2019 Oscar Predictions

The more things change, the more they stay the same. All the new ideas the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences attempted to introduce to make the Oscars more accessible have only landed us right back where we started. While part of that failure can be attributed to their inability to commit to anything, it's mostly due to many of those ideas (a "popular film" category, relegating important awards to commercial breaks) being bad ones that center around their obsession with shortening the show and increasing ratings. It's especially odd hearing so much about ratings when they've never mattered less and it's annually one of the highest-rated telecasts of the year behind the Super Bowl. But here we go again.

Unfortunately, all their panicking and poor planning has resulted in a situation where we won't have an Oscar host for the first time since 1989. And you know what? That's okay. They should get out of their own heads and just put on the show because this should be about celebrating movies and nothing else. Luckily for them, 2018 was a really strong year and the Oscar lineup features a handful of films that were hugely popular mixed in with some of the more obscure arthouse favorites they complain are dragging the ratings down. We're also guaranteed to get some lively musical performances, if nothing else. So let the show run long or don't. Just make it good.

Such a wildly diverse group of nominees has made this one of the more difficult years to predict, which is always more fun. With only the acting categories locked into place, it's tough to remember so many others that were this close, or in some cases, completely up for grabs. And once again,, the Best Picture category continues to shed it's reputation as the easiest to call by looking to be the tighest race of the night. They'll be legitimate suspense when that envelope is opened, and this time not just out of concern that the wrong winner will be announced.  Below are my predictions, along with some analysis of the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to make any updates or changes right up until the start of the show. 


*Predicted Winners


Animated Feature Film:
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Animated Short Film:
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Documentary Feature:
Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Documentary Short Subject:
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Live Action Short Film:
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

Film Editing:
BlackkKlansman (Bary Alexander Brown)
Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)
The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)
Vice (Hank Corwin)

Sound Editing:
Black Panther (Benjamin A Burtt and Steve Boeddeker)
Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst and Nia Hartstone)
First Man (Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan)
A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahi)
Roma (Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay)

Sound Mixing:
Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter Devlin)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin and John Casali)
First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee and Mary H. Ellis)
Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan and José Antonio Garcia)
A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic,  Jason Ruder and Steve Morrow)

Production Design:
Black Panther (Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart)
The Favourite (Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton)
First Man (Nathan Crowly and Kathy Lucas)
Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre and Gordon Sim)
Roma (Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez)

Costume Design:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther (Ruth Carter)
The Favourite (Sandy Powell)
Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)
Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)

Original Score:
Black Panther (Ludwig Goransson)
BlackkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)
Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)
Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)

Original Song:
"All the Stars," Black Panther
"I’ll Fight," RBG
"The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow," A Star is Born
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings," The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Makeup and Hairstyling:
Border (Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer)
Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore,  Marc Pilcher and Jessica Brooks)
Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia DeHaney)

Visual Effects:
Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl and Dan Sudick)
Christopher Robin (Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones and Chris Corbould)
First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles and J.D. Schwalm)
Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler and DAvid Shirk)
Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan and Dominic Tuohy)

Cinematography:
Cold War (Lukasz Zal)
The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)
Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
A Star is Born (Matthew Libatique)

Adapted Screenplay:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel and Ethan Coen)
BlackkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott and Spike Lee)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
A Star is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)

It's a two-way race between BlackkKlansman and Can You Ever Forgive Me? and since Spike Lee's not winning for Director and his film has little chance of taking home Best Picture, it has to be honored somewhere. There's no better place than here, where everyone finally gets their opportunity to give Spike a standing ovation when he gets to that podium to deliver what's sure to be a memorable speech. But no film has picked up as much awards steam recently as Can You Ever Forgive Me? It could easily pull an upset, and only be a slight one since the Academy would trip over themselves to honor a movie about a writer (albeit a disgraced one) in a writing category. The other three nominees are strong, but just taking up space, especially A Star is Born, which has seen its Oscar prospects alarmingly dip in every category but Original Song over the past two months.

Original Screenplay:
The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie and Peter Farrelly)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Vice (Adam McKay)

This is a tough one, as literally any one of these could win. Vice is too devisive and more respected for its editing and acting than McKay's screenplay. Roma is a beloved techincal achievement and will be recognized in those corresponding categories, a couple of which are more prestigious than this. While I'd jump out of my seat if Paul Schrader won a career award for his brilliant, completely deserving First Reformed script, it's not happening given how overlooked the film's been elsewhere. That leaves The Favourite and Green Book. You may as well toss a coin. I'll go with the former since it has to win something besides Costume Design and most agree that the writing is one of the stronger aspects of that film. Still, Green Book could easily take this as the alleged "controversies" surrounding the material hasn't hurt it's chances as much as some would like to believe.    

Actress in a Supporting Role:
Amy Adams, Vice
Marina De Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Stone or Weisz could probably take this in a lesser year, but in this one they'll cancel each other out for the same film. Here's where we should say that Marina De Tavira is lucky just to be there, but given the widespread support for Roma, there's more to it than that. In a category that loves upsets, she shouldn't be counted out. Neither should Amy Adams, at least not completely, as you'd figure after six (!) nominations the Academy is tired of overlooking her. But Lynne Cheney just isn't the role. Despite some doubt over her not landing certain key precursor awards, this is Regina King's year and the feeling that If Beale Street Could Talk has been underepresented here should only help her cause. 


Actor in a Supporting Role:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Remember when everyone thought Sam Elliot was a lock for A Star is Born? Better yet, remember when everyone thought A Star is Born was a lock for everything? That's defintely in the rearview mirror now as this becomes a showdown between frontrunner Mahershala Ali and Can You Ever Richard E. Grant, who's closed the gap considerably as he continues to be showered with praise for his work in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Even those who dislike the movie agreee he's the best thing in it.  Rockwell and Driver are deserving nominees, but the roles were really too small for them to ever emerge as serious threats in this category. Mahershala still has the momentum, even while the small chance exists there could be an upset. Very small.


Actress in a Leading Role:
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

In what's becoming an annual tradition in the two major acting categories, a Oscar statue is reserved for a Lifetime Achievement Award. This year it goes to Glenn Close for The Wife, a movie no one's seen, and the few who have, hated. The purpose of this award is really just to get everyone complaining about all the times they overlooked her for better performances. Sarcasm aside, I actually don't have a big problem with them doing this since it's tough to put up a strong argument that Close shouldn't be winning an Oscar at this point, despite the quality of the film she's being honored for.

A bigger concern might be that many don't feel Close's performance is even nomination-worthy, which I can't testify to since I also haven't seen it. Regardless, this is the lock of the evening, insuring everyone scores at least one right in their Oscar pool. The Golden Globe speech sealed it and it's been smooth sailing for her ever since. Just the nomination is a win for Roma's Yalitza Aparicio, Gaga was out of the running a while ago and as much respect and momentum as McCarthy's gained, it's just not enough. Olivia Colman may be Glenn's closest competition, but there's really no competition at all here. 

Actor in a Leading Role:
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Christian Bale gave up. He clearly didn't want to win, which is fine since he probably doesn't care and has one already anyway. Still, there is that nagging feeling he could have gone further as just over a month ago he was being talked about as a lock, with many believing his embodiment of Dick Cheney in Vice ranks among his greatest acting feats. As is the story for every category A Star is Born has been nominated in, former frontrunner Bradley Cooper has fallen by the wayside, all the goodwill he garnered for writing, directing, acting and producing his passion project having completely evaporated for reasons I'll never quite understand. You know it's a good year when Mortensen's your weakest nominee. If Willem Dafoe won for At Eternity's Gate ABC would terminate their multi-year contract to air the Academy Awards on the spot. As great a performance as Dafoe likely gives, hardly a soul on Earth has seen that movie and a strong case can be made that he's in the underdog spot that should be occupied by Ethan Hawke.

So against all odds and appearing in a film that had more behind the scenes mayhem than any recent Best Picture nominee in recent history, Rami Malek has emerged as the clear favorite to take this for his complete transformation into Freddie Mercury for Bohemian Rhapsody. And it's only started to become clear within the past few weeks with Malek working just as tirelessly at supporting the movie as he did in preparing for the role. Despite mixed reviews, its director being fired and even possibly going to jail, he's managed to completely shift the narrative to being all about Queen's music and his performance. Seemingly just a nice,  humble guy who's said and done all the right things, The Academy can't wait to give him that statue and hear the speech. It's the rare Oscar win everyone's on board with.

Directing:
Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman
Pavel Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

In many ways, this might be the most uninteresting category of the night. For one, a lot of names are missing that would have made this at least seem more competitive than it is. Bradley Cooper's absence is yet another harsh reminder of how far his film's fortunes have fallen. What a disaster. Regardless of whether Roma wins Best Picture, it's safe to say Cuaron still has this race locked up. The director who should be his closest rival (Green Book's Peter Farrelly) wasn't even nominated, leaving us with Spike Lee, who I just can't see the Academy rewarding no matter how successful BlackkKlansman has been. There's too much history there, and none of it good. But if there's a spoiler, it's him rather than Lanthimos or McKay. It's simply a shock Pawlikowski made it in. This is Cuaron's to lose and he won't.     

Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlackkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

As a black-and-white, foreign language film distributed by Netflix that lacks an editing nomination, Roma has a lot of things working against it. That, and the fact it's sure to win in the foreign film category seems to make a Best Picture win an impossibility. And yet, it not only has a really good chance, but is still pretty much the favorite right now. Green Book more traditionally fits what the Academy tends to go for and it's locked up all the necessary precursor awards (included the coveted PGA) that under other circumstances would sew up the win. But with no directing nomination and the unpredictabilty of the preferential balloting system, it could be on shaky ground. Combine that with the fact that many within the industry and media have unfavorably compared it to Driving Miss Daisy in terms of its regressive attitude toward race relations and it could face even bigger challenges.

In the year of Black Panther and BlackkKlansman, picking Green Book could be an especially bad look for an Academy that finally appeared to move forward in terms of diversity. Speaking of those, neither have enough gas in the tank to go all the way, with the latter having only a slightly better shot. And no one's giving a movie about Dick Cheney the Best Picture Oscar, regardless of how skillfully made it is. They may have been able to hold their noses long enough to vote for it, but that's where it ends. Enough's already been said about A Star is Born's downward spiral while The Favourite seems to be more respected than loved.

With a groundswell of support for Bohemian Rhapsody peaking at just the right time, it shouldn't be underestimated, as Academy members don't seem to share any of the same reservations about the film that critics do. They absolutely love it, but it's in this category where the Bryan Singer controversy starts to really become too much since there's no way he's getting anywhere near that award. It all comes down to Roma vs. Green Book, and a lot of people will probably be kicking themselves on Monday morning over their prediction, whatever the result. I opted for Roma, which just feels like the winner and has the most momentum right now.