My Top 10 Films of 2008

*Note: The following is part of the continuing "10 FOR 10" series in celebration of ten years of Jeremy The Critic, in which my choices for the top 10 films of each year from 2006-2015 are revealed. Don't forget to check out my previous posts for 2006 and 2007. This installment will be focusing on 2008. Just a reminder that movies must have a U.S. release date of that particular year in order to qualify.

                                                                       2008

It's time to put 2008 to bed. If forced to rank, I'd probably name this the second weakest year covered in this series behind 2006. Like '07, I did compile a belated Top 10 list for this year, but very much unlike 07, a disappointed resignation accompanied my choices as I bemoaned their many flaws. Eight years later, few will be shocked at the films that made it, but may be taken aback somewhat at the order, which has changed considerably with time.

The Dark Knight, already an iffy choice for the top spot, loses that position here, dropping to a still respectable number 3. Let's face it: It has issues and the overabundance of superhero movies since has either hurt or helped its cause depending on whether you'd classify it as one. If nothing else, it'll always be remembered for Heath Ledger's posthumous Oscar-winning performance, which far surpasses the film it's in, which is still groundbreaking in many ways, arguably representing the high-water mark for director Christopher Nolan. But count me among the very few who prefer its sequel, The Dark Knight Rises.

Time has been kinder than expected to Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire, in hindsight one of the wiser Academy choices compared to what we've gotten since. Every time it comes on, it's tough to look away. Gran Torino holds steady as possibly the best late-era Eastwood entry while WALL-E becomes the first animated feature to make one of my lists, with few Pixar films measuring up to it since. Its existence as a weird political timepiece/character study and the great work from Josh Brolin and the entire cast surprisingly allows secures Oliver Stone's W. to sneak in.

David Fincher pops up again with Benjamin Button, but even with its incredible final hour I'd still have problems defending it as one of his stronger career efforts, much less worthy of the top spot. Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon are both so ridiculously underrated that I actually contemplated sliding them into the top two slots just to make a point. I resisted because neither really get over that hump that takes it to the next level. Still, I'd contend both are near-flawless, representing the best the decade has to offer (especially the latter, which grows more exciting on each rewatch). Roger Ebert's favorite film of the decade, Synecdoche, New York, is certainly challenging and ambitious enough to take top honors, but could I sit down and easily watch it right now? Probably not, as I'd have to be in the right frame of mind, but its standing here may as well be a vote of supreme respect for what director Charlie Kaufman and the late Philip Seymour Hoffman (in maybe his greatest role) accomplish.

But almost by process of elimination, it's The Wrestler for the win, a movie that's proven to hold the highest rewatch value for me despite its depressing subject matter and the fact that I initially thought Aronofsky's film arrived too late to open enough eyes to what actually goes on within the pro wrestling world. History has proven that theory wrong and as much as Mickey Rourke's tried (and largely succeeded) at squandering the goodwill of his comeback, there's no taking this performance away. It probably wouldn't my top ten or fifteen films of the decade, but doesn't need to. It just needed to be the best of 2008. Some runners-up that didn't make the list include In Bruges and Pineapple Express (both of which made my previous one) Wendy and Lucy, Son of Rambow, Rachel Gettting Married and The Visitor. Next up is 2009, where my crutch of referencing a previous list to inform these rankings falls by the wayside. From here on, the results get a bit crazier and more unpredictable.        


10. W.

"Stone paints (Bush) as an underachiever, full of self-doubt and burdened by expectations. In doing that, he sets the stage for the film’s most frightening realization: He’s just like us. And whether we want to admit it or not, there’s no guarantee we could have done a better job in the White House under similar circumstances. But more importantly, in being the first biopic to centered around a current sitting President’s legacy, we’re robbed of time, distance and historical context in examining the film, making for a fascinating character study." - 10/24/08


9. Gran Torino

"A lot of viewers had major problems with Eastwood treating racism and xenophobia as punch lines, which is completely missing the point. There are old, bitter bigots like Walt who toss around ethnic jabs for fun every day. And they think they're a riot. What Eastwood taps into with his performance (which if you look closer is a whole lot more than just growls and sneers) is that people like this are funny, just not in the way they believe themselves to be." - 5/22/09


8. WALL-E

"It helps that WALL-E, part Charlie Chaplin, part R2D2, is the most adorable onscreen creation since E.T. All the details of his personality and how they’re conveyed onscreen are amazing, like when he shakes uncontrollably and collapses himself into a box to hide when he’s frightened. We recognize his quirks, relate and empathize with him as if he were real, and the story becomes that much more involving because of it." - 7/10/08


7. Slumdog Millionaire

"The flashbacks span years with three different actors playing the characters at various points, tragic circumstances eventually separating them, until all paths lead to the moment Jamal appears on the show. As we’re given each question we’re also given the accompanying story behind it. They range from “Who invented the revolver?” to “Which historical figure is on the $100 bill?” The film constantly astonishes in how the answers show up in his life. One early query involving a Bollywood star, has a payoff that’s both touching, disgusting and hysterical all at the same time. We know the ending but it doesn’t matter. What matters is how Jamal gets to it, and that’s what kept my mouth open in amazement the entire time." - 12/19/08


6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

"An accident befalls a character and Fincher flashes back, showing us all the little, seemingly meaningless events that had to fall perfectly into place for that event to occur. Had one of those tiny circumstances not happened, there's no accident and the paths of those involved would have been considerably altered. Life is a series of windows, opening and closing at very specific times, which can be a source of both joy and unbearable sadness. We have control over it…and we don’t. That’s life, and this film is rich with every little detail of it." - 2/20/09


5. Frost/Nixon

"After a while we realize that Nixon’s obsession with “beating” Frost has more to do with him actually wanting to be him. Beyond simply being jealous of his youth and success, in Frost he sees the man he could have been if only he had the people skills. His fixation on every detail of the interviewer's life, from his shoes to his girlfriend, suggest what in Nixon’s personality really caused the Watergate break-in and why he so sloppily covered it up. For Nixon, he and Frost are really two sides of the same coin. Both have accomplished much in their given fields, with neither being taken seriously or respected in the slightest." - 2/12/09


4. Revolutionary Road

"Fans of Titanic who waited over a decade to see the re-teaming of Kate and Leo will probably want to hang themselves by the time the final credits roll. This is not an epic romance, or even a romance at all. Despite the fact it was misleadingly marketed as Titanic 2, there isn't a single romantic element in it. It's closer to a horror movie. Think Pleasantville meets Rosemary's Baby with a side helping of Mad Men thrown in for good measure." - 6/7/09


3. The Dark Knight

"While played by Ledger as a sick hybrid of Clockwork Orange's Alex and Sid Vicious of The Sex Pistols, the Joker still bares no resemblance to any villain previously committed to film. It's truly the definitive portrayal of this iconic character, with the actor making Cesar Romero and even Jack Nicholson look like clowns hired for a children's birthday party. Every moment he's on screen is pure terror and Nolan is smart enough to know the right dose of screen time to give him." - 7/20/08


2. Synecdoche, New York

"Watching, you might be reminded of more films exploring similar themes of mortality, human existence, forgiveness, love, and regret in very unconventional ways. But none like this. My mind immediately turned, in either method or execution, to pictures like Vanilla Sky, Magnolia, Adaptation, Stranger Than Fiction and I Heart Huckabees.  It shares its dark humor with Huckabees, as well a similarly whimsical John Brion score, but  Like Nicolas Cage's Kaufman doppelganger in Adaptation, Caden seems to represent the filmmakers' perception of himself and his failures.  This introduces an intriguing question. Can you criticize Kaufman for self-indulgence when the film is actually ABOUT a director's self-indulgence and how it destroys him?" - 3/11/09


1. The Wrestler

" This isn’t a feel-good movie about redemption, overcoming the odds or even winning the big match. If pushed for comparisons, it comes closest in tone to the gritty Raging Bull, digging so deep and pulling so few punches that the professional wrestling industry as a whole had no choice but to disown it. The accolades and superlatives for that accomplishment belong to Aronofsky, and especially Mickey Rourke, drawing on a well-documented lifetime of pain and suffering to give a performance for the ages." - 1/25/09

Top 10 Films of 2008
1. The Wrestler (dir. Darren Aronofsky)
2. Synecdoche, New York (dir. Charlie Kaufman)
3. The Dark Knight (dir. Christopher Nolan)
4. Revolutionary Road (dir. Sam Mendes)
5. Frost/Nixon (dir. Ron Howard)
6. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (dir. David Fincher)
7. Slumdog Millionaire (dir. Dannny Boyle)
8. WALL-E (dir. Andrew Stanton)
9. Gran Torino (dir. Clint Eastwood)
10. W. (dir. Oliver Stone)

Revolutionary Road

Director: Sam Mendes
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Kate Winslet, Michael Shannon, Kathy Bates, David Harbour, Kathryn Hahn, Dylan Baker
Running Time: 118 min.
Rating: R

★★★ 1/2 (out of ★★★★)

There's nothing worse than waking up and discovering you've turned into your parents. If you have, you consider yourself a failure while the rest of society thinks you're a success. If you haven't, you consider yourself a success while the rest of society labels you a failure. Chalk it up as a no-win. That's the dilemma facing Frank Wheeler (Leonardo DiCaprio) in Sam Mendes' trying but almost brilliant Revolutionary Road. Adapted from Richard Yates' acclaimed 1961 novel it does the unthinkable in actually bringing a different take to not only my absolute favorite genre of film, but one that's admittedly been explored to death. Just not from an angle like this.

For once we're presented with characters who are fully aware of the suburban hell they've trapped themselves in and are clawing and fighting to escape. But the harder they fight, the deeper they sink. Mendes skips the formalities with only a single scene depicting the first encounter between Frank and his future wife, April (Kate Winslet). They meet at a cocktail party and hit it off. He made her laugh. There isn't much laughing after that as minutes later we flash forward a few years and they're at each others throats. That trend continues throughout the duration of the picture, nearly suffocating us with their emotional intensity and marital discord.

Frank works in marketing at Knox Business Machines, following in the footsteps of his late father who was employed there for twenty years. He despises it. In an unforgettable shot we see him blend in amidst a sea of flannel suits and bowler hats in New York's bustling Grand Central Station. Everyone looks the same. Scratch that. They are the same. He celebrates his thirtieth birthday by sleeping with a young secretary whose primary appeal to him is that she's the only woman around naively impressed by anything he does. Frank and April, along with their two kids, have just moved into their new home on Revolutionary Road, located in a very wealthy Connecticut suburb because that's "just what you do."

While on the surface their lives resemble a Norman Rockwell painting, it's all a put-on. April comes up with a crazy idea for Frank to just quit his job so they can move to Paris where she'll support him with a high-paying government secretarial position while he gathers time to decide what he wants to do with the rest of his life. Their plan is pretty revolutionary for a time when society's expectations of gender roles in a marriage are very clearly defined. Equally important is keeping up with the Jones,' or rather the Campbells (David Harbour and Kathryn Hahn), who are sent into a tailspin by the Wheeler's news, causing them to examine issues they'd rather leave alone. The Paris move is set into motion until things are heavily complicated by a surprise pregnancy and a golden opportunity presented to Frank at work. That, and a visit from an unwelcome houseguest, causes their already shaky marriage to devastatingly fracture.

The 1950's have taken a beating in cinema as the decade of boredom, conformity and repression, leading us to ask: "Was it really THAT bad?" But the truth is that this film could have taken place during any decade and still have rang just as true. When the middling box office returns came in for this it wasn't exactly a surprise audiences weren't in the mood to hear or see a wealthy suburban couple whine and complain about their lives as we struggle through an economic recession. There's the temptation to avoid any movie that could possibly remind us of life's very problems, especially if it features characters this realistic...or even worse, "UNLIKABLE." As someone who feels Hollywood's been spoon feeding us false optimism in the past year it was a relief to see a film at least try to tackle serious life issues head-on and ask important, socially relevant questions.

You very often hear people these days utter the phrase "I'm lucky just to have a job." So true, but have you noticed it mostly seems to be uttered by people who hate their jobs? As if they feel guilty and are saying it to motivate themselves to keep going. That's Frank Wheeler. Similarly, when a woman is pregnant our first inclination is always to congratulate them but have you ever thought why? There's a tremendous amount of financial and emotional stress that comes with raising a child and some people just aren't built for it because they're too selfish or irresponsible. Maybe they're only having children because their biological clocks are ticking or all their friends are. April Wheeler falls into both categories. But what makes this couple differ from other spoiled characters who have populated cinema's suburban hell through the decades is that they know (or think they know) what's happening and are desperate to escape, completely unaware that changing everything around them won't necessarily do that.

Paris isn't a pipe dream, but April's IDEA of what moving there will do for them just might be. They come up with all the right questions but answer them all wrong by trying to alter every external detail in their lives without first working on themselves or their relationship, although any marriage that would require this much work might not be worth salvaging to begin with. This leads to the question of how much work should a marriage should take before throwing in the towel.  Unfortunately, doing that just wasn't a viable option for couples during this era. Divorce would have been even more frowned upon than just picking up and moving to Paris. When the Wheelers' gregarious Realtor friend Helen Givings (played to perfection by the great Kathy Bates) decides it would be a good experience for her mentally unstable son John (Michael Shannon), to meet the young couple I cringed, but hearing about Shannon's Oscar nominated supporting performance couldn't have really prepared me.

Shannon's John acts as kind of a bridge between the two halves of the film, popping in to call Frank and April out on their hypocrisy. A former mathematician on leave from the psychiatric hospital, he's ironically the only character who truly understands the problem and isn't afraid to say so...bluntly. When he feels betrayed by the Wheelers, he pushes them to their breaking point, leading to an electrifying confrontation that rivals the deli scene in The Wrestler as the scariest and most uncomfortable few minutes committed to film in 2008. Shannon occupies only minutes of screen time, but he's like a tornado ripping through the picture, leaving a wreckage of distress and shock that stays with the couple (and viewers) long after he departs. There's definitely no shame losing the Best Supporting Actor Oscar to Heath Ledger but the irony there is that Shannon basically comes in and plays his own twisted version of the Joker for two huge scenes. The similarities are eerie.

There's little point arguing whether Kate Winslet's Oscar winning performance in The Reader was more or less deserving of the statue than her work here. They're two completely different parts that call for entirely different performances, the former obviously being the flashier, more Academy-skewing role. It isn't difficult to see why they nominated her for that instead. Both are deserving, but I prefer her more understated, no less challenging turn here, which wouldn't have been possible without DiCaprio, who equals her in every way.

Winslet may be given more notes to hit but DiCaprio is even more impressive, inhabiting a man at war with himself, resentful of society's expectations of him, but too afraid to do anything about it. So he takes it out on his wife. For years DiCaprio has very deliberately made more mature choices as an actor but because of his youthful appearance it's been an uphill climb. None of that is due to of a lack of talent since he's given great performances each time out (with his work in The Departed and The Aviator topping the list), but rather a certain preconceived bias from audiences that he's "too young" for these types of roles. No one can say that about this, his most mature, fully realized performance. He becomes Frank Wheeler in 1950's suburban Connecticut. Just watch his face in the the scene when he returns home to find April and his kids surprising him for his birthday.

Fans of Titanic who waited over a decade to see the re-teaming of Kate and Leo will probably want to hang themselves by the time the final credits roll. This is not an epic romance, or even a romance at all. Despite the fact it was misleadingly marketed as Titanic 2, there isn't a single romantic element in it. It's closer to a horror movie. Think Pleasantville meets Rosemary's Baby with a side helping of Mad Men thrown in for good measure. I'm convinced the hate-filled scenes the two actors share wouldn't have been possible if they weren't really close friends (which they supposedly are) and a very high comfort level must have been there for them to go at each other like they do.

Director Sam Mendes explored this kind of material before with 1999's Best picture winner, American Beauty, but he isn't just repeating himself. This is a far different film, set in a different era and Justin Haythe's screenplay doesn't feel quite as calculated. That's not a knock on Beauty but rather an indictment that the two share anything other than the exploration of a crumbling marriage in the suburbs. Strangely enough, it also doesn't remind me of the most recent flag bearer for this type of movie, Todd Field's Little Children, even though they share an actress in Winslet and Field was originally attached to this project. That film seemed to have a more satirical slant and bite that this lacks, making the two different enough that this film doesn't suffer that greatly in comparison.

Technically, it's a flawless motion picture. There isn't a single wasted shot or moment. The best cinematographer working today, Roger Deakins, tops himself again by bringing the '50's to vivid life with dreamlike precision while the production and costume design is so authentic its frightening. Thomas Newman's subtle piano score comfortably fits the film like a glove. Even the film's most biggest detractors would have to concede it's a top notch production and better put together than any other recent adult drama. I'm curious if it'll hold up moving forward or go the way of just about every other supposedly great film of 2008 and lose its power on repeated viewings. It does seem like the kind of picture you respect and admire in terms of craftsmanship, but can't love because it keeps you at arm's length. We'll just have to see how time treats it and whether, like the similarly themed The Ice Storm, it experiences a critical resurgence down the line.

I understand why this movie failed commercially but am still in complete disbelief that it wasn't better received by critics or the Academy. It would seem tailor-made for them except for the fact that they made up their minds this past year that they'd rather not be challenged or pushed by mainstream entertainment. This isn't easy to watch and full appreciation requires almost full surrender into a state of total despair. Not an easy thing to do. You have to be a hardcore cynic or have a generally pessimistic view of human nature to enjoy it, and even then, I'm not sure the word "enjoy" applies. If you didn't like it, you should probably be relieved. That my favorite genre of film usually features characters who emotionally hurt one another scares me to no end, but it doesn't depress me. What really depressing is when movies insult our intelligence by chickening out.

When the film ended though I wasn't left with the feeling of hopelessness you'd expect after sitting through what's essentially less a movie than an ordeal. That's because of one well-placed, superbly performed scene before the finale hinting that maybe Frank and April finally "got it." Maybe the key for them was finding a healthy balance somewhere between the hope and despair and, at least for a brief, passing moment, they did. It may make everyone feel better about themselves to classify these these people as unlikable but the reality is more complicated. Take away the suburban setting. Place it in another decade. It doesn't really matter. The problems are universal, the story is timeless. Revolutionary Road offers up a new reason why we shouldn't turn into our parents: They may have been even more screwed up than us.

Which 5 Films Will Be Nominated For Best Picture?

Doesn’t it seem like just yesterday that we were making jokes about milkshakes and pregnant teenagers? Here we go again. You may have noticed those pesky “FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION” banner ads popping up all over the place. As tough as it is to believe the announcements of this year’s Academy Award nominations are just over 2 months away (January 22nd to be exact), which means we’re just now entering the prime time for some HUGE releases vying for the top prize. This will continue non-stop until that date so it’s best to get used to the titles you see below because you're sure to be hearing a lot about them everywhere.

Last year’s Oscar telecast was one of the lowest rated in the Academy’s history and while the show was stacked with critical favorites, the films failed to resonate with the casual moviegoing public. The result: a painfully boring show. Thankfully, this year’s show looks more promising with big stars like Pitt, Jolie, DiCaprio and Eastwood (Clooney’s sitting this one out) and big movies that people may actually go out and see. The quality may or may not be there like it was in 2007 but anyone who expected families to gather around the TV last year to see the Academy honor dark art house films featuring priests being bludgeoned to death with bowling pins and high-pressure air gun murders were out of their minds. Fantastic films, but I understand why many didn’t tune in. That doesn’t look like it will be an issue this year and if a certain suspected win occurs in the Supporting Actor category we’re guaranteed at least one of the more emotional moments in recent Oscar memory.

Even better news for fans of The Dark Knight is that many of the potential contenders released in the fall (like Blindness, Burn After Reading, Changeling and Miracle At St. Anna) fell by the wayside and lost any buzz they may have had. Additionally, a few films with “Oscar” written all over them (like The Soloist and The Road) were surprisingly pushed to early next year. That clears the path a little but as you can see below it’s still going to be very, very tough for that film to hold on and make it to January. And that’s not even taking into account the Academy’s prejudices against the genre, the fact it’s a sequel, the film’s flaws and its summer release date. That’s a lot to overcome. But if just a few of the top contenders fail to register Christopher Nolan may be able to pick out a tux. Actually, he will anyway since the movie is pretty much guaranteed a bunch of technical nominations.

In breaking news, one sure thing The Dark Knight isn't being nominated for is Best Original Score. According to this article in Variety it's been disqualified. I can't comment as to whether the score is actually deserving since everyone in the theater was talking and I couldn't hear it, but I can state the reason for its exclusion (much like that of Jonny Greenwood's There Will Be Blood score last year) is completely insane.

All of this is a little silly to speculate on since most of these films haven’t been released yet. Below I list the top contenders and their chances based on the Academy’s preferences and other factors. This isn’t a discussion about which films are “the best five” since I haven’t seen most of them yet but an educated prediction on which way the Best Picture race will go based on the info we have and the Academy members’ voting history. And if you don’t see a film down there (hello, Twilight) it’s because I don’t think it has a snowball’s chance in hell of being nominated. Interestingly, in all the years I’ve picked my personal choice for best film of the year it wasn’t a Best Picture nominee, which either speaks poorly for my taste or theirs. My prediction for the five nominees is at the end.

WALL-E (opened June 27)-It’s encouraging news that the folks at Disney recently announced that they plan on pushing it for Best Picture, despite the existence of a separate Best Animated Film category. But sadly, this has no chance, despite the film containing the timeless themes voters love. It will hurt voters’ brains enough reaching back into the summer to consider The Dark Knight so this figuring into the Best Picture hunt is unlikely, especially since there's already another category honoring its contribution.

Wall-E's fate was sealed in 2001 when the Academy created the animated award, not to honor the genre, but blacklist those films from intruding in the "real" races. They’ll see its inevitable win in that joke of a category (which only features 2 other nominees) as good enough. What a shame. This deserves to compete for the big one.

The Dark Knight (opened July 18)- While I didn’t think it was the greatest film ever anointed on the human race like everyone else seemed to there’s no way I can name five movies better than it…at least so far. In fact, naming one would probably be a stretch. And it would be tough for me to tell anyone with a straight face that I thought it was worse than Juno or Michael Clayton (especially Juno). One of the more ridiculous complaints I’ve heard against nominating it is that it’s a “comic book movie.” Sorry, but this is in no way, shape or form a comic book movie. More reasonable is making a case that the film is too flawed. Strangely though, no one seems to be doing that.

Warner Brothers is pushing it hard and have set up a "For Your Consideration" site. I couldn’t help but laugh at some of it though. Pushing Maggie Gyllenhaal as Best Supporting Actress is funny but suggesting Christian Bale be nominated for Best Actor is flat-out hysterical. Sorry, but that was NOT an Oscar-worthy performance. While I wouldn’t go so far as to say the movie succeeded in spite of him, it was Ledger’s show all the way. Plus, do you really want Bale giving an acceptance speech in his deep, gravely “Batman voice?” What isn’t a joke is pushing Eckhart and Oldman in the supporting race. They were amazing and deserve serious consideration.

In about a month's time we’ll have a better idea where this stands but that it’s still being discussed is probably encouraging. The tragic circumstances involving Ledger and its box office take should keep it in the forefront of voters’ minds and it does contain the hefty themes they tend to like. In any event, I’d love to see how the Academy could justify not nominating what’s not just the second highest grossing film of all-time, but the best reviewed movie of the year. Desperate for ratings for the telecast they’ll likely cave in. Maybe not the best reason, but you can't look a gift horse in the mouth.

Milk (Nov. 26)- No, this isn’t a film exploring corruption in the dairy industry, but rather the story of Harvey Milk (Sean Penn), San Francisco’s first openly gay city supervisor assassinated in 1977. The Academy loves Penn, or at least I thought so until his Into the Wild was criminally snubbed in nearly every major category last year. But voters always preferred his acting to his directing and he’s a lock for a Best Actor nod here. How much further the film can go is questionable since they tend to overlook biopics for Best Picture unless it’s an exceptionally weak year (remember Ray), and it sure looks like it could be.

Working against the film could be that it lacks the warm, mainstream audience-friendly vibe of director Gus Vant’s only previous Best Picture nominee, Good Will Hunting and there's always the possibility its November release could cause it to peak early and fizzle, even if Penn’s performance doesn’t. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if a timely film about a politician overcoming the odds slides in. It has a great chance. But there’s a better chance Josh Brolin will finally be recognized with a supporting actor nod after 2 straight years of tireless hard work in a wide variety of films. He might be our best un-nominated actor right now.

Australia (Nov. 26)- Since this is a Baz Luhrmann film people will either love it or hate it. There’s no in between. And since it stars Nicole Kidman critics and the media will try to cut its legs off before it even gets close to the Best Picture race. It could be terrible, but if it isn't would anyone have the guts to admit it? While the Academy loves big, sweeping epics l see this turning into more of a Romeo + Juliet than a Moulin Rouge! in that it has an enthusiastic cultish following, but doesn’t make a huge dent in the major award categories. Look for it to clean up in costume and production design.

Slumdog Millionaire (Nov. 27)-Truthfully, despite the strong buzz, I thought this was going to shape up to be just another little critical favorite that didn’t stand a chance until I read this synopsis on imdb:

“The story of Jamal Malik (Patel), an 18 year-old orphan from the slums of Mumbai, who is about to experience the biggest day of his life. With the whole nation watching, he is just one question away from winning a staggering 20 million rupees on India's "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire?" But when the show breaks for the night, police arrest him on suspicion of cheating; how could a street kid know so much? Desperate to prove his innocence, Jamal tells the story of his life in the slum where he and his brother grew up, of their adventures together on the road, of vicious encounters with local gangs, and of Latika (Pinto), the girl he loved and lost. Each chapter of his story reveals the key to the answer to one of the game show's questions.”

And they say there are no original ideas left in Hollywood. If it ends up being even half as good as that synopsis implies then watch out. Combine that with a director (Trainspotting’s Danny Boyle) long overdue to the Oscar party and we have a very serious contender. Voters always seem to find room for an indie, or even films just pretending to be one. And if that’s not enough it’s being distributed by Fox Searchlight (Little Miss Sunshine, Juno). This checks every box. In limited release now, but when it opens wider expect it to pick up massive momentum heading into December and January.

Frost/Nixon (Dec. 5)- In an election year the Academy will feel they have to nominate a political film and since Oliver Stone’s W. is too polarizing and controversial for them this fictionalized account of David Frost’s (Michael Sheen) TV interviews with Richard Nixon (Frank Langella) may be the perfect antidote. Still fuming after being passed over for his supporting turn as Skeletor in The Masters of the Universe, Langella aims to become the first actor to win an Oscar and a Tony for the same role.

I saw the trailer for this before W. and thought Langella’s take on the disgraced President looked goofy and cringe-inducing but I’m not about to judge a film based on a 2-minute clip. Or an unintentionally hilarious poster that misrepresents it as a campy 80's horror outing. Voters love Ron Howard and usually eat pseudo-historical stuff like this up, just as long as it’s directed by someone other than Stone.

The Reader (Dec. 10)- This is that OTHER Kate Winslet movie. Kate’s looking to pull a Cate from last year and pick up two nominations in two different acting categories with her supporting turn here as a Nazi war criminal hiding a scandalous secret. Given the dearth of contenders in that category every year it’s certainly possible, but Revolutionary Road is the Winslet movie to watch, not this one. All it does is clear the path for the more prestigious release because there won’t be enough room for both. If this film is even mildly successful all it will do is boost the prospects for her more anticipated project and put that in a better position come January. Winslet benefits, The Reader does not.

Doubt (Dec. 12)-Let’s just call this what it is: a vehicle for Meryl Streep to land her 500th Oscar nomination and nothing more. If she can be nominated for playing essentially a cartoon in The Devil Wears Prada voters will drool all of themselves with her turn as a nun. Oh, and Philip Seymour Hoffman will be losing to Heath…I mean nominated for Best Supporting Actor as well. But that’s it. This is an actor’s film, not a Best Picture nominee.

Gran Torino (Dec. 17)- Spike Lee may hate the 78-year-old Clint Eastwood but the Academy LOVES him. He could direct an episode of Sesame Street and they’d find a place for him on their ballots. Here he plays, an old, cranky Korean War vet who very reluctantly bonds with the Asian immigrant who tries to steal his ’72 Gran Torino.

If there’s one thing the Academy loves more than a film directed by or starring Eastwood, it’s a film directed by AND starring him. I predict he’ll win Best Actor for this because the Academy realizes the window is closing to honor him for his acting. He may get a director nod as well, but I just don’t get the impression it will be competing on the biggest stage. On paper it just doesn’t seem like it has that “big event feel” voters go for. So Eastwood will just have to settle, as if that’s settling. But it wins for most bad-ass poster. I love it. This is almost guaranteed to be nominated for SOMETHING.

The Wrestler (Dec. 17)-Oh, this is interesting. A low budget film without a distributor as recently as a couple of months ago has suddenly shot to the top of everyone’s Oscar prediction list. Hollywood still hates Mickey Rourke but they love a comeback story more. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the inside track is on him being nominated but I just can’t see the stuffy Academy rewarding any film having to do with professional wrestling with a Best Picture nod, no matter how good it is. Then again, I suppose the same could be said about boxing…and that won. If any filmmaker can overcome the seemingly insurmountable odds it’s Darren Aronofsky so I’m curious how this turns out.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Dec. 25)- YES! Could it be? Could a David Fincher’s film FINALLY be nominated for Best Picture? Could he finally get that long overdue Best Director nod? Based on F. Scott Fitzgerald’s short story of a man who ages backwards and starring likely lead actor nominee Brad Pitt, this is by far his best shot yet. Of all the movies on this list, this is the one I must want to see and it’s also the closest thing on here we have to a lock. It finds itself in the same comfy position as There Will Be Blood and Juno in that it’s being released in late December and hits wide in January. The studio didn’t just carelessly dump this in an Oscar dead zone like they did Fincher’s Zodiac last year. The Academy owes him a statue for that, The Game and Fight Club so it may be time to pay up. My expectations are through the roof for this.

Valkyrie (Dec. 26)-Don’t underestimate this Cruise guy. If anyone can make a story about a one-eyed Nazi plotting to assassinate Hitler work it’s him. This was actually pushed to early ’09 due to rumored production difficulties but was moved up again to capitalize on the goodwill surrounding Cruise’s performance in Tropic Thunder. Matt Lauer may have forgiven him for his loony antics but the Academy hasn’t… yet. This will do better than people think it will but no way will it be nominated for the top prize, or anything else for that matter. That it's directed by Bryan "Superman Returns" Singer doesn't help.

Revolutionary Road (Dec. 26)- Leonardo Dicaprio and Kate Winslet, the two stars of one of the most inexplicably reviled Best Picture winners in history are together again, this time as an unhappily married 1950’s couple who….um, honestly, I have no idea. I’ve read the synopsis of the film and I still couldn’t tell you what it’s actually ABOUT. It sounds like nothing happens at all. But that does that even matter to voters? They’ll see those two names and that of an Academy-Award winning director (Sam Mendes) not even bother watching the screener (it’s probably too long for them anyway) and vote for it. It’s about as safe a pick as there is and they can go to their cocktail parties telling everyone what a masterpiece it was. You have to give Kate and Leo though. They could have quickly sold out and reunited onscreen years ago but they waited over 10 years for the right project to come along. That makes me think it’s very good. And it could be the movie that finally nabs Winslet the gold.

Defiance (Dec. 31)-Here’s a case where having Daniel Craig in your movie really hurts and you pay the price during Oscar season. Coming a month after Quantum of Solace everyone will have Bond hangovers. And even though it covers dark, historical territory the Academy often rewards (anti-semitism), the field is just too crowded for this to make any kind of splash. It’s also directed by Edward Zwick (Blood Diamond) who has a gift for somehow turning deadly serious topics into mainstream, popcorn fare. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it never plays well with voters. The Zwick we have today is not the same one who directed Glory.
Don’t expect much.

My Prediction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire