2021 Oscar Predictions

Yes, this year's Oscar race was understandably kind of a disaster. But here we are, and while the annual chorus of industry dissenters and diehard cinephiles will cry that the Academy Awards just "don't matter anymore," they'll be watching no matter what, dissecting every minute of the inevitably overlong telecast. So rather than bemoan the fact that this show (like any current televised awards event) isn't reaching as broad an audience anymore, maybe it's time to celebrate who it is for. Viewed through that prism, there's actually a lot to look forward to when envelopes are opened Sunday night. Since no announcement was made regarding a formal host, we're led to assume there won't be one again, which might be for the best, especially given there's sure to be even more modifications due to social distancing guidelines. 

Catching up on the nominees and making informed (if not necessarily correct) predictions in regards to these outcomes was much easier with so many conveniently streaming titles. Eliminating my biggest roadblock as a fan and critic definitely helped, opening the door to not only see and review all but one of Best Picture nominees, but circle back and take in many of the other categories as well. It's still a cram session to an extent, but at least it's actually done before the telecast for a change. This also better enabled me to have some more investment in the race this year, even as it's looking like a tougher road than expected in the final stretch for my two favorites, Promising Young Woman and The Father (and to a lesser extent, Mank).

As far as the issue of diversity amongst the nominations, it's still more of an industry problem that's trickled into an Oscar one, casting doubt that forthcoming mandatory inclusion requirements for Best Picture nominees will do much to address the actual source of those difficulties. Moving forward will depend more on studio level involvement than AMPAS, who are still wildly flailing to pick up the slack, resulting in more diverse slate than usual this year.

Even as it remains impossible to read members' minds to determine how they'll vote, condensing those three sound categories into one should at least slightly improve everyone's scorecard. Last year yielded my best results since 2014, so I'm holding out hope that I'll at least successfully predict Best Picture after what's become an increasingly long, embarrassing streak of incorrectly forecasting the night's biggest prize. Below are the nominations, along with my predicted winners and analysis for the major categories. As usual, I'm retaining the right to make any alterations beforehand. But once that show starts, it's go time.

*Predicted Winners  

Animated Feature Film  

Onward    

Over the Moon

A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Soul

Wolfwalkers

 

Animated Short Film

Burrow

Genius Loci

If Anything Happens I Love You

Opera

Yes-People

 

Documentary Feature

Collective

Crip Camp

The Mole Agent

My Octopus Teacher 

Time

 

Documentary Short Subject

Colette

A Concerto Is a Conversation

Do Not Split

Hunger Ward

A Love Song for Latasha

Live-Action Short Film

Feeling Through

The Letter Room

The Present

Two Distant Strangers

White Eye 

International Feature Film

Another Round (Denmark) 

Better Days (Hong Kong)

Collective (Romania) 

The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 

Film Editing

The Father (Yorgos Lamprinos)

Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

Promising Young Woman (Frédéric Thoraval)

Sound of Metal (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)  

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Alan Baumgarten)

Sound

Greyhound (Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman)

Mank (Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin)

News of the World (Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett)

Soul (Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker)

Sound of Metal (Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh)

Production Design

The Father (Peter Francis and Cathy Featherstone)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Mark Ricker, Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton)

Mank (Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale)

News of the World (David Crank, Elizabeth Keenan)

Tenet (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)

Costume Design

Emma (Alexandra Byrne)

Mank (Trish Summerville)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Ann Roth)

Mulan (Bina Daigeler)

Pinocchio (Massimo Cantini Parrini)

Original Score

Da 5 Bloods (Terence Blanchard) 

Mank (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross)

Minari (Emile Mosseri)

News of the World (James Newton Howard)

Soul (Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste)

Original Song

“Fight for You” (Judas and the Black Messiah)

“Hear My Voice” (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

“Húsavík” (Eurovision Song Contest)

“Io Si (Seen)” (The Life Ahead)

“Speak Now,” (One Night in Miami)

Makeup and Hairstyling

Emma (Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze)

Hillbilly Elegy (Eryn Krueger Mekash, Patricia Dehaney and Matthew Mungle)

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson)

Mank (Kimberley Spiteri, Gigi Williams and Colleen LaBaff)

Pinocchio (Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti)

Visual Effects

Love and Monsters (Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox)

The Midnight Sky (Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins)

Mulan (Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram)

The One and Only Ivan (Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez)

Tenet (Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher)

Cinematography

Judas and the Black Messiah (Sean Bobbitt)

Mank (Erik Messerschmidt)

News of the World (Dariusz Wolski)

Nomadland (Joshua James Richards)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Phedon Papamichael)

Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern and Nina Pedrad)

The Father (Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller)

Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)

One Night in Miami (Kemp Powers)

The White Tiger (Ramin Bahrani)

If the Oscar were given for most credited writers on a screenplay, Borat would surely have this in the bag. It's odd considering, that of all the nominees, the one that seemed to feature the most improvisation, utilized so many hands on its script. The White Tiger was a surprise inclusion to most and just fortunate to make it in. One Night in Miami underperformed in every category, making a victory here unlikely despite its merits. That leaves us with Nomadland and The Father, with fortune appearing to favor the former if only because its expected to run the table for the night and Zhao did such a commendable job distilling Jessica Bruder's non-fiction source material.

 

Original Screenplay

Judas and the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas and Keith Lucas)

Minari (Lee Isaac Chung) 

Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)

Sound of Metal (Darius Marder, Abraham Marder and Derek Cianfrance

The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

The Academy really loves Sorkin, just not as a director, so if they were to honor his timely Chicago 7, it would undoubtedly be here for its screenplay. Judas and the Black Messiah and Sound of Metal have been praised more for their performances than scripts, but if the former is caught up in a groundswell of support it isn't impossible this spoils with its socially relevant biographical slant. Supporting Actress is the only race in which Minari stands a chance, so a script win is probably far-fetched. This is the category Promising Young Woman seems most primed to grab. While it would do little to soften the blow of a potential Mulligan Best Actress loss, I'll take it anyway, especially amongst this competition. Even those lukewarm on PYW would have problems denying the originality and power of its clever, twisted script. This is Fennell's to lose. Let's hope she doesn't.     

 

Supporting Actress

Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) 

Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) 

Olivia Colman (The Father) 

Amanda Seyfried (Mank) 

Yuh-jung Youn (Minari)

Who can forget that look on Glenn Close's face when Olivia Colman swooped in and won what everyone assumed would be Close's long owed Best Actress statue for The Wife two years ago? It would be the cruelest of ironies if she lost to Colman again here, or maybe even crueler if Close  actually were to win for her widely reviled turn in Hillbilly Elegy. Given Oscar's history in this category, we can't put it past them. I loved former frontrunner Amanda Seyfried's performance in Mank, as did everyone. So, what happened? It did her no favors when the movie kind of died on the vine in terms of public perception, to the point that she's hardly even considered a possible spoiler, which is a shame. Borat's Maria Bakalova has been on a roll leading into this, but outside of very few instances (see Marissa Tomei) there isn't a strong precedent for the Academy rewarding work this broadly comedic, no matter how skilled. That leaves us with the underdog,Yuh-jung Youn, who just might pull this off. There's no better built-in story and we all know how the voters love that. Minari almost has to win something. This will probably be it.    

Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) 

Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) 

Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) 

Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) 

Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) 

Another tough one. There was some concern for a little bit that Paul Raci's widely respected performance in Sound of Metal wouldn't make it in, which would have been unfathomable, though  hardly a new low for AMPAS. Well, he's there, just probably not winning. Cohen's entertaining work as Abby Hoffman in Chicago 7 is, rightly or wrongly, just not being taken seriously as a threat. I still contend Frank Langella gave the best performance in that film, even if it's possible he could have faced the same obstacle. Leslie Odom Jr. is a worthy winner for capturing the essence of Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami but he'd stand a better chance in a less crowded field. Some category confusion here, as both Kaluuya and Stanfield's performances could easily be considered for lead, especially the latter, who makes a stronger impression, if not necessarily the louder one. Kaluuya's performance is the one they'll honor.

Lead Actress

Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) 

Andra Day (The United States v. Billie Holiday) 

Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) 

Frances McDormand (Nomadland) 

Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) 

As the only nominee whose film hasn't landed in the public's conciousness at all, Pieces of a Woman's Vanessa Kirby is out, which isn't an indictment of the performance so much as a reflection of the way the wind's blowing right now. There's the feeling that McDormand's won too much already, but if anyone can overcome that, especially amidst all the Nomadland love, it's her. Viola Davis and Andra Day are running neck-and-neck for their musically inclined turns as Ma Rainey and Billie Holiday, respectively. While the latter boasts no other nominations, Day seems to have picked up momentum of late with her Globes win and the fact that her performance as the legendary crooner has just been better received than Davis' more flamboyant work. But what Davis has going for her is the opposite of McDormand in that voters will likely perceive she's long overdue for a win, despite already having a Supporting Actress statue on her mantle.

As the #MeToo avenger thwarting would be rapists and their enablers in Promising Young Woman, Carey Mulligan gave the best performance of the year in my favorite film. But she's definitely lost some momentum of late, having been embroiled in a minor controversy and coming up short in the precursors (even the Globes) while the Academy seems suddenly intent on rewarding SAG winner Davis. The thought of her triumphing alongside late co-star Chadwick Boseman is the kind of soul-affirming narrative that would have members frantically rushing to mark their ballots, even while most agree it's far from her best performance. But it's still a stain on the Academy that no black actress before or after Halle Berry has won in this category's history. If they want to fix that, there's no more deserving or widely respected a choice than Davis. Mulligan should win, but my worst Oscar instincts are telling me she won't. I'd love to be wrong. 

Lead Actor

Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) 

Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) 

Anthony Hopkins (The Father) 

Gary Oldman (Mank) 

Steven Yeun (Minari)

The biggest lock of the night, as Boseman will surely join Peter Finch as the only other posthumous Oscar winner in this category What's worth noting is that the actor really never was given his due respect as a performer while alive, at least by the Oscars.What else could explain how his work in 42, Black Panther, Marshall, and most glaringly, Get On Up, received no recognition from the Academy? Now they have a chance to right that wrong, even if it's frustrating that his big breakthrough had to happen like this. It isn't often we affix the word "underrated" to someone who wins a posthumous Oscar, but here's a case where that designation definitely applies.

Boseman's only competition is BAFTA victor Hopkins, and it's here where circumstances do count since the acting legend would have assuredly won in any other year for his career best portrayal of a man in the throes of dementia. Minari's Steven Yeun is a non-starter, even if the nod will likely do a lot for his big screen prospects moving forward. After some very early momentum, Gary Oldman's chances for Mank went the way of Seyfried's for that film, while Riz Ahmed seems to have also inexplicably faded from the conversation. Brace for a highly emotional moment when Boseman's name is announced.    

Director

Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)

David Fincher (Mank) 

Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) 

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) 

Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)

The other lock of the night, as the inevitable Chloe Zhao victory checks a lot of the Academy's boxes. As only the second woman to take this honor, as well as the first Asian woman, the strongest argument for her is that she's completely deserving, as Nomadland's direction is arguably what made it soar. Many are still shocked Another Round's Vinterberg squeezed his way in, but good for him, as the inclusion should considerably raise his profile. Will David Fincher ever win an Oscar? Does he care? Doubtful, but it's not like many expected it to happen this year for Mank, given its somewhat mixed reception.While an undeniable achievement, Minari's unfortunately become a slot-filler at this point, with Lee Isaac Chung deserving of whatever post-Oscar boost he gets. Fennell's exciting, razor sharp direction of Promising Young Woman is that much more remarkable when you consider its challenging tone, but there's just no way voters are going there. We know this. Even if Nomadland somehow didn't take Best Picture, Zhao would still easily walk away with this one.  

Picture

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

In tackling a now more suddenly urgent event from decades prior, The Trial of the Chicago 7 may seem prescient, but it's thought of in many circles as the category's weakest entry, feeling done for after coming out of the gate so strongly for Netflix. The same can almost be said for Mank, though it never really got off the ground this season at all. Minari's nod is reward enough, while Sound of Metal lacks the scope and breadth voters often go for when determining winners in this race. Rewarding Judas and the Black Messiah would send a strong message, but certain portions of that film hit harder than others and it already feels as if Supporting Actor is the first and only order of business with it. 

The year's most overlooked dark horse is the superb The Father, but there hasn't been a big push for the film in enough circles until recently and it lacks the widespread awareness typically associated with a Best Picture. If even Hopkins can't win for the performance of his life, it's hard to believe this upset is possible. Should Promising Young Woman accomplish the unthinkable it would probably be one of the darker recent winners. It's not a complete downer in the traditional sense, but you get the idea. They're just not doing it.

The only thing standing in Nomadland's way are complaints that the film brushes over Amazon's allegedly dangerous working conditions for elderly employees. This would matter more if this were a documentary about corporate malfeasance, but for the exact purposes of Zhao's story, it carries very little weight. Plus, we know how the Academy detests controversies slipping into their life-affirming worldview, so they won't be swayed. It's essentially a human tragedy, but one that gives them no more  despair than they can handle, emerging as the ideal flagbearer by addressing socially, politically, economically relevant issues in a non-controversial way. It expertly walks that Oscar tightrope and voters won't hate themselves afterwards, or at least not for reasons related to the film. This category's been a rollercoaster ride in recent years, but there just aren't many unpredictable options on the table this time around. Look for Director and Picture to match as Nomadland takes home the gold.