Burning Questions From The 2025 Oscars

  

Didn't it feel good seeing this start at a reasonable time?

 

Did you expect that optimism would fade later on?

 

Wasn't that L.A. tribute montage incredibly short given the circumstances? 

 

Can you believe they were seriously considering not have any musical performances on the show at all?

 

Was that a rhetorical question?

 

Were you expecting Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande to perform in character?

 

Was that maybe asking a little too much?

 

Okay then, how about Chalamet?

 

Out of all the nominees Conan could insert himself into, wasn't 'The Substance' the best choice?

 

Wasn't his joke about Netflix's constant price hikes the cold, hard truth?

 

Just like the one about Karla Sofía Gascón's publicist?

 

Didn't you know he'd immediately go there with the Gascón jabs?

 

And why shouldn't he?

 

Can you believe she actually attended? 

 

A sand worm playing the piano?

 

While the musical number was funny, did you think "I Won't Waste Time" was a promise Conan wouldn't be able to keep?

 

And wasn't that kind of the song's point?

 

With the exception of Chalamet's ultrasound, didn't those celebrity headshots resemble not so embarrassing high school yearbook photos?

 

How about that Adam Sandler bit? 

 

Did Robert Downey Jr. ramble or what? 

 

Are they really not showing any film clips of the nominees...again? 

 

Were you worried they'd present every category like that?

 

With the Culkin win, was everyone officially guaranteed one right on their ballots?

 

Sort of like he and his wife are officially guaranteed two more kids?

 

So, they're showing clips after all?

 

Did anyone correctly predict Animated Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever? 

 

Didn't the costume nominees presentation take up a lot of time?

 

What would Conan say about that?

 

Wasn't Nick Offerman the ideal choice for announcer?  

 

Were you thinking that Original Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Anora?'    

 

Or were you thinking that Adapted Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Conclave?'

 

Weren't June Squibb and Scarlett Johansson an inspired pairing? 

 

Did Squibb display the best comedic timing of any presenter?

 

In the event of an Adrien Brody win, wouldn't it be better to have Halle Berry announce Best Actor?

 

Is isn't absurd how Margaret Qualley had to be a part of the James Bond tribute to get onto the Oscars?

 

So, they decided to go all in on the musical performances anyway?

'Cinemastreams?'

 

Was that the first time we've seen Darryl Hannah in over a decade?

 

Did that editing loss seal 'Conclave's' fate? 

 

Why were they not showing clips for the Supporting Actor and Actress nominees?

 

When Zoe won were you wondering if she'd mention Karla Sofía Gascón? 

 

If you still wanted a career after this, would you?

 

Was that Rolex commercial better than just about any Oscar montage?

 

Mick Jagger?!

 

Isn't he unsurprisingly great at this whole presenting thing?

 

Did you think the 16th time would be the charm for Diane Warren? 

 

Did anyone correctly predict Documentary Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever?

 

Am I in shock that I actually did?

 

Would "guessed" be a more accurate word than "predicted" in this instance?

 

Miles Teller and Miley Cyrus?

 

Are they Conan's version of Letterman's Oprah and Uma?

 

Was Conan's 'Anora' joke about "standing up to a powerful Russian" the line of the night?  

 

Am I the only one perplexed at the level of online hate directed toward Rachel Zegler?

 

Doesn't that 'Better Man' movie look ridiculous? 

 

Did my luck run out with Live-Action Short?

 

Didn't everyone's?

 

Wasn't that a classy tribute to Gene Hackman from Morgan Freeman? 

 

Wasn't it jarring to see how many big names we lost over the past year?

 

And surreal seeing Shelley Duvall, David Lynch, James Earl Jones and Gene Hackman listed consecutively at the end of the montage?

 

Did you yell "Oh no, not again!" when you realized they excluded Michelle Trachtenberg?

 

How can they so royally screw this up every year?

 

Are they trying to upset viewers?

 

Was 'I'm Still Here' winning Best International Feature the ultimate slap in the face to 'Emilia Pérez?'

 

Wasn't that sort of expected? 

 

Does it get any better than Mark Hamill coming out to John Williams?

 

Was Best Actor the most suspenseful award of the night? 

 

Did you breathe a sigh of relief or disappointment when Adrien Brody won? 

 

Was Cillian Murphy worried Brody would try to kiss him?

 

Did Brody's gum tossing top his infamous Halle Berry moment? 

 

Was his speech longer than 'The Brutalist?'

 

Did you notice Tarantino nodding and clapping with approval when Sean Baker talked about the importance of preserving the theatrical experience?

 

Was he preaching to the choir with that one? 

 

After seeing the poorly chosen Demi Moore clip, were you worried she may not have this in the bag after all? 

 

Did 'Anora''s screenplay, editing and directing wins forecast Mikey taking this? 

 

Didn't she give a really nice speech?

 

Though she hid it well, how disappointed must Demi be right now? 

 

Once Best Picture rolled around, wasn't 'Anora' winning inevitable?

 

But did you really expect it to clean up like it did?

 

Can Conan O' Brien do this again?

 

At this point, should any host just chalk it up as a victory they made it through the show without getting slapped? 

2025 Oscar Predictions

Lately, there's been this split inside the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, as the old guard continues to clash with an influx of newer members who changed the game when preferential balloting went into effect in 2009. While the former still cling to traditionalist views of what an Oscar winner should look and feel like, a younger, more diverse voting body has risen up, with some surprising results. 

Rarely has the playing field seemed as fractured as this year, as competing definitions of what a Best Picture is comes to a head an hour earlier Sunday when Conan O'Brien hosts the show. And as recent victors like Parasite, Nomadland, Coda and Everything Everywhere All At Once have proven, bigger doesn't always equal better for voters, with gigantic, high grossing theatrical epics becoming extinct in the streaming era. In retrospect, last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon was an anomaly, not just in terms of critical and commercial success, but in generating the kind of water cooler buzz that leads to renewed Oscar interest. 

Wicked appeared to be taking that route until abruptly fading from the conversation despite its 10 nomination haul. Instead, the headline surrounding this 87th Academy Awards is scandal, with former frontrunner Emilia Pérez's chances going up in smoke after a flurry of offensive tweets resurfaced from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón. Now, it faces the very real possibility of being shut out of all 13 categories for which its nominated. 

Suddenly, we're left with a potential Conclave vs. Anora showdown when the dramatic papal thriller faces off against a more zeitgeisty vision that could better represent where modern filmmaking's headed. Whether it gets the general public to care about the show is almost beside the point since this almost century old institution isn't going anywhere, regardless of what wins or how much doomsayers complain. But we are set for a really tight one on Sunday. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the major categories.                

 

*Predicted Winners 

ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death By Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Perez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

LIVE ACTION SHORT 
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 

FILM EDITING
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

SOUND
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey & David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett & Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz & Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson & John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo & Leff Lefferts)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

ORIGINAL SONG
"El Mal," Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
"The Journey," The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren)
"Like a Bird," Sing Sing (Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada)
"Mi Camino," Emilia Pérez (Camille & Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late (Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt & Bernie Taupin)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto & Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier & Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin & Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft & Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe & Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story & Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius & Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)

A month or two ago, Audiard's script for Emilia Pérez would have been a serious threat in this category, or at least leading Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Now it's in dead last, with all the controversy shining an even bigger spotlight on what dissenters already thought was the film's weakest aspect. Now, A Complete Unknown has made up about as much ground as Pérez lost, but most are more enamored with Chalamet's take on Dylan than Mangold and Cocks' script. That leaves the still very well regarded Conclave, which almost has to win this with Edward Burger's direction going unnominated and the Actor and Picture outcomes still in doubt. Its recent SAG and BAFTA trophies only help.       

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

It's a surprise enough voters even knew about September 5 so its inclusion here is probably reward enough. A Real Pain has a great chance, but with only one other nod to its name, it may not be significant enough to topple three strong Best Picture contenders. If it's between Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance, this outcome largely depends on what happens in the bigger, more consequential races. Given the roll Anora's on and that the latter two will likely be recognized elsewhere, you have to figure this goes to WGA winner Sean Baker, who's the only nominee equally respected as both a writer and director. Whether or not Anora takes home the big one, voters will want to reward him here.        

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

With a frontrunner who's been forced to distance herself from the very film she's nominated for, the discussion revolves around how much damage has been done to Zoe Saldaña. But there's good news. While not quite the lock she was a month ago, even Pérez's most vehement haters would admit her performance is far and away the best thing in it. So what it really comes down to is whether anyone can beat her. 

Rossellini has two minutes of screen time in Conclave, most need to be reminded The Brutalist's Jones was nominated, and as much love as A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro has gotten, a win her first time out is a stretch. That leaves us with Ariana Grande, who's deserving, but Wicked's stalled campaign makes it hard to imagine voters favoring her, even under these circumstances. If anything, the Academy will be more inclined to reward Saldaña for graciously holding it together throughout the entire P.R. disaster. With Globe, BAFTA and SAG wins under her belt, she's got this.               

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Anora's Yura Borisov earned a surprise, but well deserved nod that's hopefully just the start for him. Norton represents yet another endorsement for A Complete Unknown, but he's a real longshot. Though many think Guy Pearce should be getting even more attention for his role as industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren in The Brutalist, he's a lot less likely than Adrien Brody to be the acting win that polarizing film picks up. 

So good as young Trump's slimy mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong taking this feels completely justified, if not for the fact his Succession costar Culkin already has it locked up for his manic portrayal of rambunctious, grief ridden cousin Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain. While the Supporting Actress race is known for its upsets, this category isn't, and should be the only foregone conclusion of the night. Put your money on Culkin, who won every precursor in sight and seems poised to deliver another wildly entertaining acceptance speech.   

ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Gascón never had much of a chance at pulling this off anyway given how her lead category placement was called into question from the get-go, with many still believing she and Saldaña should have swapped places. But none of that matters now, as her shot at becoming the first openly trans actress to win an Academy Award has evaporated. But what it does is create an opening for beloved underdog Fernanda Torres to capture some of those international votes for her Golden Globe winning performance in I'm Still Here, which no one dislikes.

Erivo seemed much stronger before Wicked fizzled, erasing her from contention and leaving Mikey Madison and Demi Moore to battle it out in a race that's narrowed considerably in recent weeks as Anora's gained momentum. Madison's surprise BAFTA win definitely helped and a potential Best Picture victory could seal this since her performance and the film are nearly inseparable. But SAG and Globe losses to Moore, combined with her lower visibility, could hurt. Voters have also have a history of passing over young ingenues by rationalizing how much "time" they still have to win Oscars.

It's less what Madison lacks than everything Moore brings, which is immense popularity and a narrative that overcomes any ambivalence toward endorsing a graphic body horror film. And who among the Academy won't want to hear another inspiring acceptance speech about the double standards facing  women in Hollywood? Or reward an actress who thought she was finished, only to pour all those fears and insecurities into the defining role of her forty year career? Comeback stories don't get much bigger than this.                     

ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

In a sparser than usual field, I'd jump out of my seat if Sebastian Stan won for The Apprentice, but it's just not in the cards. And neither is a victory for Sing Sing's Colman Domingo or Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, who's slipped despite Conclave recently regaining ground. Besides giving the category's most popular performance, Chalamet managed to win over many doubters who assumed he couldn't play a believable Bob Dylan and does his own singing (something previous winners like Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody can't claim). The surprise SAG victory indicates passionate support, even if it came after Oscar voting already ended. 

Whether or not playing a real life figure still carries the same currency it once did, Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever at 29, breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody over twenty years earlier in The Pianist. And we'll see if voters can justify holding off on crowning Chalamet, who many believe will be back here again soon. But whatever hesitation there is in recognizing Mikey Madison for that reason, just double it and ask Elvis' Austin Butler how things went for him against Brendan Fraser. As divisive as it is, The Brutalist can't go home empty handed and Brody's suffering performance as Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor László Tóth could be how voters honor it, making him a two-time Oscar winner. Still, this race is a coin flip.                

DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Voters might be feeling a twinge of remorse that they can't substitute Conclave's Edward Burger, Nickel Boys' RaMell Ross, or Dune: Part Two's Denis Villeneuve in for Audiard, but the ship already sailed. A Complete Unknown will be remembered and celebrated for a while to come, but most agree it won't necessarily be for Mangold's direction. The Substance making it this far is a real credit to the talents of writer/director Fargeat, but a Best Actress and Makeup win is probably its ceiling. 

A possible Picture/Director split is always on everyone's minds when this year's no exception. Almost equally strong cases can be made for Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, but Baker has the slight edge having picked up that coveted DGA, an almost foolproof indicator that the Oscar's his. And if The Brutalist is a rough sit for voters, the more warmly embraced Anora has been held up as the ultimate signifier of Baker's skills. And him somehow feeling overdue with barely ten films behind him has to be seen as a very positive sign.         

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Emilia Pérez is finished, and while it's still leagues better than the atrocity that's been described, the film's excessive nomination tally and unfortunate scandal put a target on its back. Wicked peaked months ago and will occupy a proverbial blockbuster slot alongside Dune: Part Two, with voters awaiting their final installments before awarding either.

The competition is too stiff for I'm Still Here and Nickel Boys, neither of which have a director nod or equally meaningful notice that indicates a break through. The Substance's genre starts factoring in here since there's very little chance the Academy would crown a horror film with its top prize. A Complete Unknown's late surge is impressive, but more likely to result in a win for Chalamet than the movie as a whole. 

The Brutalist was looking much better a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to imagine a cerebral critics pick running away with this, especially considering how a similarly themed and executed masterpiece like There Will Be Blood couldn't even manage to pull it off. Conclave has a BAFTA and just recently got the SAG boost, but Berger's lack of a directing nod is worrisome.

While there's some precedent for overcoming the director hurdle (ask Ben Affleck), what can't be overcome is Anora winning both the PGA and DGA, making its path to gold a whole lot easier. Of those that have, only Brokeback Mountain, La La Land and 1917 failed to win Best Picture, with their losses documented as the most shocking in Oscar history. This doesn't feel like one of those races. Anora checks all the important boxes, solidifying it as the safer bet.                

2025 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

After an understandable delay and a couple of reschedulings, the 97th annual Academy Award nominations were announced live this morning by actors Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. The results largely lined up with what was anticipated, save for a few surprises and one huge shock. What's most predictable about these is how the wealth is always spread among two or three films, leaving the rest to fight for scraps, despite everything usually hovering around the same level of quality. And without a big frontrunner like Oppenheimer, that was only magnified this year. 

Of course, there are always complaints about how certain fan favorites were overlooked, leaving us to determine what exactly constitutes a "snub." While those definitions will vary based on who you ask, there were still some noteworthy developments as we approach the Academy's first live steaming telecast on March 2 hosted by Conan O' Brien. Now with a little over a month left to go, we at least know a little more about where voters' heads are at, as scary as that prospect seems. Below are all the important talking points. Click here for the complete list of nominees.

-13 nominations for Emilia Pérez is a bit much, and if that's coming from someone who really liked the film, you can just imagine other reactions to Jacques Audiard's crime musical tying Oppenheimer's nomination haul. While it probably won't come anywhere close to that win total, it could be the rare case where a movie's increased profile is a detriment, causing detractors to dig their heels in even more.  

-Wicked and The Brutalist followed with 10 nods a piece, shattering whatever expectations that the latter would be too tough or cerebral a sit for voters. Of course we're assuming they actually watched it. To no one's surprise, Wicked cleaned up in all the technical categories such as costume, visual effects, production design, sound, editing and makeup. 

-The glaring omission of Conclave's Edward Berger in the director category all but confirms suspicions it's not going the distance, especially with Pérez's Audiard and The Brutalist's Brady Corbet in the mix. It's also reasonable to speculate James Mangold took Berger's spot, further solidifying voters' love for A Complete Unknown, which overperformed across the board. Any lingering worries about genre bias toward The Substance was just squashed with Coralie Fargeat's inclusion here and in Best Original Screenplay and Picture.

-The Substance's, Demi Moore is sitting in a really favorable position with a strong narrative to win, even as Mickey Madison still remains a possible victor for her work in Sean Baker's Anora. Despite lead/supporting category confusion, Pérez's Karla Sofia Gascón becomes Oscars' first openly trans Best Actress nominee while the field is rounded out with Wicked's Cynthia Erivo and I'm Still Here's Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres, who's inclusion came at the expense of Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Zendaya was always a longshot for Challengers, and though it would have be downright surreal to utter the words "Oscar nominee Pamela Anderson" for The Last Showgirl, a bigger surprise comes in another category.

-Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice! Oddsmakers gave him a much better chance at getting in for his other Globe-nominated performance in A Different Man, but the audible gasp in the room when his name was announced for that film said it all. Easily the nomination of the morning, and one of the most deserved, with the Academy proving they can get it right. Adrien Brody has a good chance at becoming a two-time Oscar winner for The Brutalist, as he competes with Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, Timothée Chalamet's take on Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing's Colman Domingo. Queer's Daniel Craig is left out.

-A groundswell of support for the film helps lift A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro to a Supporting Actress nomination for her performance as Joan Baez in one of the mornings more surprising inclusions. Selena Gomez's absence wasn't entirely unpredictable, with many voters likely thinking her Pérez co-star Zoe Saldaña has this in the bag anyway. Wicked's Ariana Grande will be her closest competition while Conclave's Isabella Rossellini nabs the last spot with the smallest role here. The obvious exclsuion is Margaret Qualley for The Substance, and while we suspected this could happen, it's still somewhat surprising after seeing how well the film fared overall. 

-Denzel (Gladiator II) and Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) are the only perceived oversights in a Supporting Actor category that sees Jeremy Strong justifiably getting his due for his complex turn as Donald Trump's despicable mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. Joining him is Anora breakout Yura Borisov, A Complete Unknown's Ed Norton and The Brutalist's Guy Pearce, who serves as the latest indicator this divisive film is gaining traction. As basically the surest lock in any race right now, it's Kieran Culkin's to lose for A Real Pain.    

-With Best Picture shaping up to be a two movie battle between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, it seemed as if decided Dune: Part Two had a guaranteed spot months ago, if only out of pure obligation. Wicked, Conclave and Anora were all no brainers while the Nickel Boys and Brazil's adored International submission, I'm Still Here occupy underdog slots that many thought would go to A Real Pain and Sing Sing. Beating the odds, The Substance becomes one of the very few sci-fi/horror films to get nominated for the big prize. And riding its sudden wave of momentum, A Complete Unknown can now lay claim to matching Director and Picture nominations.

Other Random Observations:

-Nosferatu did surprisingly well, picking up nods for costume, makeup, production design and cinematography. More than most expected.

-Composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are overlooked for their pulsating Challengers score, which many thought was the movie's best chance at a nomination.

-Despite its Original Screenplay nod and inevitable Kieran Culkin win, A Real Pain may go down as one of those critics' picks that just couldn't gain a foothold with voters in major categories, which might actually be a compliment.

-The Best Original Song category has failed to drum up interest in recent years and the decision not to have nominated songs performed on the show only reinforces that. And considering one of the two from Emilia Pérez is sung by a major recording artist co-starring in the film, this feels like even more of a missed opportunity than usual.

-Documentaries haven't fared much better, as a category that once generated a decent amount of excitement with eclectic selections is now almost entirely comprised of films examining social issues and nothing else. There's no question those should be there, but remember Searching For Sugar Man? It probably wouldn't make the cut now, though they did find room this year for Elton John's Never Too Late. If 2023's snub of Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie didn't reveal voters' aversion to entertainment biographies, their latest exclusion of Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story may have confirmed it. 

Conclave

Director: Edward Berger
Starring: Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, Sergio Castellitto, Isabella Rossellini, Lucian Msamati, Carlos Diehz, Brían F. O'Byrne, Merab Ninidze, Balkissa Maiga
Running Time: 120 min.
Rating: PG

★★★ ½ (out of ★★★★)     

Adapted from Robert Harris' 2016 novel, Conclave centers around an election that somehow feels both very real and fictitious all at once. When a pope passes away an organized conclave of Cardinals do convene to vote on a successor, but director Edward Berger's heightened interpretation of events benefits from the process having never really been examined or dramatized on film before. That results in an eye opening watch for anyone curious about what such an event could entail, even under these craziest of circumstances.

The cerebral thriller is as much a reflection of the current political climate as the inner workings of the Roman Catholic Church, with Berger's methodical setup giving way to an intelligently made adult drama that gathers momentum with each plot turn. The results are gripping, as an uncomplicated endeavor gets muddled by lies and corruption, threatening to further tarnish the institution's already shaky reputation.

When Pope Gregory XVII dies of a heart attack, Cardinal-Dean Thomas Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) gathers his colleagues in seclusion for a papal conclave to elect the new pontiff. Candidates include the very liberal Aldo Bellini (Stanley Tucci) from the United States, Nigeria's Joshua Adeyemi (Lucian Msamati), conservative Canadian Joseph Tremblay (John Lithgow), and far right leaning Italian traditionalist Goffredo Tedesco (Sergio Castellitto). But when Lawrence is informed of an incriminating meeting that took place between Tremblay and the late pope directly before his death, the election is thrown into disarray.

As ballots are counted, more revelations surface, including a tryst from Adeyemi's past that rattles a concerned Sister Agnes (Isabella Rossellini) and the last-minute arrival of  secretly appointed Archbishop of Kabul, Vincent Benitez (Carlos Diehz). Presiding over numerous rounds of voting but expressing little interest in holding the position himself, Lawrence doubts the other candidates can capably fill it, knowing only that someone will have to.

With all the power and responsibility being pope brings, it only makes sense certain nominees wouldn't want it, lie about not wanting it, or stop at nothing to ensure they're elected. If not for the fact he's a good man, our protagonist would probably rather cover his ears, shielding himself and others from all these alleged misdeeds. Instead, he investigates each allegation as if the Church's future depended on it. And that's largely because it does. 

To say Lawrence suffers a crisis of faith isn't accurate since he hasn't lost belief in the Church so much as a process itself that constantly forces him to choose between the lesser of multiple evils. Then again, he also realizes his colleagues are human, prone to the same errors in moral judgment as anyone. This only makes coming to a just, favorable outcome that much harder, especially considering the number of skeletons top candidates are hiding in their closets.

Set to resign only hours earlier, it's clear why the deceased pope needed Lawrence to stay on, recognizing in him the qualities necessary to lead this College of Cardinals through difficult stretches like this. But it's also easy to see how Lawrence has no interest in an admittedly thankless position he feels unsuited for. Ironically, that stance only solidifies his worthiness, doing what few can by putting the Church's needs ahead of personal ambition. 

Waging war with his own conscience as a string of damaging details emerge, Fiennes transfixes as Lawrence, internalizing the stress and anguish as this election drags on. But he doesn't waiver, thoroughly deliberating each move with the knowledge there's only one chance to get it right. As the Cardinals split into opposing voting blocks, Bellini becomes Lawrence's trusted sounding board, with Tucci incredibly effective as a confidante who won't hold back, helping Lawrence wade through the deception. 

The other Cardinals sneakily whisper and conspire, while Lithgow steals scenes as the stubbornly ambitious Tremblay, who may or may not be pulling strings to ensure himself victory. Rossellini's role is small, but impactful, letting Sister Agnes' views be known with looks of disapproval and disdain before speaking out, whether the men want to hear it or not. It's to Lawrence's credit that he doesn't necessarily want input from everyone, yet remains open minded enough to listen just the same.

In the third act, another sane, rational voice speaks up at just the right moment, cutting through conflicting ideologies to remind these Cardinals of the bigger problems raging just outside their walls. It's only when we think it's all finally figured out that the big twist arrives, coming out of left field, but tying into the film's central thematic conflict between tradition and progress. The perfect candidate never existed and won't, so it's almost fitting that amidst all the dissension an enormous detail would slip under the radar, causing Lawrence to stumble headfirst into a change no one imagined.

The question of whether it's acceptable to elect the least compromised among an assembly line of flawed, dishonest candidates becomes the foundation on which the story's built. Bringing a refined precision to the proceedings, Berger and screenwriter Peter Straughan craft the rare prestige film that could play in any era, but still seems specifically suited to now. Carefully constructed and featuring powerful performances from a formidable cast, it squeezes a surprising amount of suspense from a scenario few expected to induce such excitement.