2024 Oscar Predictions

Most years, Academy voters can either be relied on to spread the wealth among a variety of different films in many categories or put their energy behind one title that runs the table, sweeping nearly everything. Think Ben-Hur, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Whether Oppenheimer joins that exclusive club remains to be seen, but it's sure shaping up that way, as it lays claim to a whopping thirteen nominations. 

Converting even half of those nods into wins would still make Sunday's 96th Oscars telecast a fairly predictable one, leaving little room for the surprises we hope for. Or if you're a more casual follower, plummeting ratings indicate you may not be watching anyway. But despite constant rumblings the ceremony could follow the SAG Awards to a streamer, it'll be staying on ABC for now with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting at a mercifully earlier start time.

In an effort to attract more eyeballs, Barbie will be all over the screen for promotional purposes, at least if commercials and ads are any indication. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie's snubs notwithstanding, eight noms is still an impressive haul that can be credited to what they brought to material no one thought could work. Voters will ensure it picks up something, but the night really revolves around Oppenheimer's foreseeable wins and how the show's producers can overcome any potential monotony accompanying that. On paper, Best Actor and Actress appear the least locked, but even the tightness of those races has widened in recent weeks, which could be good news for fans finalizing their picks. My predictions are below, along with an in depth analysis of the major categories.           

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

BEST SOUND
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo & Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk and Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Arthur Max & Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony (Jon Baptiste & Dan Wilson)
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie (Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
"The Fire Inside Me," Flamin' Hot (Diane Warren)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby & Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou & Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier & Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts & Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi & Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams & Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco & Neil Corbould)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

This is a somewhat challenging race to predict since it's one the few Oppenheimer might not win. Already poised to take home at least a few technical awards, Poor Things is riding high right now, making it easy to imagine voters rewarding Tony McNamara for working wonders with Alasdair Gray's 1992 novel. In an open field like this, The Zone of Interest can't be discounted, either for its subject matter or how Jonathan Glazer handled a tricky adaptation. 

Three-time screenplay nominee Gerwig (along with co-writer Noah Baumbach) being recognized after all isn't outside the realm of possibility since this seems like an ideal place to honor Barbie. But confusion over its category placement landed it in a far more competitive race that's likely to be won by Cord Jefferson. His timely, of the moment take on Percival Everett's 2001 novel culturally resonates in a way its closest competitors don't. It also holds a BAFTA win over Oppenheimer, which isn't nothing.      

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Celine Song)

Barbie's exclusion opened this race up a little more while May December makes its only Oscar appearance alongside Cooper's more Academy-friendly Maestro. But in the case of both, writing wouldn't be singled out as their key strength, or at least enough of one to pull off a win. Past Lives risks getting lost in the shuffle while David Hemingson's classically constructed screenplay for The Holdovers was a sure bet until Anatomy of a Fall won this award at BAFTA and the Globes, emerging as the new favorite. 

Fall's other nominations also indicate broader support, with Triet and Harari's script appealing to voters' sense of storytelling efficiency. The Holdovers can still pull this off, but it may have stood a slightly better chance if director Alexander Payne was credited as a co-writer alongside Hemingson since everything's a popularity contest. And that it feels like a literary adaptation could work for or against its chances of voters recognizing its originality.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrara (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Blunt's first ever nod for Oppenheimer seems perplexing until you realize overall appreciation for the film carried her through. Danielle Brooks and Jodie Foster are in better positions, even as their respective films were overlooked in enough key categories that they've sort of become afterthoughts. 

While America Ferrera's reward will have to be impressively making the cut for Barbie, Da'Vine Randolph is the lockiest of locks for her performance as grieving Barton Academy cafeteria manager Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. It's hard to think of a more universally praised turn from anyone all year. In a category known for surprises, we won't be getting any here.           

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Voters liked Barbie's Gosling more than enough to find a spot for him but it's unlikely he has enough support to go further for his wildly subversive and entertaining take on Ken. It was always a coin flip between Poor Things co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, but it's Stone's movie, leaving the chosen Ruffalo as the odd man out in a crowded category. 

With KOTFM having lost momentum, the likelihood of De Niro upsetting for his turn as villainous politico William "King" Hale follows suit. Most agree it's great to see him in a role like this again, while also acknowledging there isn't anything particularly special about the performance. 

There's been nothing but unanimous praise for Sterling K. Brown's work in American Fiction but he's unfortunately pitted against an unstoppable Robert Downey Jr. who's been collecting trophies all season as two-faced Oppenheimer nemesis Lewis Strauss. Besides him greatly contributing the year's most honored film, it's being viewed as a post-Marvel reminder of what he's always done best. One of the biggest locks of the night.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Acting legend Annette Bening has never won an Oscar, but as beloved as the five-time nominee is by voters, it won't be happening this year for her physically taxing performance as a 60-year-old distance swimmer in Nyad. And it's a shame Netflix didn't push harder since it's exactly the kind of part that could have done it for her. Mulligan (who should have won for 2020's Promising Young Woman) is sensational in Maestro, but with many still feeling it's Cooper's film, this is an uphill battle. She'll be back. 

If there's a spoiler, it'll be Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall given the Academy's large European contingent and overall respect shown to that film with its other nods. If the top two split votes, she's still a long shot, but no more of an impossibility than Olivia Colman was in 2018 when she upset Glenn Close.

With Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, Stone's still sitting pretty right now, but Gladstone's arguably better situated, having also locked up a Golden Globe in addition to her PGA and SAG victories. But Stone already having Supporting Oscar shouldn't really harm her chances and the fact she's playing a resurrected nymphomaniac isn't viewed as much of an obstacle either, with most  focused on how brilliantly she did it. 

Despite divisive reactions to KOTFM, voters won't be able to resist the temptation of crowning Gladstone the first Native American Best Actress winner and hearing what's sure to be a moving acceptance speech. Even if we focus entirely on the performances and say those things shouldn't matter, they do. On top of this, the work itself is deserving. Even Stone's probably pulling for her at this point, knowing the backlash she'd inevitably get for winning. The Best Actor race may be close, but this is tighter, with Gladstone poised to make history. And we all know how much the Academy loves that.                

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Many may have loved the performance, but Colman Domingo is the outlier here with the smallest chance in this field of five. Cooper's been unfairly mocked for silly reasons, but in another year the multi-time nominee would have finally sealed the deal with his memorable portrayal of late composer Leonard Bernstein. Wright's gained a lot of steam for American Fiction, but he peaked a little late, making it hard to picture him pulling this off.

If we're keeping track, Murphy won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and most recently the SAG. Giamatti holds PGA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe victories heading into the show. On paper, the edge is Murphy's since it's highly uncommon to win the SAG and not walk away with Oscar gold. Plus, a tidal wave of Oppenheimer support can only help bolster the chances for the type of biographical performance voters usually embrace. 

In his favor, Giamatti's career high work as a curmudgeonly educator in The Holdovers is probably more accessible than Murphy's icier turn and some may feel he's owed a trophy for the Sideways travesty. But that was decades ago so it'll probably come down to the movies, one of which its studio hung out to dry and is viewed as being more "lightweight" than the juggernaut that is Oppenheimer. Murphy takes it in one of the night's closer races.           

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Even if voters weren't exactly feeling adventurous when narrowing this down, but it's hard to argue against the inclusion of any of these filmmakers on merit. Perhaps more noticeable is who they displaced, as many still wish either Gerwig, Payne, Song or Jefferson could have snuck in. To that end, Glazer and Triet's nominations will be seen as reward enough given who they nudged out to claim their spots. 

There's a lot of respect for what Lanthimos did with Poor Things, but not necessarily enough from the older skewing director's branch to take him over the finish line. Once an early favorite, Scorsese's chances basically evaporated when KOTFM didn't get the rapturous reception most expected. Even those lukewarm on Oppenheimer can't deny Nolan's directorial achievement, or the fact he's probably overdue. This is his to lose, but he won't. 

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

In a year with this obvious a frontrunner the futility of having ten nominees really stands out. Poor Things and American Fiction have done respectably while KOTFM's recent decline is steep enough to actually affect Gladstone's chances. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest each have their fans, but only Fall seems noteworthy for having that Triet nomination. Barbie's snubs in other categories damaged its viability in the big races, the underrated Maestro got a bad rap all season, and The Holdovers' best shot at gold remains with Randolph and possibly Giamatti.  

Every nominee has either lost momentum or held steady, with one notable exception. Oppenheimer has been running through the competition with shows no signs of slowing down, picking up every precursor while still being discussed and analyzed as if it came out yesterday. Audiences and critics love it and as a historical biography with timely resonance, its win is a foregone conclusion, giving Nolan matching Best Picture and Director statues.