Burning Questions From The 2026 Oscars

Conan as Aunt Gladys?

 

Shouldn't Weapons have been nominated for more than just one Oscar?

 

Did that opening just give the whole movie away?

 

Aunt Gladys playing ping pong?

 

Aunt Gladys in KPop Demon Hunters?

 

Was that opening sketch an early sign Amy Madigan would win?

 

Didn't you know Conan wouldn't waste any time cracking a joke about Chalamet's ballet insult?

  

Wasn't he right about Ted Sarandos having never been to a theater? 

 

Is it safe to assume that won't change now since Netflix isn't buying Warner Bros.? 

  

Isn't it the sign of a good joke when the audience gasps with discomfort?

 

Did Conan's coronation ceremony make you want to see him actually win a Oscar?

 

Did you remember that Zoe Saldaña won Supporting Actress last year?

 

Actually, that one was kind of memorable wasn't it?

 

Is she aging in reverse?

 

Was everyone prepared to get that category wrong? 

 

Was everyone prepared to get every category wrong?

 

Did every Oscar prognosticator breathe a sigh of relief when Madigan won? 

 

Wasn't it a given she'd give an entertaining speech? 

 

Was Conan's "Let's see him put his name in front of that" the line of the night?

 

How about his story about telling his wife he's the same age as Brad Pitt?  

 

Any doubt KPop Demon Hunters would take Animated Feature? 

 

Did they try to play those winners off quickly or what?

 

Was that because Madigan went long? 

 

Was an upset winner for Animated Short the last thing anyone needed for their Oscar scorecard?

 

Was this the earliest in the show we've ever gotten a musical performance? 

 

Wasn't that whole Sinners thing kind of wild?

 

Did you hear how into it the audience was? 

 

Would it have gotten your attention if Frankenstein lost Costume Design to Sinners? 

 

Or Makeup to...The Smashing Machine?

 

Who expected the first bleep of the night to come in the Hair/Makeup category? 

 

Did you expect cast members to introduce each of their own film's casting directors?

 

Conflict of interest much? 

 

But wasn't it kind of great? 

 

How about that ovation for The Secret Agent? 

 

Remember how sure everyone seemed of a category we've never had before?

 

Should we be a little more careful when predicting this one next year?

 

Did you see it as an ominous sign that Sinners lost in a category it was thought to be locked for? 

 

Did that bode well  for OBAA's Best picture chances?

 

A TIE????!!!!

 

How do we count this on our ballots? 

 

Did you notice how careful Kumail was to reassure us it wasn't a joke after what we saw happen with Moonlight and La La Land?  

 

And wasn't he right about the irony of the Live Action Short category taking twice as long now?

 

Retracting the winner's mic? Really?

 

Is Chalamet ever going to live this whole ballet thing down?

 

Unless he wins the Oscar, apologizes and dedicates it to dancers worldwide? 

 

Should he know it's bad when winners are somehow incorporating it into their acceptance speeches?  

 

Did you remember Kieran Culkin won Supporting Actor last year?

 

Didn't you just know Sean Penn wouldn't be there?

 

"Or didn't want to?"

 

Wasn't that Casablanca skit with Sterling K. Brown pretty clever? 

 

Will it ever get tiresome seeing Paul Thomas Anderson accept a writing Oscar?

 

But isn't it about time for a directing one?  

 

Would Ryan Coogler somehow losing Original Screenplay doom Sinners for the rest of the night? 

 

Wasn't it great to see Billy Crystal on an Oscar stage again?

 

Could it possibly be under sadder circumstances?

 

Did you forget just how many popular, widely beloved titles Rob Reiner directed?

 

Did you spot Fred Savage on stage?

 

Wasn't that tribute an appropriate segue into the In Memoriam segment?

 

Is "appropriate" not usually the word we'd use to describe how they handle this portion of the show?  

 

Isn't it scary the names we lost his past year? 

 

Diane Keaton, Catherine O'Hara, Val Kilmer, Robert Duvall, Robert Redford?  

 

Did they really just leave out James Van Der Beek?!

 

Eric Dane?

Brigitte Bardot? 

 

How much longer are they going to keep pulling this?  

 

Aren't you just waiting to hear the producers' lame excuse...again? 

 

Were you about to lose it until remembering they did include Gene Hackman in last year's segment?   

 

Did anyone else have problems understanding Barbra Streisand?

 

Wait, doesn't everyone call her "Babs?"

 

Not a question but...Grogu!

 

Isn't Avatar always good for an easy Visual Effects win?

 

They really want to get this thing finished by 10:30 don't they?

 

Didn't Grogu try his best to clap?

 

Why does the upcoming The Mandalorian and Grogu movie feel four years too late?

 

Remember when that Kimmel guy hosted the Oscars?

 

Did its title alone sway members to vote for Mr. Nobody Against Putin? 

 

Did the lack of political speeches come to a screeching halt with this category?

 

Isn't F1 by far the weakest of the Best Picture nominees?

 

Am I the only one who doesn't get the deep affection for Bridesmaids? 

 

But wasn't that bit with the notes funny?

 

Did Maya Rudolph have the best opening line with "Earlier today while I was counting my money?" 

 

Did you expect the Academy President to look like a cross between Anna Camp and Brittany Snow?

 

Lewis Pullman does really look a lot like his dad doesn't he?

 

Did OBBA's editing win lock its Best Picture Oscar?

 

Or maybe not after that Sinners cinematography upset?

 

Can you believe a woman's never won in this category before now? 

 

Didn't Train Dreams deserve it?

 

Isn't "Golden" inbsanely catchy?   

Javier Bardem doesn't hold back does he? 

 

Did anyone remember that Lionel Ritchie won an Original Song Oscar for White Knights?

 

Or recall the last time Diane Warren wasn't nominated?

 

They really didn't want that "Golden" songwriter to speak did they?

 

Weren't the producers downright militant in cutting time this year?

 

Doesn't it feel good to finally say PTA has a directing Oscar? 

 

Wouldn't Zendaya and Pattinson in a PTA movie be intriguing? 

 

Isn't it the truth that Adrien Brody saved last year's show from running short? 

 

Has the Best Actor race ever been this tight? 

 

Okay, maybe not? 

 

Didn't Michael B. Jordan's mom look proud? 

 

Didn't he give a classy speech of appropriate length? 

 

But can we please keep Will Smith's name out of our mouths at the Oscars? 

 

So maybe it didn't end by 10:30 but they still made really good time didn't they? 

 

Is it hard for anyone to forget Mikey Madison beating Demi Moore last year? 

 

Was it even possible to imagine a scenario where Jessie Buckley loses? 

 

Are there any actors who can't sing?

 

Didn't the best film win for a change? 

 

How about that impressive 1975 Best Picture nominee list PTA rattled off? 

 

Isn't he right about Chase Infiniti being the heart of that movie? 

 

How was she not even nominated?  

 

But isn't it cool how she was named after two of 1995's most memorable movie characters?  

 

Was Marty Supreme just completely shut out? 

 

How about the show's ending skit? 

 

Was that even more of a spoiler than the opening?

 

Or maybe not, if you didn't know which nominated picture they were spoofing? 

 

Does appointing Conan as "Host For Life" actually not sound like such a bad idea? 

2026 Oscar Predictions

Over the past decade or so the Oscars have been getting harder and harder to predict. You can chalk it up to the preferential ballot system or an influx of new voters, but the shift is undeniable. And though we're free to speculate how we got here, there's no denying the fact there's never been a year quite like this one, where every major category is up for grabs. Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress could all be decided by a coin flip, which should both excite and frustrate viewers following along with their scorecards. 

There's also an unprecedented scenario where a film championed as the clear favorite all season suddenly feels vulnerable as we head into the home stretch. Sinners may have earned a record breaking 16 nominations but One Battle After Another was always the film to beat, at least until very recently, further proving just how important it is to peak at the right time. Or in this case, the moment voters start receiving their ballots. So even if its nomination tally is out of hand, there's no denying the outpouring of support for Sinners, even if I find OBAA to be a far more deserving winner and legitimately the year's best.  

Had votes been counted a month or two ago this would a completely different conversation, but any perceived bump OBAA got from real world events was brief, opening the door for Sinners across numerous categories previously thought to be out of reach. But is it too late? We'll soon find out the answer to that and whether early frontrunner Timothée Chalamet did really sabotage his Best Actor chances when Conan O' Brien returns to host the show this Sunday. 

Statistics always play a role but they've never felt less important than in contests as close as these. Sometimes it's best to just follow your gut, buckle up and enjoy the ride since it's looking like we could have another Crash vs. Brokeback or Moonlight vs. La La Land on our hands. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the top races, including that brand new casting category.           

 

*Predicted Winners   

 

ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

ANIMATED SHORT
Butterfly
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
The Perfect Neighbor

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
All the Empty Rooms
Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: Were and Are Gone
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
Sirat (Spain)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

LIVE ACTION SHORT 
Butcher's Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen's Period Drama
The Singers
Two People Exchanging Saliva 

FILM EDITING
F1
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners

SOUND
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners

COSTUME DESIGN
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners

ORIGINAL SCORE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners

ORIGINAL SONG
"Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless)
"Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)
"I Lied to You" (Sinners) 
"Sweet Dreams of Joy" (Viva Verdi!)
“Train Dreams” (Train Dreams)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Jurassic World: Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another 
Train Dreams

Though nearly every "major" race is tight, we can at least exclude this one, which is among the few where OBAA isn't competing against its top adversary. Paul Thomas Anderson's script has been locked as the screenplay winner for months having swept Critics Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA and WGA. It also hasn't wavered or shown the same holes here as in other categories, mostly due to a lack of competition. As the most prestigious and literary of the bunch, Hamnet stands the next best chance, followed by Frankenstein, Bugonia and Train Dreams, but all are real long shots in comparison. Enjoy this predictability while it lasts.        

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners

Sinners is on a similar screenplay trajectory with Ryan Coogler securing Critics Choice, BAFTA and the WGA, making a loss here virtually impossible, even on this night. It Was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value are underdogs that don't pose a serious threat and we've since come a long way from Marty Supreme being considered a frontrunner. Blue Moon is highly respected, but it boasts only one other nomination in Ethan Hawke. So at the end of the first round, you can say that OBAA and Sinners tie with a screenplay win each.         

CASTING
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Secret Agent

Remember how excited everyone was when the Academy announced they'd finally be instituting a casting award? It's safe to say we all were until seeing the actual nominees and realizing that voters merely cut and pasted half the Best Picture category. Maybe part of the problem (aside from us lacking a concrete explanation of the qualifications) is that great casting is just so subjective and indeterminable, with even some classic films managing to succeed despite the lack of it.    

The standout here is Marty Supreme, as casting directors filled major and minor roles with a plethora of outside the box performers who were perfectly suited for their parts, trained actor or not. But since this is mostly a popularity contest, Sinners' recent ensemble SAG win should help that close the deal. It's a shame voters managed to blow such a promising opportunity, opting instead to insert the same group of titles we'll be bombarded with all night.        

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Amy Madigan (Weapons)
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This extremely close three-way race might be the toughest to call of any category. Taylor has the Globe, Mosaku won BAFTA and Madigan's back in the forefront with her surprising SAG win. While all three leap through the screen with their performances, the latter has the showiest role of the bunch as Weapons' unforgettably creepy Aunt Gladys. Plus she's an industry vet fellow actors will want to reward for decades worth of great work, as proven by the response she drew for the SAG speech. Then again, she's the movie's sole nomination, could face genre bias and voters might decide to overlook her in favor of an up-and-comer, as they did with Demi Moore last year.  

OBAA's Taylor would have been considered a lock just a couple of months ago, but she actually hasn't fallen that far, making it a safe bet her brief but powerful turn as Perfidia is still at the forefront of voters' minds. Sinners' Mosaku went from not even being on the radar for a nod to potential spoiler who's now suddenly riding a wave of momentum heading into the ceremony. If she can come through we'll at least have a pretty good idea how the film's chances stand in bigger categories. 

Sentimental Value actresses Fanning and Ibsdotter will get a "thank you for coming," as they're unlikely to earn enough votes to make any serious dent, perhaps even cancelling each other out. A race this close barely favors Madigan, but a lack of precursor wins and Weapons' absence in the Best Picture category gives me pause. Still, that recent SAG victory puts her over the top.                    

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Early favorite Skarsgård doesn't even seem to be in the conversation anymore, Elordi never was and a fantastic Del Toro suffers from having to split votes with his OBAA co-star. That leaves us with Penn and Lindo in one of the more highly anticipated contests of the night. For all the hype surrounding Lindo, you haven't heard much about the actual performance, which didn't feel award worthy to me, at least on an initial viewing. But this is a career achievement prize above all else and there's no better way to honor a great, highly respected actor in his seventies who's inexplicably gone decades without a nomination until now. 

Lindo's narrative may be too too strong to ignore, but so is Penn's disturbing, explosively bizarre performance as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw, which ideally fits the template of a supporting Oscar winner. While the actor isn't widely beloved and will likely be skipping the ceremony, that didn't stop voters from awarding him twice before and won't again now. The only question left is whether this flood of adoration for Sinners is enough to power Lindo over the finish line. Maybe, but Penn's recent SAG win raised his stock considerably.          

ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)
Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Those speculating that The Bride's box office failure could spell trouble for Buckley should remember it was released after ballots were already turned in. But it's not like this would make a bit of difference anyway since she's the lockiest of locks, winning every precursor imaginable since the season started. Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, SAG. So she could have starred in a Norbit sequel and it still wouldn't have hurt her chances. It's just the right role at the right time for the right actress, creating an overwhelming consensus that none of her fellow nominees can compete with. It's also the only performance here that doesn't come down to a matter of taste, with even those lukewarm on the film praising her tremendous work in it. 

Rose Byrne is probably in second place, but the movie's underseen, causing her performance to fly under the radar, with most only talking about how trying it is to sit through. Two-time Oscar winner Stone would be my personal pick for her complex turn as an abducted CEO in the mind blowing Bugonia, but with Buckley in the race, she won't be getting a third statue. Hudson's nod for Song Sung Blue feels reminiscent of Sandra Bullock's for The Blind Side, but minus the win. This makes Reinsve the odd woman out for Sentimental Value, but given the competition, that's nothing to be ashamed of. Buckley has it in the bag.         

ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

It's not voters' jobs to "humble" actors but sometimes they just can't help themselves, even when only the quality of a performance should matter. Chalamet was probably rehearsing his acceptance speech up until a couple of weeks ago when Michael B. Jordan so shockingly won the SAG that even he couldn't believe it, appearing genuinely stunned. 

Combine that with Chalamet's campaign flying off the rails, Marty Supreme losing momentum and just the overall vibe in that room after Jordan won suggests he's no longer the underdog for his dual role as twins Smoke and Stack. Did Chalamet really just cost himself the Oscar? Well, he's probably not winning, although there's no way to know if Jordan would have closed the gap anyway. The shame is that Chalamet's performance is better, but he'll now have to wait his turn like others before him. And you can bet his publicist will be keeping him on a shorter leash next time. 

The idea that the two fronrunners will somehow cancel each other out and The Secret Agent's untested Wagner Moura will swoop in to take the trophy is wishful thinking at best. Blue Moon just hasn't had enough of a presence outside Hawke's performance to give him a chance, with his deserved first nomination feeling like an award in itself. Leo was always top of mind for his stoned out, washed up revolutionary in OBAA without ever really being considered a strong possibility to win. The safe money's on Jordan, who's someone very few would have predicted even just last month.               

DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)
Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Here's one category Sinners hasn't been able to shake up, if only because the groundswell of support for Paul Thomas Anderson winning his long overdue Academy Award seems unanimous, regardless of what happens elsewhere. PTA sweeping all four major precursors isn't just an indicator that OBAA is still holding strong, but that Ryan Coogler hasn't been able to get a foothold into this race despite all his film's other accolades. 

Of course, we could have a Picture/Director split, but even that's unlikely to stop PTA from walking away with an honor he should have received at least three or four movies ago. OBAA also struck a universal chord, revealing even more dimensions to his talent and connecting with the mainstream audiences in a way few would have expected. Even better, this isn't some "make up" Oscar, as most wouldn't hesitate placing it toward the top of his filmography. 

Aside from Coogler, the rest of the nominees don't really stand a chance since you could have easily changed out any of the three remaining directors and gotten the same result. If PTA somehow loses this to Coogler (which is possible) you can kiss OBAA's chances at the big prize goodbye. Conversely, if he wins, that still doesn't ensure a Best Picture victory. It's a tough spot to be in.             

BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams 

Since we have to cancel out any film without a Director nomination, we'll say goodbye to my Bugonia, F1 (a requisite big box office inclusion), Frankenstein, The Secret Agent and an underappreciated Train Dreams. Marty Supreme is amazing but its momentum stalled along with Chalamet's. Hamnet and Sentimental Value are arthouse endeavors lacking the broad appeal to break through, even as the former still sits comfortably in third place.  

On paper, this race should have been over months ago, but many mitigating factors are at play, a few of which only came into view within the past couple of weeks. OBAA impressively won PGA, DGA and WGA, failing only to clinch that SAG Ensemble, which went to a surging Sinners. But unfortunately no film has ever won Best Picture on just that victory alone. 

Further working in OBAA's favor is that only three films in history managed to lose the big one after winning three of the four major guilds. That's a glaring stat but also somewhat misleading when you consider those losses predate the Academy's preferential voting system, which would seem to favor a popular crowd pleaser like Sinners. A combination of industry support following that unfortunate BAFTA incident and the enthusiastic reaction to those SAG wins have helped give it a huge bump at crunch time, only increasing its chances at defying the odds. 

While firsts happen and it remains entirely possible all previously held stats can just break, OBAA dominated the season, leaving little time for Sinners to stake its claim. But it's still feasible Oscar voters' minds were made up and one SAG Ensemble win wasn't going to make a difference. So I'm reluctantly going with OBAA, acknowledging that chance Sinners could very well pull off the upset. 

Marty Supreme

Director: Josh Safdie
Starring: Timothée Chalamet. Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A'zion, Kevin O'Leary, Tyler Okonma, Abel Ferrara, Fran Drescher, Luke Manley, Emory Cohen, Larry Sloman, Ralph Colucci, Géza Röhrig, Koto Kawaguchi, Pico Iyer, John Catsimatidis, Sandra Bernhard, George Gervin, Ted Williams, Penn Jillette, Isaac Mizrahi, David Mamet, Fred Hechinger, Levon Hawke, Phillipe Petit
Running Time: 150 min.
Rating: R

★★★★ (out of ★★★★)     

The biggest surprise to come out of Josh Safdie's semi-biographical table tennis drama Marty Supreme isn't how much is constantly happening, but the frenetic, breakneck pace at which it all occurs. In fact, there's such a dizzying abundance of side quests, odd characters and cleverly constructed scenes you'll probably need a scorecard to keep track. And that's not even accounting for the myriad of familiar faces popping up throughout, many of whom aren't actors, but various pop culture personalities who seamlessly acclimate themselves into Safdie's period specific universe. 

Full of wild excursions and sub-plots, the action revolves around a cocky, unlikable main character with a single goal: letting the world know he's the best. But he's also a liar, conman and egotistical scam artist who won't hesitate stepping over everyone as he claws and scratches his way to the top. At one point he matter-of-factly predicts he'll be on a Wheaties box without so much as a hint of irony or doubt. For him, it's all about reaching the coveted World Championships, with all of the film's creatively calamitous detours existing in the service of getting him there.

It's New York City in 1952 and shoe salesman Marty Mouser (Timothée Chalamet) is working at his uncle Murray's (Larry Sloman) shop while competing professionally as a table tennis player. On the cusp of being promoted to store manager, he's having on an affair with married childhood friend Rachel (Odessa A'zion), even as his sights remain set on playing in the British Open. But when a broke Marty can't convince his uncle to give him money for the trip, he takes drastic action, arriving at the tournament only to lose in the finals to deaf Japanese rival Koto Endo (real life table tennis player Koto Kawaguchi). 

While in London, Marty starts another affair with former actress Kay Stone (Gwyneth Paltrow), whose wealthy pen magnate husband Milton Rockwell (Kevin O' Leary) makes him a lucrative offer to lose an exhibition match to Endo in Japan. Taking this as an insult, Marty continues touring with friend and former champion Béla Kletzki (Géza Röhrig) as an opening act for the Harlem Globetrotters until he faces a stiff ITTA fine and possible ban for his unprofessional tournament conduct. After desperately convincing taxi driver pal Wally (Tyler Okonma) to help him hustle local players for cash, chaos ensues, forcing Marty to rethink Rockwell's offer, even if that means sacrificing his integrity for cash and a chance at competing in the World Championships. 

Though Marty and Rockwell are at odds from the moment they meet, both could believably benefit from this proposed business arrangement since each are selfishly motivated by their separate desires to see the sport's popularity take off in America. For Marty, it can mean greater exposure and fame while Rockwell sees dollar signs, not to mention the opportunity to exploit a brash young punk he'll tolerate just long enough to get what he wants.  

While the title character is loosely based on late table tennis champion Marty Reisman, that's where most of the similarities between reality and fiction end, with Safdie concocting a heightened version of the actual person and using the period setting as his primary inspiration. Ironically enough, the very idea of a scripted corporate sponsored exhibition match might be the film's timeliest aspect considering how often these pre-determined corporate sports events are still held, sadly demonstrating the almighty dollar's ability to override the thrill of competition. 

Marty's discomfort with throwing a match for money and his undeterred tenacity could be seen as the aspiring champ's only redeeming qualities. It's just too bad he keeps using every friend and family member who helps him, whether that's his uncle, mother (Fran Drescher), girlfriend or even total strangers he encounters along the way. And yet despite sleeping with Rockwell's morose, frustrated wife and insulting his late son, he still manages to come across as the ultimate underdog in comparison since their power dynamic is so severely unbalanced. 

Under different circumstances, Rockwell could be considered a somewhat sympathetic character for putting up with Marty, but since he's played by Shark Tank's "Mr. Wonderful" Kevin O' Leary in his acting debut, there's little chance of that. Safdie transposing TV's most recognizably greedy capitalist into the 1950's is a masterstroke, mainly because he's unsurprisingly great at adapting his own outsized persona into such an environment. In actuality, O'Leary goes a few layers deeper, like when delivering Rockwell's metaphorical vampire speech, claiming to have met and destroyed countless Martys over his lifetime. We believe him, just as we recognize how the thought of working with the Japanese who killed his son hasn't ever entered his mind. It's just business.

Marty also knows a lot about compartmentalizing, having screwed and backstabbed to finance a trip that may not even happen unless the idea of consequences start sinking in. His worst behavior comes out in the film's exhilarating middle section when endless scheming unleashes a crazy chain of events involving a mobster (Abel Ferrrara), his missing dog, a gas station fire, a trigger happy farmer (Penn Jillette) and a thwarted venture with hapless friend Dion (Luke Manley) involving orange table tennis balls ("spheres'). And Safdie somehow manages to have it all converge, leading Marty to his lowest point, abandoning a very pregnant Rachel to follow his dream at the worst possible moment.

If Marty's no prize, neither is retired actress and Rockwell's trophy wife Kay, who fills the void of her monotonous, miserable existence with this younger man. While Paltrow's casting could have similarly come across as a stunt, she delivers some of her most memorable work following what's been a nearly seven-year acting hiatus. There's this cold sadness to Kay, who sleepwalks through life without so much as a smile until Marty briefly reignites in her a spark to perform again. It's a strictly physical relationship of convenience for both until they actually start spending time with each other and realize just how bad an idea it is. Or at least she does. 

If O' Leary proves how often non-actors can add dimensions of authenticity, this also extends to the smaller supporting roles and cameos Safdie uses to fill the corners of his world. Hardly a scene passes where there isn't some recognizable face, even when it takes a minute to place them. Whether it's Ferrara, Jillette, Tyler, the Creator, internet personality Manley, fashion designer Isaac Mizrahi, writer/director David Mamet, "Man on Wire" Phillip Petite, billionaire businessman John Catsimatidis or "The Man with the Golden Voice" Ted Williams, their presence helps make everything feel a little more real. Far from a distraction, it further draws us in, while Jack Fisk's production design and Miyako Bellizzi's costuming handle much of the heavy lifting. 

Though he's constantly scrapping by, we're given fleeting glimpses of Marty's loyalty buried beneath the bravado. But even when he's right, he still manages to express himself so arrogantly that no reasonable person would bother sticking around to listen. These are only a few of the contradictions a brilliant Chalamet brings to a character audiences won't necessarily like, but find complicated and complex enough to warrant redemption. Since there are numerous ways to read the ending, it's not entirely clear whether he gets it, leaving us with something that might appear to resemble a smidgen of growth, depending on your interpretation.   

Being recognized as champion is Marty's answer to everything, even if he can't help but let his pride and insecurity get in the way. No one wants to willingly help an abrasive jerk so he manipulates whoever he encounters, constantly failing upwards to reach the next level. But over the course of the story you sense he's resorting to those tactics out of pure survival instincts rather than any calculated plan. It's just who he is. And since having heroic protagonists shouldn't be a prerequisite, a certain comfort comes from knowing Marty won't ever be mistaken for one, making his twisted, energetic journey that much more exciting.

2026 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Earlier today, actors Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman announced the 98th Academy Award nominations live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. And yes, the Oscars are still airing on ABC, at least until 2029 when YouTube obtains exclusive global streaming rights to the show, signaling the end of an era. This means all those complaints about how low the ratings have sunk will come to an end as the Academy makes a move that can't help but feel a decade late. And while it remains to be seen exactly how this will entice more viewers to watch a three and a half hour telecast or solve its formatting issues, it's a start. 

Until then, get ready for more business as usual. Regardless of how or where it airs, the Oscars do still represent the apex of the movie year for many hardcore cinephiles eagerly anticipating which of their favorite films made the cut. And for the directors, actors, producers, writers and crew all directly involved, the stakes couldn't be higher. On the bright side, there's good reason to be excited about the addition of the first new category in 25 years with "Achievement in Casting." It's a long time coming, even if voters went the predictable route of just cutting and pasting the top films into it. 

The morning's huge winner was Ryan Coogler's Sinners, which overperformed with a record-breaking 16 nominations, besting the 14 nod mark set by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land. And as predicted, One Battle After Another fared extremely well with 13, even if it may not be as solid a lock for the big prize as we originally assumed. Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein also cleaned up with 9, dominating the technical categories while also appearing in slots few expected. So now we'll see how much momentum all these films can retain heading into the Conan O' Brien hosted ceremony on Sunday, March 15th. But for now, here's look at all the morning's big surprises and snubs, along with my analysis. The full nomination list can be viewed at Oscars.org. 

-Sorry, but 16 nominations seems a little excessive for any film, and that's coming from someone who likes Sinners a lot. But what can you say? The movie just struck a chord with voters and possessed all the necessary components to cover a large swath of categories. The big shock was acting though. Very few even mentioned Delroy Lindo or Wunmi Mosaku as possibilities in the supporting categories, but here we are. Paul Thomas Anderson might be feeling a little more worried now. Can a vampire movie win Best Picture? We're about to find out. 

-Speaking of One Battle After After Another, there's no planet where 13 nods would ever feel like a disappointment. That said, Sinners definitely took some wind out of its sails, but as we know, a high nomination tally doesn't always equal the most wins, especially for a genre film. The more alarming development is Chase Infiniti missing Best Actress. This is what happens when a studio runs someone in the wrong category. Had they pushed her for Supporting, she'd be an Oscar winner. 

-The blockbuster Best Picture slot went to F1, as some had correctly predicted. The absences of Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good are glaring, especially since it would be quicker to name all the movies that didn't get in with such a massive field. The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value were the two chosen international entries to make the cut, but also had great showings elsewhere, joining Train Dreams in a contingent of tiny movies that could. Bugonia (!), Frankenstein, Hamnet and Marty Supreme rounded out the rest of the field.

-Aside from Amy Madigan's expected supporting nomination, Weapons drew blanks. And that's kind of surprising when you consider how much credit it's shared with Sinners for revitalizing Warner Bros., which was dead to rights before those two films emerged as runaway hits and primed the studio for a sale. But it looks like voters could only find room in their hearts for one horror entry. Knowing their history, it's a miracle they were even able to do that. 

-Zhao, Safdie, PTA, Trier and Coogler made the cut for Director and it's hard to call any of those a surprise. If you're not listed here your movie isn't winning Best Picture, which exposes the fallacy of an expanded ten nominee category. Del Toro's conspicuous by his absence, but with the amount of love Frankenstein's already received, it's hard to muster up too much sympathy. He'll be back. 

-Best Actor is the only category that went EXACTLY as expected, even if I'd like to see Bugonia's Jesse Plemons recognized. But with Chalamet, DiCaprio, Hawke, Jordan and Moura, it's tough to determine who voters would have picked for him to replace. But this is still Chalamet's to lose, with Michael B. Jordan suddenly finding himself in a better spot after what Sinners just pulled off.

-Kate Hudson: 2-time Oscar nominee. It's strange even typing that when you evaluate the actress's 25 year trajectory since being nominated for playing Penny Lane in Almost Famous, a role that should have launched her career into the stratosphere. But she lost and it didn't, only now returning to her roots with a comeback performance in Song Sung Blue, another musically themed picture. But the better news is that she didn't take Emma Stone's well deserved spot for Bugonia (which also nabbed Score and Screenplay nods). Both actressess join If I Had Legs I'd Kick You's Rose Byrne, Sentimental Value's Renate Reinsve and likely winner Jessie Buckley for Hamnet. The big omission was OBAA's Infiniti, and to a far lesser extent, Wicked: For Good's Cythia Erivo and longshot Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee.

- The OBAA combo of Penn and del Toro were always Supporting Actor locks, joining Frankenstein's Jacob Elordi, Sentimental Value's Stellan Skarsgård and Sinners' Delroy Lindo. This category mostly went according to plan, save Paul Mescal's snub for Hamnet and the surprise nod for Lindo, who joined Hudson and Mosaku in providing the auditorium with its biggest gasps and applause of the morning. 

-The Norwegian drama Sentimental Value scored big in the Supporting Actress category as both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lleaas get in, bringing that film's acting nomination total to four. This and its strong showing across the board make it one of the more notable, under-the-radar success stories of the season. OBAA's Teyana Taylor still has to be considered the frontrunner as Weapons' underwhelming haul might create an uphill battle for Amy Madigan. While Winmi Mosaku's inclusion is a shocker, it makes sense in hindsight, especially seeing how Sinners dominated.

-The casting category is already perplexing in its initial year. Who's to say even the greatest films necessarily represent a huge achievement in casting? Can't bad movies be well cast? Despite having never voted on this award before, the Academy somehow found a way to compile a list that feels like more of the same. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, OBAA, The Secret Agent, Sinners. It's strong casting all around, but they just cherry picked all the Best Picture nominees. 

-As for the technical races, I would have been thrilled to see James Price's imperative production design for Bugonia and Tron: Ares' visual effects (along with that Nine Inch Nails score) recognized, but it just wasn't meant to be. And in the case of the latter, it felt like the longest of long shots. But it was great to see The Lost Bus acknowledged for its tremendous effects, along with a Best Makeup nomination for The Smashing Machine, which strangely ended up having no worse a morning than Weapons did.