2012 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Well, we have our 84th Annual Academy Award nominations as Academy President Tom Sherak and Oscar-nominated actress Jennifer Lawrence read them off early this morning (video above). And overall, I did pretty well with my predictions. Turns out I made the right call playing it safe, with only a few exceptions. You can read the entire list of nominees here. If one thing's for sure it's that I still have plenty of movies left to see and review. Here are some of the major talking points coming out of this morning's announcement:

-Obviously the huge shocker came last when the polarizing, 9/11 tearjerker "EXTREMELY LOUD & INCREDIBLY CLOSE" (sorry, that personal space invading title just begs to be written in all caps) was announced as the final Best Picture nominee. You could hear the gasps of shock and awe after it was read. And the funny thing is I had a strange feeling that could happen and wrestled with adjusting my predictions to include it, before wimping out. We all underestimated the Academy's penchant for embracing sentimentality. It knows no bounds. That combined with the movie peaking just as voters were filling out their ballots resulted caused this. While I haven't seen or reviewed it yet, I've heard it's also the kind of movie you love or hate. Apparently enough voters loved it and it even spread to the supporting Actor category with a surprise nod for Max Von Sydow.

-"War Horse" nominated for Best Picture. I'm glad I stuck with that prediction when everyone else seemed to abandon it. As usual, sentimentality and comfort rule the day for voters.

-Spielberg out for Best Director but Terrence Malick is in for "The Tree of Life", which also scored a surprise, but very welcome, Best Picture nomination. Didn't think voters would go for something this challenging but I'm glad they did. It was an achievement even they couldn't overlook. Justifiably praised to high heaven by critics, it's now officially gone the distance, picking up the two biggest nominations. Easily the best news of the morning.

-I knew David Fincher wouldn't be nominated for "Dragon Tattoo", nor would the actual picture. It's clear now they just don't like him. But I was wrong about Rooney Mara. Always on the radar but somewhat of a long shot, she made it in. Guess they wanted to reward the film somehow, so that makes sense.

-So, what was that I was saying yesterday about pronouncing Michel Hazanavicius? I wouldn't want to be in Tom Sherak's shoes reading some of those tongue-twisters. But on the other hand, he does get to present with Jennifer Lawrence, so there's that. And she was surprisingly skilled at pronouncing those names.   

-I guessed 7 Best Picture nominees. There were 9. And those extra two were shockers so I wasn't that far off the mark there.

-"Midnight in Paris": Best Picture nominee. Ugh.

-Woody Allen: Best Director: Ugh.

-"Bridemaids": Best Original Screenplay. Ugh.

-Surprise Best Actor nomination for Demian Bichir for "A Better Life." Who? What? We'll have to have a fight on Oscar night between him and "The Artist's" Jean Dujardin to determine who gets crowned this year's Roberto Benigni. I understand the desire to not only reward great work and bring attention to an actor and film no one's heard of, but I can't help but think nominations like the one for Bichir do more harm than good, causing people to not want to see the film and tune out of the Oscars altogether. While the performance may be deserving, I couldn't help but roll my eyes at the announcement, knowing fewer will care what happens in this category now.

-Two HUGE Supporting snubs: Albert Brooks in "Drive" and Shailene Woodley in "The Descendants." They were screwed big time. There's simply no other way to put it. Two of the best performances of the year don't get in. And now we can officially say it: The Academy hates "Drive." As for Woodley, they probably thought it was "too soon" or she "has time" because of her age so they just didn't vote for her.

-None of my "wish" nominations came to pass. Admittedly, all except a couple were the longest of long shots.

-I'm glad Nick Nolte got in for "Warrior." Same for Jonah Hill for "Moneyball." It's well deserved, even if it doesn't quite take the sting out of Brooks being overlooked.

-Only two Original Song nominees? Why even have the category? If "Man or Muppet" loses with one other nominee we should all riot.

-Thrilled to see J.C. Chandor's original script for "Margin Call" nominated.

-Overall, they could have done much worse. And as tough a time as I'm giving "Midnight in Paris," it is at least a good film. As much as we sometimes complain, the Academy rarely nominates anything of poor quality for Best Picture and this year seems to be no exception. Predictions coming before the big show on February 26th.

2012 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Haven't done this predicting thing in a few years so we'll find out when the nominations are announced tomorrow morning whether I'm an expert, lucky, a fool or maybe just something in between. I learned my lesson last year though when The King's Speech won Best Picture. I'm putting myself in the mindset of your average Academy voter and imagining what would be the safest, most unchallenging picks possible. That's how they think. If something else happens that's great, but I'm not getting my hopes up. Below are my predictions for what will be the nominations in the 8 major categories, along with one "wish" choice I highly doubt will come to pass. Here it goes....

Best Picture

"The Artist"

"The Descendants"

"Moneyball"

"Hugo"

"The Help"

"Midnight in Paris"

 "War Horse"

Comments: Unlike last year when there had to be 10 nominees, there can be anywhere from 5 to 10. I'm going with 7.And this is about as mundane a line-up as possible. I'd be surprised if they nominate "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo." Seems too edgy for their tastes, regardless of who directed it. Here's hoping I'm wrong and the average, insanely overpraised "Midnight in Paris" doesn't get in for either Picture, Director, or Screenplay. It probably will though. And yes, I really think they'll nominate "War Horse" despite it being a massive commercial and critical flop. I'd rather not consider the scary possibility "Bridesmaids" could sneak in here. But luckily I don't have to because it won't. They hate comedy.  

I Wish: "Drive" 

Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Steven Spielberg, "War Horse"

Comments: Here's hoping I'm wrong again and someone like David Fincher displaces Spielberg in this category but I won't hold my breath, especially considering how badly they screwed him over last year. I think Spielberg's in just for being Spielberg. Why do I have this strange feeling George Clooney could sneak in for "The Ides of March or that movie could be nominated for Best Picture?"And what a relief I only have to spell Hazanavicius' name and don't have to pronounce it.

I Wish: Nicolas Winding Refn, "Drive"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Juan Dujardin, "The Artist"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "J. Edgar"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Comments: Yes, I still think they're nominating DiCaprio. It's Leo in a biopic with old age make-up. They don't care if the movie's awful or not. Despite the push, Michael Fassbender probably won't get in for "Shame." It's NC-17 and about a sex addict. Consider it a victory if Academy voters even made it through the film without suffering heart attacks.

I Wish: Ryan Gosling, "Drive"

Best Actress

Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"

Viola Davis, "The Help"

Michelle Williams, "My Week with Marilyn"

Tilda Swinton, "We Have To Talk About Kevin"

Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs" 

Comments: If Kristen Wiig somehow, someway gets nominated for "Bridesmaids" it would rank among the most undeserving Best Actress nominations in Oscar history. And boy does that cover a lot of ground. It's just an okay comedic performance and nothing more. For some reason I just don't see Rooney Mara making it in for "Tattoo."  

I Wish: Charlize Theron, "Young Adult" (A long shot, but possible. Fingers crossed for the best performance of the year)

Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks, "Drive"

Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"

Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"

Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"

Nick Nolte, "Warrior" 

Comments: This is cut and dry. Hard to screw this up. If anyone's getting left out it could be Nolte. Or Hill. If so, it's hopefully to make room for Patton Oswalt who really, really deserves to be here. So does Brad Pitt for "The Tree of Life," but since he's already locked in as lead for "Moneyball" that won't be happening. But it should. It was arguably the better performance.

I Wish: Patton Oswalt, "Young Adult" 

Best Supporting Actress

Jessica Chastain, "The Help"

Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"

Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"

Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"

Comments: A surprise isn't out of the question here. Not enough to go out on a limb with anyone else though. That's the line-up. Of the 50 films in which she appeared this year, it looks like Jessica Chastain's getting in for "The Help." And here's the only category "Bridesmaids" actually deserves to be nominated in.

I Wish: Elle Fanning, "Super 8", Judy Greer,"The Descendants" (Unfortunately no chance for either)

Best Original Screenplay 
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"

Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"

Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumulo, "Bridesmaids"

Tom McCarthy, "Win Win"

Will Reiser, "50/50" 

Comments: I've already expressed my displeasure at the underwhelming "Midnight in Paris" being here. And not to beat a dead horse, but the likely inclusion of "Bridesmaids" in this category is even worse. Especially, if it's at the expense of the strongest screenplay of the year, Diablo Cody's "Young Adult." It's embarrassing if those two get in and that doesn't.  

I Wish: Diablo Cody, "Young Adult"

Best Adapted Screenplay

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, "The Descendants"

Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillan, "Moneyball"

John Logan, "Hugo"

Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"

Tate Taylor, "The Help"

Comments: There's really nothing else worth considering, with one exception. But I don't think that's making it in. This category is locked and probably the easiest to predict. It was a really good year for adapted screenplays and this list reflects that.

I Wish: Hossein Amini, "Drive"