeing how this ages while continuing to peel back its many layers.

It's 1926 Los Angeles when Manuel "Manny" Torres (Diego Calva) transports an elephant to a wild, drug and alcohol fueled party at the Kinoscope Studios mansion. While there, he meets brash and outgoing New Jersey native Nellie LaRoy (Robbie), who not only hopes to be discovered, but already considers herself a movie star in waiting. Joined at the party by the likes of matinee idol Jack Conrad (Pitt), lesbian cabaret singer Lady Fay Zhu (Li Jun Li) and African American jazz trumpeter Sidney Palmer (Jovan Adepo), Manny and Nellie bond over their shared desire to do "something bigger."

Manny and Nellie's big breaks come when Jack secures him work with Kinoscope while she lands a studio picture role, upstaging its aggravated lead. With Manny ascending the studio ladder and Nellie emerging as a world famous screen star, Hollywood undergoes a massive change when films transition from silent to talkies in the late '20's. And with it comes a seismic industry shift that ensures nothing in their lives will ever be the same again.

After a disgustingly hilarious start that previews of the insanity to come, we're introduced to three major characters a this party who are tracked for nearly the film's entire running length. The introductory sequence is a full-on feast for the senses, beautifully shot by cinematographer Linus Sandgren with a propulsive, catchy score from Justin Hurwitz that enhances the whole energy and vibe of the proceedings. As the camera sweeps through the mansion and following this explicit mayhem, the stage is set for all the insanity that follows. 

Structurally, the film could almost be viewed as a series of interconnected vignettes focusing on these events effecting various players. Among them are a dangerously chaotic Jack Conrad movie shoot that Manny saves and a delirious montage of Nellie's big screen debut for director Ruth Adler (Olivia Hamilton), who's shocked by the ingenue's seemingly effortless ability to cry on demand. Throughout, Nellie's established as suffering from an imposter syndrome, exacerbated by a traumatic family life defined by her mentally ill mother and sleazy, dim-witted business manager father played by Eric Roberts. Her attempted revenge on him results in one of the film's craziest scenes involving a snake challenge that goes spectacularly wrong.

Some handle the arrival of sound in motion pictures better than others, but that it's basically a death knell for them all speaks to humans' inability to change or evolve. Manny fares the best, but it comes at a steep price, by the end no longer resembling the wide-eyed errand boy who dreamed of making it big. What does set him apart is his willingness and skill to work within the boundaries of a new system that's already putting stars like Nellie and Jack out to pasture. 

As Manny, Diego Calva gives one of the best recent lead performances from an unknown on a project of this size and scope. Resembling a younger Javier Bardem, he conveys this nervous desperation and eagerness, and whether Manny's trying to work his way onto a movie set or pining after Nellie, Calva retains a certain likability as the character's Tinseltown career takes off.  And yet his fall is the most precipitous, having essentially erased his entire identity to ingratiate himself into this capitalistic Hollywood system. 

By the time Manny urges African American trumpeter Sidney to don blackface for lighting purposes,  even he can't believe what he's asking. Adepo's performance as Sidney meets the moment, steeped in humiliating contemplation that lasts what feels like an eternity before he acquiesces. After that, he's had enough. But so has Manny, even if he doesn't know it yet. Ironically, it's Nellie's recklessness that causes his undoing, exposing him to the seediest, most dangerous element of Hollywood's underbelly in gangster James McKay, creepily by played by Tobey Maguire in a brief, effective excursion into Lynchian territory.

Spiraling deep into drugs and gambling, Nellie's career flatlines as quickly as the silent pictures in which she starred, her voice likened to the squealing of a dying animal by studio executives. While real life parallels can be drawn from most of these fictional characters, her upbringing and reputation is an obvious nod to silent screen legend and anointed "It Girl," Clara Bow, but with Robbie fleshing her out as far more than just an homage.

We see how much of a struggle it is for Nellie to adapt in two of the film's funniest scenes, the first showcasing the difficulty of filming with sound, and another when she attends a high society party with Manny that ends in disaster for William Randolph Hearst (Pat Kipper) and Marion Davies (Chloe Fineman). Recalling the best moments and scenes, it's hardly a coincidence Robbie's at the center of all of them, her comic timing consistently wringing laughs from the most outrageous and tragic situations. 

In a film filled with characters denying their own mortality, Pitt's Jack best reflects the fickle nature of fame and success. Gossip columnist Elinor St. John (Jean Smart) gets that, holding court to deliver a brilliantly conceived speech about how everyone's irrelevance within this twisted ecosystem serves a higher purpose than themselves. It's sad but weirdly reassuring, the power of her painfully honest assessment resonating throughout the film's final minutes when we realize just how right she was. In light of his many divorces and hard drinking, Jack's a vain, but decent guy who's also unfailingly loyal. We see it with Manny, his troubled longtime manager George (Lukas Haas) and just about anyone else he comes into contact with. But he's also the biggest silent film star of this period, making him the one with the most to lose.

Jack doesn't poorly adjust so much as the change pushes up his expiration date, expediting an inevitable decline. And for someone who's having the time of his life, anonymity and failure are too much to bare. While it's odd to say any Pitt performance would go overlooked, this has, which may have to do with the usual eye-rolling that accompanies movie stars playing movie stars. Pitt's portrayal differs by how unflattering it is, with all his character's insecurities laid bare. In both epitomizing and sending up the public's perception of Pitt as an actor, it feels like a defining role, substantially deeper and more challenging than expected.

By incorporating some of the experiences of icons like Louis Armstrong and Anna May Wong to create Sidney and Fay, Chazelle expertly crafts a fictional story that's history adjacent. The actors take care of the rest, their characters initially hovering on the periphery before breaking through. Jovan Adepo and a seductively scene stealing Li Jun Li are consistently compelling, playing performers who know the necessity of striking while the iron's hot, despite never really getting proper respect due to their minority status. An eclectic parade of names including Olivia Wilde, Jeff Garlin, Flea, Max Minghella (as legendary producer Irving Thalberg), Samara Weaving, Spike Jonze, Patrick Fugit and Albert Hammond Jr. show up in smaller roles. Some play real figures, but all are seamlessly incorporated, disappearing behind Mary Zophres' unforgettable period costuming  

Chazelle's film commences with a euphoric, bittersweet payoff worthy of all that's preceded it. Returning years later to the town that crushed him, Manny's hopelessness is palpable as he sits in the cinema watching Singin' in the Rain, before things take a sudden turn. In a trippy, euphoric, montage through film history that visually invokes 2001: A Space Odyssey's closing stargate sequence, he's overwhelmed with emotion. Now grasping what Elinor St. John talked about and Jack and Nellie couldn't comprehend, he fully recognizes his role in helping to shape something far bigger than himself, or any of us. 

Much like all of it, the wild finale needs time and distance to process, as it leaps forward while triggering a strange nostalgia for people and events we saw only two hours earlier. Either way, it isn't hard to notice the irony of this film being chewed up and spit out in much the same way its characters are, seeking adoration from an industry always moving on, looking for the next big thing. For all the talk about Hollywood loving movies about itself, Babylon could be the rare exception, cutting too close to the bone, even for them.

The Whale

Director: Darren Aronofsky
Starring: Brendan Fraser, Sadie Sink, Hong Chau, Ty Simpkins, Samantha Morton, Sathya Sridharan
Running Time: 117 min.
Rating: R 

★★★★ (out of ★★★★)

Considering the story for Darren Aronofsky's The Whale originated on stage, it sure has a lot happening, to the point there's barely enough time to come up for air in amidst the unfolding tension. Yes, this adaptation of Samuel Hunter's 2012 play primarily takes place within the confines of a morbidly obese man's home, but this isn't "stagey" or "static," nor is it about ogling at his health rapidly deteriorating health.While the main character has become a sideshow spectacle to the few who encounter him, he knows it, having long ago began a gradual suicide that feels too late to turn back from. There's only one thing left to make right and he's determined to, because no matter what what anyone thinks of him now, it pales in comparison to how harshly he's judged himself. 

It's rare to watch a film you know has to run two hours, yet still fear the protagonist might die at any moment. And that it could happen doing everyday things, like getting up from the couch, going to the bathroom, eating a sandwich, picking something up off the floor, or even just sleeping. Of course, this could happen to anyone at anytime, but Aronofsky immerses us in the protagonist's elevated risk. We know he doesn't have a lot of time left, not only because we're told, but just by looking at him. You also can't help but wonder what outspoken opponents of Brendan Fraser's "fat suit" would consider a suitable alternative since you can't make him gain an unhealthy amount of weight or cast an over 600 pound actor. If they feel the film shouldn't be made then that's a shame since his performance goes far beyond makeup and prosthetics. This is the character's reality, with Fraser going to extraordinary but justifiable lengths to show us why. 

Charlie (Fraser) is a chronically overweight, reclusive English professor teaching online writing courses with his web cam shut off to hide his appearance. The only direct contact he has with the outside world is through his friend and visiting nurse Liz (Hong Chau), the pizza delivery driver who can't see him, and more recently, a New Life Church missionary named Thomas (Ty Simpkins). Despite Liz urging the uninsured, in debt Charlie to agree to go to the hospital for impending heart failure, he stays inside, instead making a last ditch effort to reconnect with his angry, estranged teenage daughter Ellie (Sadie Sink). Since abandoning her and his ex-wife Mary (Samantha Morton) eight years ago to run off with his now deceased former student and male lover, he's embarked on a downward spiral of binge eating. Pulling out all the stops to reconcile with an unreceptive Ellie could be his last chance at any kind of redemption, but he's quickly running out of time. 

It's startling how much goes on in this single claustrophobic location, with unbearable suspense coming from everyday situations that would seem mundane under normal circumstances. Still, this opens with what seems to be an unusual amount of visitors for Charlie, whose condition is worsening with each passing minute. Immobile, sweaty, suffering from astronomically high blood pressure and stuffing his face with any available junk food, caretaker Liz hasn't exactly given up, but realizes he's reached the end and works to make it as comfortable as possible. There for him in every way as he continuously apologizes, she knows there's nothing more that can be done. But there are a couple of surprises right away, especially for those misled by vague trailers and commercials implying that we'd just be watching someone eat themselves to death on their own sofa. And even if you acknowledge that's partially true, Aronofsky still manages to get a shocking amount of mileage out of it.

The first person who sees Charlie isn't Liz, but a complete stranger in Thomas, a Christian missionary distributing pamphlets who walks in on him in the throes of a somewhat embarrassing medical emergency. We soon sadly realize Charlie is well past the humiliation stage and this kid might be more traumatized than he is. Immediately distrusting of Thomas and thinking religion is the last thing her patient needs now, Liz's vitriol toward the visitor is more complex than it initially appears. So too are his motivations, which seem to extend far past converting Charlie or trying to have him saved. That he keeps returning to help is proof enough of that, even as Charlie's focus remains entirely on Ellie. It's her, his writing class, and an essay on Moby-Dick he's particularly obsessed with that keep him going, at least through this week.

Ellie couldn't possibly be any more hostile toward her dad and it's easy to grasp why given the circumstances, which Charlie takes full responsibility for. One of the most powerful moments comes when Ellie tells him that he finds him more disgusting on the inside than outside, which reflects an honesty he seems to appreciate. He's big on honesty, more than willing to be treated like garbage if it means Ellie can tell the truth and get everything out of her system, no matter how cruel. Charlie also realizes he deserves it and would gladly take a bullet if it meant making even a little headway in repairing their rift. 

While everything traces back to Charlie's betrayal, Ellie's mom isn't exactly blameless for what happens after, as we start to realize the biggest mistake both made was getting married to begin with. That a full portrait is painted of this fractured family without the benefit of flashbacks is a credit to the depth of Hunter's script, which is agonizingly and uncomfortably brought to life by Fraser and the supporting cast.   

Charlie's physical state instantly establishes him as the most sympathetic character, but it's Fraser who makes this individual likeable despite his serious flaws. The shame and regret just pours out of him, as if he woke up that morning, looked in the mirror and suddenly saw someone no longer recognizable at all, but not only because of the weight. His partner died, his daughter hates him and now this. And from what we know about Fraser's extended acting absence, you'd figure the actor had a lot to draw from that may not have existed had he continued along the movie star course he was on fifteen to twenty years ago. Even at his peak, few would have guessed he had something like this in him, as he shines a light on the character's almost improbable, unshakeable optimism in the face of inevitable tragedy. 

As his nurse and confidant, Hong Chau's Liz administers what first seems like "tough love," until her personal connection to Charlie reveals itself. As dark as the material is, the levity and humor springing from their interactions suggest a shorthand rooted in deeper friendship. And those only familiar with Sadie Sink as the resilient Max on Stranger Things will likely be blown away by how well she epitomizes pure teen rage as Ellie, whose own mom even thinks she's evil. 

Having to remain completely detestable throughout, Sink sprinkles a sliver of doubt that Ellie's capable of letting him back in, if only maybe a little. Charlie isn't wrong that she at least cares enough to drop by, even if it's to emotionally bludgeon and bully him, which he takes. And much like Thomas, she just can't bring herself to actually leave. Played by Simpkins, the young missionary might be the most frustratingly complicated character, and after spending most of the film trying to read him, once he's revealed in full, it strangely makes complete sense, while deflating us just the same. 

Charlie's life threatening condition is a psychological one, buried under a crippling food dependency that just as easily could have revolved around drugs, alcohol or even gambling. To say the film targets the overweight ignores how others can feel equally isolated due to any number of reasons or traumatic events. And like many of them, he's already given up, turning his attention to salvaging the only relationship that still matters. While The Whale frequently shows humanity at its worst, with awful people treating each other terribly, its main character refuses to buy that narrative. You can call it misguided or naive, but his belief that everyone still wants to do good might be all he has left.