Over the past decade or so the Oscars have been getting harder and harder to predict. You can chalk it up to the preferential ballot system or an influx of new voters, but the shift is undeniable. And though we're free to speculate how we got here, there's no denying the fact there's never been a year quite like this one, where every major category is up for grabs. Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress could all be decided by a coin flip, which should both excite and frustrate viewers following along with their scorecards.
There's also an unprecedented scenario where a film championed as the clear favorite all season suddenly feels vulnerable as we head into the home stretch. Sinners may have earned a record breaking 16 nominations but One Battle After Another was always the film to beat, at least until very recently, further proving just how important it is to peak at the right time. Or in this case, the moment voters start receiving their ballots. So even if its nomination tally is out of hand, there's no denying the outpouring of support for Sinners, even if I find OBAA to be a far more deserving winner and legitimately the year's best.
Had votes been counted a month or two ago this would a completely different conversation, but any perceived bump OBAA got from real world events was brief, opening the door for Sinners across numerous categories previously thought to be out of reach. But is it too late? We'll soon find out the answer to that and whether early frontrunner Timothée Chalamet did really sabotage his Best Actor chances when Conan O' Brien returns to host the show this Sunday.
Statistics always play a role but they've never felt less important than in contests as close as these. Sometimes it's best to just follow your gut, buckle up and enjoy the ride since it's looking like we could have another Crash vs. Brokeback or Moonlight vs. La La Land on our hands. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the top races, including that brand new casting category.
*Predicted Winners
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
ANIMATED SHORT
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirat (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Butcher's Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen's Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva
FILM EDITING
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
COSTUME DESIGN
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
ORIGINAL SONG
"Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless)
"Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)
"I Lied to You" (Sinners)
"Sweet Dreams of Joy" (Viva Verdi!)
“Train Dreams” (Train Dreams)
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Though nearly every "major" race is tight, we can at least exclude this one, which is among the few where OBAA isn't competing against its top adversary. Paul Thomas Anderson's script has been locked as the screenplay winner for months having swept Critics Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA and WGA. It also hasn't wavered or shown the same holes here as in other categories, mostly due to a lack of competition. As the most prestigious and literary of the bunch, Hamnet stands the next best chance, followed by Frankenstein, Bugonia and Train Dreams, but all are real long shots in comparison. Enjoy this predictability while it lasts.
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sinners is on a similar screenplay trajectory with Ryan Coogler securing Critics Choice, BAFTA and the WGA, making a loss here virtually impossible, even on this night. It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value are underdogs that don't pose a serious threat and we've since come a long way from Marty Supreme being considered a frontrunner. Blue Moon is highly respected, but it boasts only one other nomination in Ethan Hawke. So at the end of the first round, you can say that OBAA and Sinners tie with a screenplay win each.
CASTING
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Secret Agent
Remember how excited everyone was when the Academy announced they'd finally be instituting a casting award? It's safe to say we all were until seeing the actual nominees and realizing that voters merely cut and pasted half the Best Picture category. Maybe part of the problem (aside from us lacking a concrete explanation of the qualifications) is that great casting is just so subjective and indeterminable, with even some classic films managing to succeed despite the lack of it.
The standout here is Marty Supreme, as casting directors filled major and minor roles with a plethora of outside the box performers who were perfectly suited for their parts, trained actor or not. But since this is mostly a popularity contest, Sinners' recent ensemble SAG win should help that close the deal. It's a shame voters managed to blow such a promising opportunity, opting instead to insert the same group of titles we'll be bombarded with all night.
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This extremely close three-way race might be the toughest to call of any category. Taylor has the Globe, Mosaku won BAFTA and Madigan's back in the forefront with her surprising SAG win. While all three leap through the screen with their performances, the latter has the showiest role of the bunch as Weapons' unforgettably creepy Aunt Gladys. Plus she's an industry vet fellow actors will want to reward for decades worth of great work, as proven by the response she drew for the SAG speech. Then again, she's the movie's sole nomination, could face genre bias and voters might decide to overlook her in favor of an up-and-comer, as they did with Demi Moore last year.
OBAA's Taylor would have been considered a lock just a couple of months ago, but she actually hasn't fallen that far, making it a safe bet her brief but powerful turn as Perfidia is still at the forefront of voters' minds. Sinners' Mosaku went from not even being on the radar for a nod to potential spoiler who's now suddenly riding a wave of momentum heading into the ceremony. If she can come through we'll at least have a pretty good idea how the film's chances stand in bigger categories.
Sentimental Value actresses Fanning and Ibsdotter will get a "thank you for coming," as they're unlikely to earn enough votes to make any serious dent, perhaps even cancelling each other out. A race this close barely favors Madigan, but a lack of precursor wins and Weapons' absence in the Best Picture category gives me pause. Still, that recent SAG victory puts her over the top.
Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Early favorite Skarsgård doesn't even seem to be in the conversation anymore, Elordi never was and a fantastic Del Toro suffers from having to split votes with his OBAA co-star. That leaves us with Penn and Lindo in one of the more highly anticipated contests of the night. For all the hype surrounding Lindo, you haven't heard much about the actual performance, which didn't feel award worthy to me, at least on an initial viewing. But this is a career achievement prize above all else and there's no better way to honor a great, highly respected actor in his seventies who's inexplicably gone decades without a nomination until now.
Lindo's narrative may be too too strong to ignore, but so is Penn's disturbing, explosively bizarre performance as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw, which ideally fits the template of a supporting Oscar winner. While the actor isn't widely beloved and will likely be skipping the ceremony, that didn't stop voters from awarding him twice before and won't again now. The only question left is whether this flood of adoration for Sinners is enough to power Lindo over the finish line. Maybe, but Penn's recent SAG win raised his stock considerably.
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Those speculating that The Bride's box office failure could spell trouble for Buckley should remember it was released after ballots were already turned in. But it's not like this would make a bit of difference anyway since she's the lockiest of locks, winning every precursor imaginable since the season started. Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, SAG. So she could have starred in a Norbit sequel and it still wouldn't have hurt her chances. It's just the right role at the right time for the right actress, creating an overwhelming consensus that none of her fellow nominees can compete with. It's also the only performance here that doesn't come down to a matter of taste, with even those lukewarm on the film praising her tremendous work in it.
Rose Byrne is probably in second place, but the movie's underseen, causing her performance to fly under the radar, with most only talking about how trying it is to sit through. Two-time Oscar winner Stone would be my personal pick for her complex turn as an abducted CEO in the mind blowing Bugonia, but with Buckley in the race, she won't be getting a third statue. Hudson's nod for Song Sung Blue feels reminiscent of Sandra Bullock's for The Blind Side, but minus the win. This makes Reinsve the odd woman out for Sentimental Value, but given the competition, that's nothing to be ashamed of. Buckley has it in the bag.
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
It's not voters' jobs to "humble" actors but sometimes they just can't help themselves, even when only the quality of a performance should matter. Chalamet was probably rehearsing his acceptance speech up until a couple of weeks ago when Michael B. Jordan so shockingly won the SAG that even he couldn't believe it, appearing genuinely stunned.
Combine that with Chalamet's campaign flying off the rails, Marty Supreme losing momentum and just the overall vibe in that room after Jordan won suggests he's no longer the underdog for his dual role as twins Smoke and Stack. Did Chalamet really just cost himself the Oscar? Well, he's probably not winning, although there's no way to know if Jordan would have closed the gap anyway. The shame is that Chalamet's performance is better, but he'll now have to wait his turn like others before him. And you can bet his publicist will be keeping him on a shorter leash next time.
The idea that the two fronrunners will somehow cancel each other out and The Secret Agent's untested Wagner Moura will swoop in to take the trophy is wishful thinking at best. Blue Moon just hasn't had enough of a presence outside Hawke's performance to give him a chance, with his deserved first nomination feeling like an award in itself. Leo was always top of mind for his stoned out, washed up revolutionary in OBAA without ever really being considered a strong possibility to win. The safe money's on Jordan, who's someone very few would have predicted even just last month.
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Here's one category Sinners hasn't been able to shake up, if only because the groundswell of support for Paul Thomas Anderson winning his long overdue Academy Award seems unanimous, regardless of what happens elsewhere. PTA sweeping all four major precursors isn't just an indicator that OBAA is still holding strong, but that Ryan Coogler hasn't been able to get a foothold into this race despite all his film's other accolades.
Of course, we could have a Picture/Director split, but even that's unlikely to stop PTA from walking away with an honor he should have received at least three or four movies ago. OBAA also struck a universal chord, revealing even more dimensions to his talent and connecting with the mainstream audiences in a way few would have expected. Even better, this isn't some "make up" Oscar, as most wouldn't hesitate placing it toward the top of his filmography.
Aside from Coogler, the rest of the nominees don't really stand a chance since you could have easily changed out any of the three remaining directors and gotten the same result. If PTA somehow loses this to Coogler (which is possible) you can kiss OBAA's chances at the big prize goodbye. Conversely, if he wins, that still doesn't ensure a Best Picture victory. It's a tough spot to be in.
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Since we have to cancel out any film without a Director nomination, we'll say goodbye to my Bugonia, F1 (a requisite big box office inclusion), Frankenstein, The Secret Agent and an underappreciated Train Dreams. Marty Supreme is amazing but its momentum stalled along with Chalamet's. Hamnet and Sentimental Value are arthouse endeavors lacking the broad appeal to break through, even as the former still sits comfortably in third place.
On paper, this race should have been over months ago, but many mitigating factors are at play, a few of which only came into view within the past couple of weeks. OBAA impressively won PGA, DGA and WGA, failing only to clinch that SAG Ensemble, which went to a surging Sinners. But unfortunately no film has ever won Best Picture on just that victory alone.
Further working in OBAA's favor is that only three films in history managed to lose the big one after winning three of the four major guilds. That's a glaring stat but also somewhat misleading when you consider those losses predate the Academy's preferential voting system, which would seem to favor a popular crowd pleaser like Sinners. A combination of industry support following that unfortunate BAFTA incident and the enthusiastic reaction to those SAG wins have helped give it a huge bump at crunch time, only increasing its chances at defying the odds.
While firsts happen and it remains entirely possible all previously held stats can just break, OBAA dominated the season, leaving little time for Sinners to stake its claim. But it's still feasible Oscar voters' minds were made up and one SAG Ensemble win wasn't going to make a difference. So I'm reluctantly going with OBAA, acknowledging that chance Sinners could very well pull off the upset.
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