It's that time again. Possibly as a response to last year's disaster of a telecast (the least watched Oscars ever) it was announced that there will be a host for the belated 94th Annual Academy Awards emanating from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on March 27th. Who that person will be is still a giant question mark, but we do now at least have nominations, as read this morning by actors Tracee Ellis Ross and Leslie Jordan. There weren't too many surprises or snubs, which could in large part be due to a thin, condensed field without a lot of alternatives.
The question wasn't so much what or who would show up, but where and how prominently. And in that respect, the big winner was unquestionably Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, which leads the pack with 12 nominations and now has to be considered the frontrunner to take home Best Picture. While questions of whether it would be too dark and morose for the Academy's tastes were quelled considerably this morning by its nomination haul, it still has to win, and with AMPAS desperately going back to ten Best Picture nominees, that's dicier than ever.
Looking at the nomination list (which can be found here), it's mostly satisfying, with many films and actors thought to be on the bubble, or in jeopardy of being snubbed, managing to get in. Still, the Oscars have a perception problem and another year's batch of underseen contenders doesn't look like it'll fix that. This is okay since the Academy Awards are what they are and it would be far worse to nominate high-grossing movies just to pop a rating or attract a hypothetical audiences who probably won't watch the show anyway. And after last year, it's hard to blame them, circumstances notwithstanding. So, that's where we stand, with this morning's announcement serving to only reinforce a long standing belief that voters do what they want, independent of critical praise or box office receipts. Sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't, but this was one of their better mornings. Let's look at the major talking points.
- The Power of the Dog cleaned up in a big way. Picture, Director (Campion), Adapted Screenplay (Campion again), Editing (Peter Sciberras), Cinematography (Ari Wegner), Supporting Actor (Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit McPhee) and Supporting Actress (Kirsten Dunst). Examining other winners of the Big Prize from year's past, most of their nomination scorecards aren't this this stacked.
-Spider-Man: No Way Home was never getting nominated for Best Picture. And then we definitely knew for sure from its lack of technical notices and an editing nod. We've all figured out how the Academy works by now. This wasn't happening.
-Somewhat of a second wind for West Side Story, a critically beloved box office flop in serious danger of being shut out of Best Picture, even with ten slots. It didn't. The average age of voters (some of whom remember the original's 1961 victory) and the Spielberg factor likely helped. And Ariana DeBose not only gets in for Supporting Actress, but has a good shot at winning. A great day for this film, racking up a whopping 7 nods. Far better than anticipated.
- Spencer's Kristen Stewart makes it. For a while, this was doubtful, to the point many were already declaring it the "big snub" before nominations were even announced. She'll be joining Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Olivia Colman (Lost Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos). Other than maybe Cruz getting in, no real shocks except snubs for Licorice Pizza's Alana Haim (far from a given), West Side Story's Rachel Zegler (somewhat of a surprise) and House of Gucci's Lady Gaga (a bigger surprise). And while it wasn't going to happen, I would have jumped out of my seat if Jennifer Lawrence sneaked in for Don't Look Up. As of now, the smart money's on Kidman.
-At this point, Will Smith's pretty much a lock for Best Actor for King Richard, with Cumberbatch his only possible threat. With his 10th career nomination for The Tragedy of Macbeth, Denzel Washington becomes the most nominated black actor of all-time. Bardem (Being the Ricardos) and Andrew Garfield (Tick, tick...Boom!) round out a field that lacks Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), and most regrettably, Don't Look Up's Leonardo DiCaprio.
-Even fewer surprises in the supporting races, with maybe Judi Dench a slight one for Belfast, at least as far as anyone can be surprised when she's nominated, grabbing a slot some thought could go to Passing's Ruth Negga, or possibly Tessa Thompson. And some point, the conversation seemed to shift from King Richard's Saniyya Sidney to Aunjanue Ellis, now a first-time nominee. Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) was left out in the cold while Lost Daughter's Jessie Buckley got in. It's looking more and more like DeBose and Dunst will be battling this out.
-Bradley Cooper doing double duty in Nightmare Alley and Licorice Pizza may not have helped him, going 0 for 2 with both lead and supporting nods. Nothing for Jared Leto for his love it or hate it House of Gucci turn. Whether Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-Phee cancel each other out for The Power of the Dog will be something to watch for in a strangely thin Supporting Actor category. McPhee is the safest bet here, but Troy Kotsur could actually win for CODA, assuming J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) or Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) don't manage a miraculous eleventh hour push.
- Dune predictably had a strong showing in nearly all the technical categories while maybe being the biggest beneficiary of an expanded Best Picture category. Let's face it: there's no way this gets in without more than five nominees. But it's also exactly the kind of big budget spectacle these extra slots were intended to provide an opportunity to. Whether it's entirely deserving is another issue, but I'd rather see this there than a more flawed effort like Tick, tick...Boom!
- You know it's a slow day when the biggest surprises are Ryusuke Hamaguchi's directing nomination for Drive My Car and an Original Screenplay nod for Joachim Trier's Worst Person in the World. But they're surprises nonetheless. Paul Thomas Anderson's inclusion (in both writing AND directing) would seem to improve Licorice Pizza's Best Picture fortunes, if not for the lack of an editing nod.
-Campion, Branagh and Spielberg round out the group for Director, while Guillermo del Toro misses for Nightmare Alley. His popularity was at least enough to get it in for Best Picture despite some wildly mixed reactions. Dune's less polarizing, but its technical achievements still weren't enough to propel director Denis Villeneuve to a directing nomination. Unfortunately, Don't Look Up's Adam McKay wasn't really expected to get in here, settling instead for a well deserved Original Screenplay nod.
-With a Best Picture field this large, you do run the risk of filling slots for the sake of it, potentially watering down the nominees. And that's kind of what's happened. While it's fair to say Drive My Car and Nightmare Alley were the least expected inclusions (displacing Being the Ricardos and Tick, tick...Boom!), neither are exactly shocks. House of Gucci was just a loser all-around, missing everything and then some. CODA, King Richard and Dune fit into the "thanks for coming" category, a designation far fewer will now be assigning to West Side Story after this morning. Nothing PTA does can be dismissed outright, with Licorice Pizza being no exception. And the timeliness of Don't Look Up ensures its presence amongst voters who believe a Best Picture winner should say something about the current world in which we live. But Oscar night will likely come down to The Power of the Dog vs. Belfast, a showdown proving that as hard as the Academy may try to change, the more they stay the same.
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