2023 Oscar Predictions

You hear it all the time. "If so and so wins Best Picture, it's the end of the Oscars." For whatever reason, statements like that seem to have become more prevalent in the past five years, regardless of what's favored to win. But if we can be certain about anything, it's that the Academy Awards have been around for almost a century and will continue to air somewhere no matter how many people complain or the depths to which the telecast's viewership numbers sink. So if frontrunner Everything, Everywhere All at Once has drawn the ire of those deeming it unworthy of 11 nominations, it's important to remember how often we've been down this road, and will be again.

The Oscars will be fine and no one should be spiraling into madness over something they emphatically claim to care nothing about. But that's the catch, isn't it? We do care because it's good to see quality work recognized and rewarded, even while sometimes vehemently disagreeing with the Academy's definition of that. Yes, the telecast itself is often a slog, with too many Best Picture nominees, show catastrophes like on stage assaults, wrong winners being read and favorites getting snubbed, but it's still the Oscars and that always counts for something. Plus it looks like we'll actually have a host this year.

As nice as it would be nice for the actual movies to make headlines for a change, I don't subscribe to the theory that films should rack up trophies for getting people into theaters again or "saving the moviegoing experience." If an insanely popular title like Top Gun: Maverick was to win the big prize, it should do so on creative merit, but we know how this works by now, as a vote can often say more about the tastes and proclivities of who's casting it than the movie itself. The good news is that the Academy rarely nominates garbage, clearing an admittedly low bar other awards bodies frequently don't.

With a much harder field to predict than usual, replicating my 23/24 score from last year feels like an impossibility with this many key races still up in the air, especially Best Actor and Supporting Actress,  which are close enough to be decided by a coin flip. It's worth noting this is the first year in some time (maybe ever) that I've seen the majority of films and performances nominated. That still may not help, but it's nice to be able to chime in with a "should win" for a change. Below are the predictions, along with some depth analysis for the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to change any picks until the start of the show.  

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Tár (Monika Willi)

BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
Elvis (Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Bev Dunn)
Babylon (Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole)
The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth Carter)
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams) 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems)
"Hold My Hand," Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga & BloodPop)
"Naatu Naatu," RRR (M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose)
"Applause," Tell It Like a Woman (Diane Warren)
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (Ryan Lott, David Byrne & Mitski) 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front 
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Livng (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig & Justin Marks)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley) 

Both All Quiet and Top Gun are action oriented, director-driven vehicles more powered by action and visuals than words. Still, the nine nominations accumulated by the former means it can't completely be discounted from pulling off an upset. Glass Onion is a further reach, as Rian Johnson's admittedly well constructed script just doesn't have enough heft or consensus appeal to make it a threat here, especially against these heavier hitting nominees.Voters would go for Living, if only anyone noticed or remembered it's been nominated. So in a surprisingly thin field, it's not hard to see how Sarah Polley's Women Talking would have the edge given the source material's literary pedigree its surprise Best Picture nod. I'll consider this a make-up win for Polley, whose best film, the unnominated Take This Waltz, deserved to clean up over a decade ago.  

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tár (Todd Field)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

This one's far more interesting and competitive, as the category's stacked with all Best Picture nominees. You'd figure this would favor EEAAO, and it does, but none of the others can be counted out, except maybe Triangle of Sadness. Banshees could take this since McDonagh is a stalwart here, having previously earned nominations for In Bruges and Three Billboards, but there's this nagging feeling the film may have peaked too early. Tár is foremost a directing and acting achievement while The Fabelmans could earn serious points for Kushner and Spielberg's ability to shape and mold the latter's life into a cohesive screenplay that does the legendary director's early life justice. But we know where all the momentum is and should brace ourselves for this being one of many EEAAO wins.        

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

What was that about a coin toss? In a category that always carries some degree of unpredictability each year, this race is unusually tight. Whenever it's down to two, there's a good chance anything can happen, including a splitting of votes that allows a deserving underdog like Banshees' Kerry Condon to sneak in, especially given her recent BAFTA victory. And while the temptation's there to dismiss The Whale's Hong Chau, anything's possible. Unfortunately, my preferred choice of Stephanie Hsu seems unlikelier, which is a shame since a strong argument can be made she's the heart and soul of EEAAO rather than co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, who steps way outside the box as quirky IRS auditor Dierdre Beaubierdre. 

Fresh off a SAG win, Curtis has momentum, industry wide likeability and would give a terrific speech that gets people talking the next day. But if it's a career award then Angela Bassett seems just as worthy for her role as Queen Ramonda in Wakanda Forever, making her the first Oscar winner in an MCU film. You could even argue she should already have a trophy for either What's Love Got To Do With It or Strange Days. What this may come down to is a test of EEAAO's potential dominance and an early test of how smitten voters really are with it. Either Curtis carried by the tide or respect for Bassett wins out. Almost too close to call.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

The only true lock of the night. All these performances are impressive but there's only one actor here everyone's rooting for. This goes for critics, viewers, voters and probably even a few of his fellow nominees in this category. Watching Ke Huy Quan rush the stage to accept his Oscar go down as one of those special awards moments played on endless repeat for years to come. The only thing capable of topping it should be the speech, since there's little doubt The Goonies and Temple of Doom star will be thanking a certain nominated director sitting in the front row. It says a lot that even those who don't care for EEAAO still agree he's the best part of the film and completely deserves this.

Kerry Condon is more likely to nab supporting honors for Banshees than either Gleeson or Keoghan, who will probably cancel each other out. In a different era, Judd Hirsch would win for sentimental reasons, but as memorable as his Fabelmans performance is, many believe the role is just too small for him to upset. And for my money, David Lynch was even better in the film, with even less screen time. Bryan Tyree Henry's surprise inclusion for Causeway will be looked at as reward enough. No one other than Quan has a shot.  

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

A two-horse race if there ever was one. We've gotten to the point where the backlash to the backlash regarding Andrea Riseborough's unusual campaign has actually improved her chances, but there's a big difference in getting the necessary number of votes to be nominated and having enough to actually win. My hunch is she'll fall short, despite giving a career best performance in To Leslie deserving of the attention it's gotten. That Ana de Armas defied the odds in getting nominated for her fearless Marilyn Monroe portrayal in the widely reviled Blonde speaks to her talent and the fact she'll probably be here again. It's not "category fraud" if you place yourself in a tougher race, which is what Michelle Williams did, possibly costing herself a supporting trophy. It's looking like we'll have to wait a little longer to see the five-time nominee referred to as an Academy Award winner, a designation she's deserved for a while now.  

Even while trading precursor wins with EEAAO's Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett was still thought to have this in the bag for her complex tour de force as icy classical conductor Lydia Tár. It's a career high performance made for Oscar, but Yeoh has suddenly surged and now the only question left is if voters think two-time winner Blanchett's been honored enough and are willing to overlook one of the more acclaimed acting turns of recent times by the industry's most respected actress. But it looks like that's exactly what could happen, as the Academy has a chance to anoint a long underappreciated talent in a movie most voters seem to really love. A Blanchett loss may not age that well, but then again, few could claim Yeoh isn't at the least the next strongest choice.   

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

It's really hard not to get flashbacks to 2014 Oscars when Michael Keaton's likely comeback win for Birdman was derailed by eventual victor Eddie Redmayne, who reaped the benefits of playing real life figure Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. It's almost become a long running joke how heavily the Academy favors biographical performances, with Rami Malek's take on Freddie Mercury being the most recent example. This could spell trouble for The Whale's Brendan Fraser considering Austin Butler not only physically transforms himself into the King of Rock and Roll, but actually does a lot of his own singing, a rarity in the musical biopic genre. And despite a recent SAG win and continued momentum, it's possible voters feel honoring one comeback is enough with Fraser's Encino Man co-star Ke Huy Quan. 

Working against Butler is that he'd be one of the youngest winners ever and Fraser's empathic performance as the lonely, morbidly obese Charlie is as undeniable as the actor's personal story. This is the tightest race, making the remaining contenders an afterthought. Farrell's heat is gone, Paul Mescal's turn and film feel too small for the win and Living's Bill Nighy might be the least visible nominee in years. As painful as it is to admit, the chances of them rewarding Fraser has dwindled slightly, making it entirely possible the Academy passes over my favorite male performance of 2022 to fall back on their old habits. Butler's great in a film seen and liked by far more, and has a Best Picture nomination, even if it's still difficult to envision him onstage knowing how the Oscars favor experience over youth. Still, The Whale's lack of prominence or broad support in other categories is a red flag. This is close enough to result in a historic tie, but no one's crazy enough to predict that.              

BEST DIRECTOR
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Todd Field (Tár)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

That fleeting period when this race seemed up in the air ended, since becoming an inevitability that the Daniels will bring it home. Is an upset possible? Sure, but this is one of the few categories you can comfortably check off without a second thought because it just makes sense. EEAAO is the movie voters like the most and a lot of that can be attributed their direction. Plus, they just won the DGA and have been front and center this whole time, likably promoting the film as if their lives depended on it.

The Daniels somehow losing would be a shock because there's just no reasonable alternative, save for maybe Spielberg, due to his legacy and the fact that The Fabelmans is his best in a long time. Five years ago he'd probably win, but the landscape has drastically changed and a bigger audience for it could have helped. If we're technically talking about the best directed effort then Todd Field triumphs, but it's hard to remember the last time the Academy rewarded that. It's a miracle Triangle of Sadness's Ruben Östlund got in and McDonagh has a better chance at Banshees love in the screenplay category. Mark another one down for EEAAO, as Picture and Director are shaping up to match again.        

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The year's sleeper, All Quite on the Western Front, has made up a lot of ground, but it winning would be an unprecedented upset at the level of Crash or Moonlight considering how it lacks both directing and editing nods. Avatar: The Way of Water is here because there are ten slots, it's just good enough and made a lot of money. Aside from a strong showing at the BAFTAs, Banshees has been losing steam over the past month, making a victory in any major race a real long shot. If vote tallies were ever revealed to the public, we'd probably all be surprised just how well Elvis did, but it's still all about Butler's performance. 

In another decade The Fabelmans wins Best Picture, as it's just the kind of traditionally well made, coming-of-age story that voters always drooled over. While that's not as true now, it's still one of Spielberg's weirder, more strangely compelling recent works and I'm glad we got it. Tár is brilliant, but a critic's film, too cold and complex for Academy tastes. Top Gun: Maverick is its polar exact opposite, a crowd thrilling spectacle done right that raked in tons of money for the industry, but even its biggest boosters admit it's a superb fast food meal you don't give a second thought to after the credits roll.

Triangle of Sadness would be this year's head-scratching inclusion if not for the presence of Women Talking, which takes a spot that could have belonged to Babylon, The Whale or any other number of films I loved this year that everyone else despised. With PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA guild wins, it's pretty much a cakewalk for EEAAO, which should successfully convert on a decent amount of its 11 nominations, driving the film's most vocal opponents up the wall. They'll be in for a long night.             

The Banshees of Inisherin

Director: Martin McDonagh
Starring: Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon, Barry Keoghan, Gary Lydon, Pat Shortt, Sheila Flitton, Bríd Ní Neachtain, Jon Kenny
Running Time: 114 min.
Rating: R 

★★★ ½ (out of ★★★★)

Put simply, Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin charts the sudden disintegration of an adult male friendship. It's a fairly straightforward premise, if not for the fact that this topic is rarely explored on film to the extent it is here. Initially resembling what could be mistaken as a comedic feud between lifelong buddies, it takes a turn into darker territory, as its era and fictional remote island setting become a key component in understanding where they're each coming from. You feel for the protagonist, a kind, likably dim man who wakes up one morning to discover his world's been turned upside down. But the same could also be said for his new enemy, who's struggling with some kind of existential crisis. What exactly this crisis entails hardly matters since the relentless pursuit of an answer only causes more trouble and hurt than either can handle.

There's something so bracingly honest and relatable about how McDonagh presents this, fully acknowledging the isle's inhabitants lead what appear to be dull lives, characterized by routines that do provide a certain amount of joy and relief in the face of a war reaching its end. For one of them, the shattering of their routine will prove catastrophic, while another searches for meaning that may not exist. It's anyone's right to end a friendship and certainly frustrating when the rejected party won't take a hint, but what eventually happens in the film suggests far deeper issues are at play. But it isn't until one of them goes off the deep end that you start considering what this was really all about.

It's 1921 with the Irish Civil War nearing its close when on the isle of Inisherin the amiable Pádraic Súilleabháin (Farrell) plans to meet his best friend and drinking buddy Colm Doherty (Gleeson) at the pub, as he does each day at 2 pm. But after being stood up and Pádraic discovers him sitting alone in his cottage, Colm tells Pádraic he's sick of him, wishing to instead spend his remaining days composing and playing music rather than listen to his pal's incessant chatter and complaining. 

Despite Colm's firm insistence they go their separate ways, a disbelieving Pádraic grows increasingly agitated by his friend's devastating rejection. Even as Pádraic's sister Siobhán (Kerry Condon) and troubled local boy Dominic (Barry Keoghan) try to smooth things over, the feud escalates to alarming levels, with Colm taking drastic steps to ensure his ex-friend stays away. And when that doesn't work, the situation gets uglier and more personal, resulting in life altering consequences for all involved.

McDonagh's script is rich enough in detail and the performances so lived in that it's easy to imagine how things were between the former friends before this started. We also know as little about Colm's state of mind as Pádraic does. To some extent, Colm isn't completely sure either, only expressing frustration that his life's whittling away while he drinks at the pub and listens to his friend babble on about nothing. 

If Colm's solution is to cut Pádraic out so he can focus on his music, neither go as planned due to him underestimating his friend's emotional pain. You can see both sides, as Colm takes a variety of approaches to let this man down easy and spare his feelings after ignoring him fails. Still, Pádraic refuses to get the message, doubling down in his efforts to somehow change Colm's mind. One's unshakably stubborn while the other's sort of endearingly annoying, even as neither can quite come to terms with their own shortcomings, preferring to deflect blame rather than take a look in the mirror.

Gleeson plays Colm with solemn, matter-of-fact directness while Farrell's innocently naive loyalty and confusion wins you over in spite of the character's obvious faults. Condon does sublime work as Siobhán, who clearly loves her brother, but knows he won't give in, trying anything to keep the peace before both men pass the point of no return. The only stabilizing force left in Pádraic's life aside from his donkey Jenny, she's about to reach the end of her rope. As the wacky, troubled town youth Dominic, Keoghan provides much of the film's comic relief opposite Farrell, until the scene-stealing performance reveals the character as someone more troubled than his goofy prankster facade lets on.

McDonagh balances a lot, managing to invoke a lot of laughs from a screenplay drenched in tragedy, as the two main characters discover much of what happened didn't need to. Farrell and Gleeson (re-teaming for the first time since the director's 2008 debut feature In Bruges) are seamless together, each giving career high performances as friends with so little experience being mean that their attempts result in disaster.

There comes a point when Colm takes a series of actions that aren't just crazy and selfish, but fly in the face of what he claims to be doing this for. It's not about Pádraic so much as what his presence and carefree attitude represents for man who feels trapped, his dreams and goals slipping away by the day. But rather than provide relief, cutting ties with his best friend creates new problems that bring him no closer to solving the existing one. 

It's a testament to Farrell and Gleeson that you still sense a small amount of affection and camaraderie left between them even after the worst has seemingly occurred. There's even a tinge of regret in a last act that's surprisingly difficult to watch, as they clumsily lose control of their worst impulses. Where this goes after the credits roll is anyone's guess, but if the fitting final scene implies some kind of impasse has been reached, it's a tiny one, arriving entirely too late. As it turns out, these former friends were far more skilled at destroying themselves than each other.              

2023 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Announced earlier this morning from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills by actors Riz Ahmed and Allison Williams, the 95th Academy Award nominations (full list here) are now known. This means all the arguing and predicting can officially commence, leading into a telecast on March 12 that could have a lot riding on it. Or maybe not, depending upon who you ask. For those within the industry, as well as fans, journalists and critics following this closely, it's still a big deal. And the best thing about this year's reading of the nominees is that it actually felt like one, with a welcome return to the press conference format, as audible gasps and cheers could be heard when certain names were announced, or in some cases, left off. 

While doing this in a Zoom-style format these couple of years was clearly a necessity, the Academy was already tinkering with the nomination announcements pre-pandemic so it was especially gratifying to see it presented this way again. But beyond being handled well and going off without a hitch, it also gave some hope to awards prognosticators who filled out a scorecard since the first few categories mostly played out as expected. All that changed once some of the bigger categories were announced, many of which contained a fair share of subs and surprises.  

Everything Everywhere All At Once, led with 11 nods, possibly shutting down the talk of it being too polarizing for older Academy members. Whether this large contingent of supporters will translate into enough votes to win the big prize another story, especially with The Banshees of Inisherin and Netflix's All Quiet on the Western Front nipping at its heels with 9 nominations each. While I still contend that  10 Best Picture nominees is too many and waters down the entire field, voters again made it apparent they're not necessarily interested in using these slots to assemble an incredibly eclectic group of nominees or veer too far from what they've always done. There are always exceptions, but for the most part, Oscar voters like what they like and have specific tastes that  heavily deviate from critics and audiences. And as we've seen in recent years, this can create challenges for the actual telecast, both in terms of ratings and actual entertainment value. Let's see how they did this time.

-The first notable surprise was probably Causeway's Brian Tyree Henry in Supporting Actor. That he ended up beating out The Fabelmans'  Paul Dano and The Good Nurse's Eddie Redmayne for the fifth slot isn't nothing. And anyone who thought Judd Hirsch wasn't making it in for The Fabelmans doesn't know the Academy, as there was no chance the 87 year-old veteran actor would be excluded, regardless of the screen time issue. Banchees' Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan predictably round out the category while it's now frontrunner Ke Huy Quan's to lose for Everything Everywhere.

-The presence of both Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress for Everything Everywhere is revealing. It indicates a lot of goodwill for the film, especially considering as recently as a couple of weeks ago many seemed sure Hsu would be left out. That they justifiably recognized her performance as essential is yet another box checked in its favor. But it's Angela Bassett who's suddenly emerged as the favorite for Wakanda: Forever, meaning Hong Chau (The Whale) and Kerry Condon (Banshees) have some catching up to do.

-The two big overperformers were All Quite on the Western Front and Triangle of Sadness, both nabbing Picture and Screenplay notices, plus a surprise directing nomination for Triangle's Ruben Östlund. It's ironic that the former ended up being Netflix's awards pony considering they bet everything on Glass Onion, which disappointed with only a sole writing nod.  

-The biggest snub just might be Top Gun: Maverick's Claudio Miranda failing to get in for cinematography. He wasn't just merely expected to earn a nomination, but favored to win. It's an inexplicable exclusion for a blockbuster that's still expected to run the table when it comes to the technical categories (visual effects, sound and editing all within grasp). Still, not hearing his name may have been the morning's most perplexing moment. 

-Remember when the documentary category was the one of the most anticipated? Not to say the selected nominees aren't worthy, but it does seem as if this race is missing some of the luster it had in previous years. The same could be said for Animated Feature, which will more than likely be won by Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.

-Continuing their tradition of royally botching the Best Original Song category, voters awarded perennial runner-up Dianne Warren her 14th nomination for "Applause" from the anthology film Tell It Like a Woman. This while Taylor Swift is completely snubbed for "Carolina" (Where The Crawdads Sing) and LCD Soundsystem's brilliant "New Body Rhumba" from White Noise gets egregiously excluded. That one really stings. R.R.R receives its only recognition here, for "Naatu Naatu," as it's looking like a three-way race between that, Lady Gaga's "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun), Rihanna's "Lift Me Up" (Wakanda Forever) and Ryan Lott and David Byrne's "This is a Life" (EEAAO). In Original Score, 90-year-old John Williams earns his 53rd (!) nod for The Fabelmans. 

-The decision to push The Fabelman's Michelle Williams for lead instead of supporting just cost her a locked Oscar. On the bright side, she should already have two or three of them, so there's reason to believe the five-time nominee will get more shots at this. Going against both Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO) is an uphill battle, but the lead story here is Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. Whatever was done over the past couple of weeks worked, as sheer online will and word of mouth for an unsung, underseen performance got her in, sure to result in some interesting discussions about what it takes to get a nomination. 

-The attempts to tear down Blonde were only partially successful, with even the film's biggest detractors being forced to admit Ana de Armas' work was amazing, especially in the face of that controversial material and all the immense scrutiny playing Marilyn Monroe entails. Babylon being considered the financial flop of the year destroyed Margot Robbie's chances here and The Woman King just didn't have enough behind it to earn Viola Davis a nod. The Riseborough and de Armas surges most affected Danielle Deadwyler, who at one point seemed to be a lock for Till. Pearl's Mia Goth was a non-starter due to the Academy's long standing genre bias, but boy would it have been great if that materialized. 

-Despite the rapturous reception for Top Gun: Maverick, it was always hard to envision them nominating Cruise for this. It's just not the kind of performance AMPAS typically goes for, so they didn't. And whatever admiration exists for The Fabelmans just wasn't enough to carry star Gabriel LaBelle through. Instead, things shaped up mostly how we thought, with Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Bill Nighy (Living) taking the two indie underdog slots while Colin Farrell (Banshees), Austin Butler (Elvis) and comeback king Brendan Fraser (The Whale) battle it out. With Butler now overtaking Farrell and Fraser getting a second wind after overcoming some initially scathing reviews, this has suddenly turned into one of the more intriguing races. 

-Some snubs in the directing category include Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) S.S. Rajamouli (R.R.R.), Charlotte Wells (Aftersun) and Sarah Polley (Women Talking) even if it's tough to call anything a "snub" with five slots to the ten Best Picture contenders. Of the listed, Berger's exclusion might be the only real surprise given how well his film did across the board. Spielberg's still the favorite, even if you can't completely count out the Daniels (EEAAO), or even Martin McDonagh (Banshees) or Todd Field (Tár) given their pedigrees. Triangle's Östlund is the shock here, as few saw that coming.        

-Again, with 10 Best Picture nominees, it's hard to get bent out of shape about omissions. The Whale's mixed reception probably caught up with it and Babylon and R.R.R. were always reaches, as was Wakanda Forever. Taking their places were Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking, the latter of which was actually very poorly received in some circles, to the point it almost feels like filler. Top Gun: Maverick and the Avatar: The Way of Water are the blockbuster inclusions everyone's been clamoring for while Elvis continues to pick up steam. Whether The Fabelmans has enough to go all the way is questionable, but the same could also be said for the more critically adored Tár and Banshees of Inisherin. All Quite on the Western Front may have ascended from nothing to a serious threat overnight, but all eyes still remain on Everything Everywhere, which just further asserted its potential dominance on Oscar night.