Showing posts with label Parasite. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Parasite. Show all posts

Friday, March 20, 2020

Parasite



Director: Bong Joon-Ho
Starring: Song Kang-ho, Choi Woo-shik, Park So-dam, Jang Hye-jin, Lee Sun-kyun, Cho Yeo-jeong, Jung Ji-so, Jung Hyeon-jun, Lee Jung-eun, Park Myung-hoon, Park Geun-rok, Park Seo-joon
Runing Time: 132 min.
Rating: R

★★★★ (out of ★★★★)

If ever a film stood as the ultimate warning against the dangers of job recommendations, it's Parasite. A seemingly qualified candidate is hired, only to turn around and recommend their friend or relative, who in turn hears about another open position that someone they know would be perfect for. So on and so forth. Before long, an entire company, or in this case, an actual household, is overrun by a group of people who are all directly related in some way. Just replace the word "qualified" with "scammer" and you have a vague plot description of the first foreign film to win the Best Picture Oscar. And yet there's so much more, as an innocuous proposition evolves into a massive morality play unfolding over the course of two hours with darkly hilarious thrills and suspense, before making a detour into pure terror for its final act.

Acclaimed South Korean writer/director Bong Joon-ho juggles numerous balls in the air, as hardly a minute passes where you don't at least consider that the whole picture could just collapse under the weight of its lofty ambitions. But it never does, continuing to gather steam as it rolls, adding more outlandish and exciting wrinkles to what feels like an international answer to moviegoers complaints that there are no original stories anymore.There's only one Parasite, and the longer you examine all its themes and implications, the harder it becomes to name another film that even slightly resembles it, domestically or abroad.

Its title would seem to say it all, but in this story of a poor family infiltrating the household of a wealthy one by posing as unrelated, but marginally qualified applicants, we're frequently challenged to examine the nature that parasitic relationship that develops by questioning who's really leeching off whom. Complicating matters is that both families seem to exist in a shade of grey, each with as many unlikable qualities as endearing ones. Clueless in some ways while perceptive in others. We laugh with and at both of them until it's evident that the entertainment each provides will have come to a screeching halt, and we're forced to take bets on who will survive. And more importantly, what the definition of survival even is in this scenario.

The Kim family live in a small basement apartment trying to make ends meet with their low-paying jobs as pizza box folders. But when son Ki-Woo (Choi Woo-shik) receives an offer from friend and  departing university student Min-hyuk (Park Seo-joon) to take over his job as English tutor to Da-hye (Jung Ji-so), the teen daughter of the wealthy Park family, Posing as a college student, Ki-Woo immediately impresses the smitten girl and her nervous, overprotective mother, Mrs. Park (Cho Yeo-jeong), who nicknames him "Kevin."

Ki-Woo's master plan is now set in motion, using the new position to help his family infiltrate the Park residence, with each recommending the other for various job openings within the house, all of which are created by their own manipulations. His sister Ki-Jung (Park So-dam) poses an "art therapist" to the Park's hyperactive young son, Da-song (Jung Hyeon-jun), and after a couple of really clever ruses, Father Ki-taek (Song Kang-ho) and mother Chung-sook (Jang Hye-jin) get themselves hired to replace Mr. Park's (Lee Sun-kyun) chauffeur and longtime housekeeper, Moon-gwang (Lee Jung-eun), respectively.

With little to no experience, they've found a way to assume these identities and weasel their way into the luxurious, Architectural Digest-ready home of the Park's. But it isn't as if this wealthy, but naive family isn't getting Kim's services in return, as the invaders will soon discover just how far they can take this ruse before being found out, and the potentially dangerous consequences for all involved. 

Once the offer is presented to Ki-Woo, it's off to the races and rarely does the film slow down for a beat to even process the wildness about to unfold, so much of its hilarity stemming from the Kim family's dedication to carrying this invasion out with exacting perfection. It's surprise just how cleverly they manage to displace the Park's live-in employees, but the glee they take upon conning these insulated rich folks.

From the second we meet the loud, scheming, abrasive Kims in their basement-dwelling apartment with a view of pedestrians peeing on the sidewalk, they're clearly established as a certain class of family that could only dream of attaining the lifestyle their eventual employers have. It's not necessarily because they're lazy or dumb, as all of them go many steps past merely "playing" the part required for them to gain the Park's acceptance and approval.

That all the Kims actually do the work and are pretty good at it serves to only complicate and challenge viewer expectations. But ultimately they prove incapable of curbing their more leacherous tendencies, arrogantly sinking too far into their own game to see all the potential roadblocks, one of which will eventually undo them. Horrible, but delightfully entertaining, it becomes harder to root against the Kims the more entertaining we realize they are, particularly during a memorable sequence involving the housekeeper's peach allergy. Everything they do is basically awful, but Bong Jonn-ho is so smart that he muddies the waters by making the Park's, if not equally as unlikable, still deeply flawed.

As the naive Mrs. Park, Cho Yeo-jeong gives one of the film's best and most broadly comedic supporting performances as a worrisome young mother too isolated in her enclave of wealth to question anything, or even know that you can. But at least she's involved, which is more than can be said for Mr. Park, so entrenched in his tech company that the quickest solution to any family problem is to throw money at it. Neither are bad people nor horrible parents, just incredibly clueless ones, making them sitting ducks for the Kims, who reside in greyer moral territory as characters.

They're all opportunists, but it's easy to believe Ki-Woo would have somehow found a way into this house with or without his friend's offer. Initially, he's extemely likable, but it's that likability he uses to his and his family's advantage, winning over Mrs. Park as a tutor and her daughter as his girlfriend, whom he steals right from under his friend. A case can be made that of all the Kims, he's the worst, so major credit to Choi Woo-shik for making him appear to be exactly the opposite.

As his sister, Park So-Dam's performance as Ki-Jung (a.k.a art teacher "Jessica") is captivating in the sense that she's the family member, as is commented, who most seems most at home in this rich world. And maybe the only one of the Kims you could imagine believably having that life under different circumstances. It begs the question of why she doesn't, or any of them don't, which is something the movie never runs from, nor pretends to necessarily have the answer to.

As their parents, Song Kang-ho and Jang Hye-jin first seem as if they're being dragged along for the ride, until the layers of their performances within performances start to unspool, particularly the former's as Ki-taek, whose goofy behavior masks a subtly turbulant relationship with his employer based on class and perception. It's reminder that no matter how well the Kims may seem to assimilate into this lifestyle, they'll never be able to shake the literal and figurative stench of their poverty. And the Parks, even unconciously, can't resist reminding them.

Bong Joon-ho's ultimate trick is the film's third-act pivot from extremely dark suburban comedy into pure horror, but its craftmanship comes from a perfectly calibrated tonal shift, with all the seeds previously planted to confirm that was the inevitable destination. It's almost become a cliche to say that a certain setting is a character, but it's rarely been truer than here as an almost agresssively modern house that's all visual artiface--beautifully sterile and open---reveals its hidden depths and secrets, much like the characters sharing space within it.

The film's worldwide appeal is evident in just the strong foothold it's had in the U.S., winning its top cinematic prize and having rabid mainstream audiences lining up to see a subtitled South Korean picture. Much of that stems from so effectively hitting on a universal theme not entirely unfamiliar to each demographic in every nation across the board: class warfare. It's hard to watch without at least considering how American cinema has treated suburban privilege in films like American Beauty and The Ice Storm, or even a tv series such as Mad Men. Most exist in a vacccum unto their own, focusing on how badly the well-off have it, rather than exploring the viewpoint of those looking in from the outside. Parasite is all about how little regard the Kims would have for the characters in them, despite desiring everything their lives entail. 

Monday, February 10, 2020

Burning Questions from the 2020 Oscars




Do you cringe in fear each year wondering how they'll open the show?

Did this not disappoint?

When Janel Monae walked onto the Mr. Rogers set, did you think ABC was staging another one of their live primetime reenactments?

Did she just really dress up as the May Queen from Midsommar?

Did Midsommar really just get a musical tribute at the Oscars?

Is this actually happening?

Can you pinch me now, please?

Should I take everything back I ever said about the Oscars?

Did most of the audience at home probably have no clue what the hell was happening?

Why aren't they showing Florence Pugh's reaction?! 

Shouldn't Midsommar have been nominated for...everything?

Or at the very least, costume and production design?

Is this the next best thing?

Can you believe I didn't review it?

Shouldn't we rectify that?

Or at least the best thing since Michael J. Fox showed up with Seth Rogen in a DeLorean?

Weren't those also costumes from Dolemite, Queen and Slim and Us?

Noticing a pattern?

Could the Academy possibly be apologizing for something?

Shouldn't Chris Rock be announced as the star of the upcoming Saw spinoff?

Did you remember Regina King won last year?

And for what?

Wasn't Brad's speech kind of a downer?

Impeachment hearings...really?

Were you thinking, "wait until Joaquin takes the stage?"

Did you know this was Pitt's second Oscar?

And that the other was for producing Moonlight?

Will an animated feature ever be nominated for Best Picture again?

First of many Kobe mentions?

Are Star Wars fans still whining about Kelly Marie Tran?

After delivering that line about reloading Keanu's Matrix, should we blame them?

Shouldn't he have been introduced as the star of the upcoming Bill and Ted Face the Music?

Did we just hear Keanu read the Parasite script?

And wasn't that awesome?

Does any movie have more heat behind it right now than Parasite?

Are you glad they chose the Joker stair scene as its screenplay clip?

Is Taika Waititi the first director playing Hitler in his own movie to win a screenplay Oscar?

Shouldn't Shia LeBouf been nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Honey Boy?

Isn't it The Neighbor's WINDOW?

Do you think the winners even care?

The Conners is still on?

Wasn't rewarding Once upon a Time in Hollywood's incredible production design the absolute right call?

Weren't Maya Rudolph and Kristin Wiig kind of insufferable?

Didn't it look like Billie Eilish agreed? 

Well, at least Greta Gerwig kind of won something...right?

Is Chrissy Metz delivering an Adelegram?

Tony Hawk?!

Is Florence Pugh the new Jennifer Lawrence?

Anyone surprised by Laura Dern's win?

Did you think "this is probably gonna be good" when she took the stage?

And wasn't it?

What if I told you five years ago you'd hear, "I'd like to thank Netflix" during an Oscar acceptance speech? 

After pitching a perfect 11 for 11 Oscar game so far, was I instructing no one to speak to me in the dugout?

Isn't it surprising they haven't done a movie song montage before?

Not a question but...La Bamba!

Didn't you just know I'd mention Huey Lewis and the News' brilliant "The Power of Love" from Back to the Future?

Is Eminem really on stage right now performing "Lose Yourself?"

Isn't it one of the best choices ever for Original Song?

Isn't that Mekhi Phifer line great?

Isn't it a shame they bleeped out three quarters of the song?

Didn't Scorsese look confused?

Wasn't it interesting to discover who in the audience were Eminem fans?

Am I looking at YOU, Brie Larson and Gal Gadot?

Isn't it fitting one of those damned sound categories ruined my streak?

Has anyone's scorecard ever survived those categories?

Am I kind of relieved I missed one?

Can I breathe now?

Doesn't Randy Newman have just the right voice for the types of songs he performs?

Does that make him the Bob Dylan of movie soundtracks?

Shouldn't Julia Louis Dreyfuss and Will Ferrell host (if we still had hosts)?

Are they rushing through the categories so quickly that it's becoming difficult to tell which they are?

It took this long to open an Academy museum?

Haven't they been talking about it for the past twenty telecasts?

Not a question but...Zazie Beetz!!

Doesn't "making good time" seem to be a top priority on this year's telecast?

Are you hoping that doesn't tastelessly apply to the In Memoriam segment?

Shouldn't we have known Rebel Wilson and James Corden would come out dressed as Cats?

Did those costumes look better than the CGI in the movie?

Did Sandra Oh just take a dig at Netflix?

Wait, did those makeup artists really just win an Oscar for "transforming" Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman into beautiful blonde Fox News anchors?

Did that International Feature Film award just insure that Bong Joon Ho won't be returning to the podium later?

Why should the best foreign and animated films be jettisoned off into their own categories?

Can you believe that song was Rocketman's sole nomination?

Remember when Taron Egerton was being talked about as a serious Best Actor contender?

Does anyone under the age of 55 still watch American Idol?

Is it strange that I haven't heard of Taika Waititi until this year?

After that whole intro, didn't you just know who'd be winning Best Original Score?

Has there ever been two more intrinsically linked creative collaborators than Elton John and Bernie Taupin?

When Bong Joon Ho was somewhat shockingly announced as Best Director, did you become a little less sure Parasite wasn't winning the big one?

Wasn't it cool of him give shout-outs to Scorsese and Tarantino?

Doesn't seem like we just saw Billie Eilish on an awards show, like last weekend?

Wasn't that a haunting "Yesterday" cover?

Um, Luke Perry? 

Has this show moved at a fast clip or what?

Are we getting used to this no host thing?

Remember when Olivia Colman beat Glenn Close for Best Actress last year?

Did Colman's likability just remind us why?

Were you wondering which Joaquin Phoenix we'd get tonight?

Did you soon realize we'd be getting shy, nervous, babbling Joaquin?

As far as cause speeches go, wasn't it at least a little less painful than you expected?

How many Oscars would River Phoenix have by now?

Who ever thought we'd see Renee Zellweger on that stage again...accepting an Oscar?

Do you remember her talking with that much of a twang?

Am I the only one who still thinks Anne Hathaway could crush it as Judy Garland?

Who's that woman they introduced as Jane Fonda?

How many years in a row can I miss Best Picture?

Does this win mean that everyone can hate on Parasite now?

Are 1917 tribute sites popping up online as we speak?

Does this prove Parasite was so good that even the Academy couldn't deny it?

Were they really going to close the curtain on them?

Did you see Tom Hanks and Charlize Theron's reactions to it?

At this hour, who even cares how long they go?

Haven't they done a decent job condensing the telecast and moving it along these past two years?

Was anyone watching to notice?

Isn't it great to have a Best Picture winner that everyone actually seems to love?

Who thought the the Oscars could ever end before midnight?

Saturday, February 8, 2020

2020 Oscar Predictions



Well, this one really snuck up on us. The shortened Oscar season resulted in a mad scramble to get all the films released and seen within an increasingly shrinking window, culminating on February 9, when the 92nd Academy Awards telecast takes place from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. And now here we are. With less time for backlash to develop, smear campaigns to ensue and front runners to lose or gain footing, it'll be impossible to fully assess the implications of these unusual circumstances until it's over. But the bigger question might revolve around just how far the Academy's come in their goal of restoring relevancy to its brand and bringing more eyeballs to the telecast. While last year boasted box office heavy-hitters like Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther and A Star is Born, this one features better films (such as Joker and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) that also happened to be gigantic hits as well.

With films like The Irishman and Marriage Story, 2019 also saw the first real display of awards dominance from Netflix and other streaming services, which are now becoming the go-to destination for contemporary adult dramas. While there are still complaints the Academy hasn't done enough to diversify and the battle to hold on to its stodgy traditions is playing out in real time with the 1917 vs. Parasite showdown, it does remain one of the few awards shows that make it about the movies. And despite still being too long by half, the decision to go hostless has recently led to a tighter, more watchable telecast that's been more undpredictable than usual, especially in the Best Picture race. My predictions are below, along with an analysis of some major categories. And of course, I'm retaining the option to make any adjustments until the show begins. There's a good chance I'll need to. 


*Predicted Winners
 
Animated Feature Film:
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Animated Short Film:
Dcera
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Documentary Feature:
American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Documentary Short Subject:
In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Live Action Short Film:
Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors’ Window
Saria
A Sister

International Feature Film:
Corpus Christi
Honeyland
Les Miserables
Pain and Glory
Parasite

Film Editing:
Ford v Ferrari (Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland)
The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Jojo Rabbit  (Tom Eagles)
Joker (Jeff Groth)
Parasite (Jinmo Yang)

Sound Editing:
Ford v Ferrari (Don Sylvester)
Joker (Alan Robert Murray)
1917 (Oliver Tarney, Rachel Tate)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Wylie Stateman)
Star Wars: The Rise of SkyWalker (Matthew Wood and David Acord)

Sound Mixing:
Ad Astra (Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano)
Ford vs. Ferrari (Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven A. Morrow)
Joker (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland)
1917 (Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler and Mark Ulano)

Production Design:
The Irishman (Bob Shaw and Regina Graves)
Jojo Rabbit (Ra Vincent and Nora Sopkova)
1917 (Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh)
Parasite (Lee Ha-Jun and Cho Won Woo, Han Ga Ram, and Cho Hee)

Costume Design:
The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)
Jojo Rabbit (Mayes C. Rubeo)
Joker (Mark Bridges)
Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)

Original Score:
Joker (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)
Marriage Story (Randy Newman)
1917 (Thomas Newman)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)

Original Song:
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman
“I’m Standing With You,” Breakthrough
“Into the Unknown,” Frozen 2
“Stand Up,” Harriet

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Bombshell (Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan and Vivian Baker)
Joker (Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou)
Judy (Jeremy Woodhead)
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten and David White)
1917 (Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis and Rebecca Cole)

Visual Effects:
Avengers: Endgame (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken and Dan Sudick)
The Irishman (Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser and Stephane Grabli)
The Lion King (Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones and Elliot Newman)
1917 (Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler and Dominic Tuohy)
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach and Dominic Tuohy)

Cinematography:
The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)
Joker (Lawrence Sher)
The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)
1917 (Roger Deakins)
Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (Robert Richardson)

Adapted Screenplay:
The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)
Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)
Little Women (Greta Gerwig)
The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)

This is a typically strong field that when closely examined does reveal a clear-cut favorite. The Irishman will best be remembered for Scorsese's direction and the performances rather than Zaillian's sprawling screenplay. It acually still has a better chance at Picture than here, despite those odds having also waned considerably in the past month. We all know what Joker's winning and The Two Popes in a non-starter, so it comes down to whether Waititi's Jojo Rabbit script made enough waves to displace the more polarizing Little Women as frontrunner. Strangely, it could have, as the Academy's opportunity to honor the popular, talented Greta Gerwig with her first Oscar and make amends for overlooking her in the Director category may have to wait. While Little Women always seemed bound to walk away with something, eleventh hour surges for Jojo and Parasite have hurt its chances.

Original Screenplay:
Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
1917 (Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho, Jin Won Han)

Some really big contenders here, but only one screenplay voters will be falling all over themselves to coronate. Knives Out's reward was this nomination. 1917 will be collecting other hardware left and right, but it's hard to remember the last war film that won a screenplay Oscar. Baumbach seemed like a lock for Marriage Story at one point, but it's lost a lost of its buzz quickly in this truncated season. Parasite, on the other hand, is peaking at just the right time, making it entirely possible it pulls off the upset. But Tarantino is synonomous with writing awards, having taken home two Oscars already. The consensus is that if OUATIH doesn't win anything else (which it will), we're at least likely to get another one of his crazy acceptance speeches for this category. But I'm not so sure. It's a very close call and a win for Parasite could be a sign of bigger things to come late in the telecast. Or not.

Supporting Actress:
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

She's due. No one in this category has a chance of upsetting Laura Dern for Marriage Story, an Oscar that seems as locked up as any other in recent memory. Even in a category historically famous for upsets, there's little to no chance of us getting one here. Kathy Bates is superb in Richard Jewell but Scarlett Johansson, Florence Pugh, and Margot Robbie have to be considered the only "threats" because of the year each had, turning in potentially nominatable performances in other highly praised films. In Johansson's case, she's even a double nominee for Lead Actress. Pugh's Little Women work stands out as the best received of the bunch, and given the Academy's penchant for rewarding newcomers in this category, she has the least worst shot at beating Dern. But she won't. While Dern's performance in Marriage Story won't be called the most exciting or interesting of her career, it's solid enough, and that's what matters to voters looking to reward a likable person for a great career. In other words, they love her and it's time.

Supporting Actor:
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is Pitt's to lose. Pacino and Pesci will cancel each other out for The Irishman, with most believing that latter made a more meaningful impression in a true comeback performance. Despite being two of our most respected actors, the fact that the inclusions of Hanks and Hopkins seems odd is probably a sign their films don't have nearly enough support. For many, myself included, Pitt's performance as stuntman Cliff Booth in OUATIH is one of their favorites of the year, tapping into the actor's charisma and likablity like no other role before it. Combine that with him already being long overdue for a statue, this arguably qualifying as a leading role and a guaranteed acceptance speech of the night, his chances are looking pretty great. 

Lead Actress:
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

An unusually weak field this year, with Renee Zellweger a likely de facto winnner for the already fogotten Judy. The only "it's a thrill just to be nominated" contender is Cythia Erivo, who many feel took Nupita N'yongo's slot for Us. There's no question that the latter is a more compelling selection and probably would have made this a more intriguing race. As it stands, it couldn't be worse, with the very, very liberal Academy unlikely to honor Charlize Theron for playing Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly. And Bombshell's lost a lot of heat anyway. For voters, it may still seem too early to reward Saorise Ronan, but an upset's still possible. Scarlett Johansson's so good in Marriage Story, to the point that it might be my favorite performance of hers. But while it's hard to be dismissive of what feels like the most substantive work in the category, the Academy will probably find a way. They'll vote for the well-liked Zellweger, making a comeback playing a legendary movie star in a biopic. The perfect recipe for an Oscar win if there ever was one.  

Lead Actor:
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

No need to drag this out. Joaquin Phoenix, possibly our generation's greatest actor, will become the second performer in history to win an Oscar for the playing the Joker. Or more accurately, mentally ill, failed standup comedian, Arthur Fleck. And what a performance it is, as it's likely even his fellow nominees would have a rough time making the case he isn't deserving, regardless of anyone's feelings on the polarizing film. Banderas and Pryce squeezed their way in here, with little seen, but well regarded turns in Pain and Glory and The Two Popes, respectively. That's where their journeys end. Leo's great but it'll be Pitt's night. That leaves Adam Driver, Phoenix's most serious competititon. A month ago, this was closer, but Phoenix has really pulled away as Marriage Story faded into the background. In any other year, Driver would probably win. And it's a good bet he eventually will. Just not now. 

Director:
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

You'd think the Academy wouldn't resist the temptation to reward Martin Scorsese working at the peak of his powers in the twilight of his career, delivering an essential meditation on time and regret with The Irishman. But that's not exactly how they work. And boy is that movie long. Plus, in their minds, they already gave him his Oscar. The groundswell of industry support behind Phillips' direction of Joker, and the movie in general, was far greater than anticipated. So there's that. While a Tarantino victory for Original Screenplay (or even Best Picture) seems likelier than a win here, he has to still be considered a top threat, as does Bong Joon Ho, who's really come on strongly of late and has a legitimate claim on this prize with Parasite. We'll see if there's a split with Picture and Director, but you still have to go with Sam Mendes for 1917, knowing the Academy's historical affinity for war films and their likely appreciation of him telling a deeply personal family story that also connects on a universal level. 

Best Picture:
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

And then there were nine. Most were surprised, but elated, that Ford v Ferrari made it in. Same with JoJo Rabbit, and to a slightly lesser extent, Little Women. The Irishman and Marriage Story have lost some of their luster heading into a race where momentum means even more than usual. With its 11 nominations, Joker should be the odds-on favorite, and while I'd absolutely love to see it win, there's still that fear it's just too polarizing to get the number of votes necessary to pull this off. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is just as deserving, if not more so, but despite it being about movies, it may not be widely beloved enough by voters put off by the ending.  

1917 and Parasite are more up the Academy's alley and if the Foreign Film category (recently renamed International Feature Film category) didn't exist, then the suddenly red hot Parasite would become the first foreign language Best Picture winner. It still might, but my money's on the same obstacle that befell Roma last year, costing it the trophy. This is why it might be a good idea to eliminate that and the Animated Feature category, so those designated genre films can get a fair shot at the big prize.

Oscar traditions die hard, so put your money on the late-blooming 1917, which gives voters yet another reason to engage in one of their favorite pastimes: honoring a war film. It's something they haven't done since The Hurt Locker over a decade ago so we're due to take our vitamins. It's only drawback is the noticeable lack of an editing nomination, but even that isn't the dealbreaker it once was. Not being able to comfortably predict this outcome should only make the show that much better. In a virtual dead heat with Parasite, 1917 seems to be the likeliest and safest bet. Whether that translates into a win remains to be seen.