2016 Oscar Predictions

While the Academy Awards seem steeped in more controversy than ever this year, there's no debating that they're still very much a big deal. If they weren't, no one would care, and there certainly wouldn't be as much discussion and outrage as there's been over the past couple of months surrounding the nominations. If nothing else, Chris Rock shouldn't have any shortage of material in his opening monologue. And those watching definitely won't have a shortage of things to talk and laugh about when he's finished. Long considered a thankless job that's sunk even the most talented of comedians, actors, and TV hosts, Rock has the unusual benefit of this year's jokes sitting right over the plate for him. But as we know, it's always a tough room for any host, regardless of the circumstances 

Complaints about a lack of diversity in the nominations has already caused one unfortunate, unintended consequence: The conversation shifting away from all the deserving nominees that were recognized and the acknowledgement that, more often than not, the Academy does recognize quality. And occasionally, they even get around to rewarding it. This 88th year is no different than any other. Sometimes your favorites get in. Sometimes they don't. All you can do is sit back, enjoy the ride, taking pleasure in the tiny victories that do come your way as a movie fan. Like knowing your favorite film of the year may be recognized with a Best Picture nomination. Or celebrating a talent whose career you've followed from jump street, or in this case, since before 21 Jump Street.

There are 8 nominees this year for Best Picture, and despite my recent inactivity, I've seen over half of them. I meant to get a review up for the frontrunning The Revenant before the show, but will instead have to unfortunately settle for cramming in a last minute viewing. That race is still far from locked up though, as more than a few categories are still up in the air. It hasn't been one of the more enthralling Oscar races in recent years, but it's all over the place, making the prognostication game tougher than usual. The closest I've come to a clean sweep was missing two categories in 2014. Don't expect that this time. All predictions are below, accompanied with analysis where warranted. This time, I saved the big ones for last. As usual, I'm reserving the right to adjust these right up until the start of the show. But judging from the poor results of my flip flopping last year, that's a luxury I should probably restrain from indulging in.

*Predicted Winners 
        

Best Original Song
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3” from Youth
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre

Best Cinematography
Ed Lachman, Carol
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Roger Deakins, Sicario

Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Best Costume Design
Sandy Powell, Carol
Sandy Powell, Cinderella
Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl
Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road
Jacqueline West, The Revenant

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Best Live-Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

Best Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

*With performances in Mad Max: Fury Road, Legend and The Revenant, Tom Hardy's nomination for his diabolical turn in the latter represents the culmination of a creatively fruitful year. He'll get his Oscar. Just not now. Bale and Ruffalo are in similar spots as standouts in large ensembles, but if you're putting odds on an upset, Bale's wild performance, his history and The Big Short's surprising momentum gives him a better than decent shot here. Some think Mark Rylance can win for Bridge of Spies and he theoretically can. But who's talking about that movie? His victory narrative just isn't exciting enough. That leaves us with Creed's Stallone, for whom we can all agree the narrative is most definitely exciting enough, potentially winning gold for reprising the character he created over thirty years ago. Everyone loves a comeback and voters won't be able to resist hearing that music as Rocky takes the stage. The place will go nuts.      

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

*Spotlight's Rachel McAdams is a non-starter, relegated to background player in an ensemble role that should have been developed enough to earn her this. If they're interested in giving out a career award, there's no better option than Jennifer Jason Leigh, who is somehow only now receiving her first nomination. But The Hateful Eight's lack of presence in other major categories and Tarantino hate still running strong would prevent me from putting any money on it. And as much as I admire Steve Jobs and Kate Winslet's chameleon-like performance, the subtlety of it will probably be lost on Academy members who prefer the actress in bigger, showier roles. So, it's a battle between two ingenues in Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander. Given Oscar's storied history of anointing the the next "It Girl" in this category, Vikander's 2015 double shot of The Danish Girl and Ex Machina (for which many believe she should have been nominated instead) puts her over the top. If just barely. As usual, be wary of a possible upset in what's annually been the tightest contest.      

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Best Adapted Screenplay
Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Phyllis Nagy, Carol
Drew Goddard, The Martian
Emma Donoghue, Room

*In a perfect world, Room's Emma Donaghue would easily take this for pulling off the rare trick of successfully adapting her own novel. She would be my choice, but unfortunately three other adaptations fit more squarely into the Academy's wheelhouse. It isn't Drew Goddard, who's the odd man out with The Martian's inexplicable inclusion, with his script being that film's weakest aspect. Nick Hornby and Phyllis Nagy may be in the same boat for Brooklyn and Carol, respectively. Both are well regarded without being well regarded enough to take this. But don't count either out, especially Brooklyn, which, like Room, was liked enough to earn a Best Picture nod. The winners will likely be The Big Short's Chris Randolph and Adam McKay, who accomplished the seemingly impossible feat of adapting Michael Lewis' impenetrable book about the housing and credit bubble into a more easily digestible (if still impenetrable) piece of entertainment.   

Best Original Screenplay
Matt Charman, Joel Coen, and Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Pete Docter, Megg LeFauve, and Josh Cooley, Inside Out
Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Jonathan Herman and Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton

*Just the names "Joel and Ethan Coen" over Bridge of Spies' credits assures at least the chance at a potential upset. The challenge will be in reminding voters they had anything to do with that script. When praising Inside Out, everyone seems to place an emphasis on its surprisingly deep and insightful script. Unfortunately, the Animated Feature category exists partially to prevent the film from winning in categories like these. Ex Machina is a really inspired choice but it came out too early in the year and it's doubtful enough voters saw it. Besides, it's just too cool for them, which is a shame since Garland's script is probably the most deserving here. There's NO WAY voters are honoring the two white writers of Straight Outta Compton while the film was overlooked in every other category. Just imagine how that would go over. That leaves us with Spotlight, which has to win something. This is likely it.

Best Original Score
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Carter Burwell, Carol
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Jóhann Jóhansson, Sicario
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Foreign Language Film
Colombia: Embrace of the Serpent
France: Mustang
Hungary: Son of Saul
Jordan: Theeb
Denmark: A War

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

*It's great when the Academy gets it right. Brie Larson's going to win and most definitely deserves to, making for my most appreciated outcome of the night, and easily the past few years. I could waste time dwelling on all the nominees' chances (in short: Joy flopped hard, Rampling blew what little shot she had with controversial diversity comments, Blanchett just won this and Ronan's nod feels more like an invite into an exclusive club) but this space is better served recognizing an actress I'm not only a big fan of, but have actually written A LOT about. What's most amazing is that most of these are supporting roles and it still doesn't cover even smaller ones like Scott Pilgrim vs. The World, Greenberg or The Spectacular Now, where she also made huge impressions. 

In honor of Brie's potential win, I gathered a collection of choice review quotes of mine praising her work, including an eerily accurate prediction from 2014's The Gambler, a unique, underrated remake I seem to appreciate more and more each time I think back to it. Searching for an excuse to talk about it again, I couldn't be more pleased it's happening under these circumstances While some feel Brie's part was a throwaway or underdeveloped, it's a testament to her talent that even its director has apologetically admitted that's exactly the reason she was needed to do it. And she's really good, regardless of how anyone feels about the film, which does rightfully have its supporters. 

Incorrectly dubbed an overnight sensation, Larson's actually been kicking around in the industry for over 15 years, starting as a child actor and sometimes pop star, sharing the screen at various points with co-stars as insanely eclectic as Bob Saget, Toni Collette, Jimmy Buffett, Chris Kattan and Tony Danza. Looking and acting so completely different from film-to-film that few could pick her out of a lineup, it wasn't until the brilliant Short Term 12 a couple of years ago that she really turned the corner and exploded. And now, here we are. So, congrats in advance to one of my absolute favorites, somewhat easing the blow of what happened to Michael Keaton last year. Not many Oscar wins have me jumping out of my seat. This one will.

"....the biggest credit to the maturity and wit Larson brings to the role is that we're genuinely rooting for Hill's character to win this girl over and laughing too hard to even consider the moral and legal ramifications of an undercover cop picking up a high school student."- from 21 Jump Street review (8/9/12)

"And doing a complete 180 from her recent role in 21 Jump Street, an almost unrecognizable Brie Larson goes head to head with Harrelson in the emotional family scenes as his rebellious daughter" -from Rampart review (8/14/12)

One of the toughest things to convey as actor are hidden reserves of surprising strength or deep pain. Larson is able to do both, sometimes at once, and because we start with so much respect for the character and her relationship with her boyfriend and these teens, when she's forced to finally pull back the curtain on her life, the reveal is almost unbearable to take." -from Short Term 12 review (4/26/14)

"In a nearly wordless, dialogue-free performance, Brie Larson's face may be buried in her phone texting as Jon's sister, Monica, but conveys more with an occasional eye roll or sideways glance than most other actresses would with pages of dialogue." -from Don Jon review (5/28/15)

"Larson captivates as usual in the limited role, further confirming suspicions that Jennifer Lawrence probably needs to watch her back in the years ahead."-from The Gambler review (8/2/15)


"As Kim, Brie Larson is given an arguably undeveloped role she still manages to do a lot with, allowing us to see through her how Amy turned into such a disaster." -from Trainwreck review (9/16/15)

"...Larson really plunges the depths of this character in much the same way she did a couple of years ago in Short Term 12, taking a strong-willed caregiver and completely unraveling her as inner demons take over. Before long, it's apparent she's plummeted into a near-helpless state."-from Room review (1/18/16)

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

*It's time. He's due. The planets have aligned. Whichever phrase you want to use, Leo is taking home the Oscar and the only remaining question is which of the remaining nominees stand the best chance of pulling an upset that won't happen. Eddie Redmayne won last year and he won't be repeating given that The Danish Girl was even more poorly received than The Theory of Everything, but lacking the goodwill his performance in the latter had. Damon's work in The Martian is fun, but hardly Oscar worthy. In a stronger year, he's not even here. Fassbender gave the best male performance of 2015 in Steve Jobs, but too many people are inexplicably put off by the film, which flopped.

If DiCaprio somehow doesn't win, they would go for the popular Cranston who's popular enough in the industry to come one step closer to winning the EGOT. His biggest competition might not be DiCaprio, but Walter White. How do you top that? If only Trumbo were a better film and this wasn't Leo's year. But it is. And he's winning. Very few could claim he doesn't deserve it and we shouldn't be surprised if he wins a few more before he's done. And though it partially is, this doesn't feel like a "career achievement" award because the performance itself is deserving. The physicality he brings to the role of The Revenant's Hugh Glass stands out as being completely different than anything else he's done before.    

Best Director
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

*Only two filmmakers have managed to win back-to-back directing statues in Oscar history so it can be done. And while I'm not sure how I feel about Iñárritu joining the exclusive company of John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz when so many legendary directors have none, he will pull it off. There's no reason he shouldn't given the wave of momentum The Revenant is currently riding. Voters are more likely to be impressed he quickly followed up Birdman with something dramatically different than grouchy he's winning two in a row. If anything, it shows his range and they'll want to reward that.  

Spotlight isn't a director's film at all. The phrase, "The nomination is reward enough" has never been more applicable than it is this year to The Big Short's Adam McKay. Considering the skill it takes to direct two actors (one of them a child) in a single contained space for half the film and make it that compelling, Lenny Abrahamson should be seen as a bigger threat. Oddly, he's not. The strongest competition is Mad Max's 70-year-old George Miller and if we're talking purely about direction, he arguably accomplished the biggest feat of the year. If there's a Picture/Director split, he's winning. But there won't be. Iñárritu has this in the bag.      
Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

*We can agree right away that Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn and The Martian (which shouldn't be here) don't stand a chance, with each just not having enough critical or commercial support to go the distance. We can pretty much cross out any films that don't have a corresponding directing nomination, which makes this much easier. And as painful as this is for me to admit, we have to eliminate my beloved Room, which lacks that all-important film editing nod. This leaves us with Spotlight, The Big Short, Mad Max and The Revenant. Logic would indicate the Revenant lacking a screenplay nomination (or some would argue even much of a story) and The Big Short winning the Producer's Guild award, makes the latter an odds on favorite. Then common sense took over and people started to realize you can't just rely on statistics. The Big Short is polarizing and confusing. Movies like that don't win Best Picture, and especially if it's classified as a comedy.

The Academy would never give Best Picture to a genre film, even one as great as Mad Max, and still be able to look at themselves in the mirror the next day. Consider the fact that this and The Martian got a nominations a huge achievement in itself. Spotlight is a strong, solid choice if only it wasn't missing something. Namely a "wow" factor that all previous Best Picture winners have had. It doesn't feel BIG or emotional enough. Understated qualities that critics appreciate are sometimes not shared by the Academy, which is clearly the issue here. No matter what you think of it, The Revenant does feel big enough, containing the necessary scope, vision and emotion that most previous winners possess. It also boasts the most impressive filmmaking. Looking at the 8 nominees, it's tough to imagine voters won't feel it's the one, checking all their boxes, and making Iñárritu the only director in history to have his films win back-to-back Best Picture Oscars.

Mad Max: Fury Road

Director: George Miller
Starring: Tom Hardy, Charlize Theron, Nicholas Hoult, Hugh Keays-Byrne, Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, Riley Keough, Zoë Kravitz, Abbey Lee, Courtney Eaton, Josh Helman, Nathan Jones
Running Time: 120 min.
Rating: R

★★★ ½ (out of ★★★★)

There's always that risk of feeling completely lost or out of the loop when the latest film in a long-running franchise with which you have no familiarity is released. And in the rare event it's celebrated to the extent that George Miller's Mad Max: Fury Road is, it's easy to have a debate in your head whether you should even go through the trouble of seeing it. While that might be a close-minded thing to say, we all have those blank spaces in our moviegoing and it's a legitimate concern that my inability to get around to watching 1979's Mad Max, 1981's Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior or 1985's Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome could create a self-inflicted roadblock in any potential appreciation of the new film. But 10 minutes in, the female protagonist drives her War Rig right through those preconceived notions and I'm completely sold, up to speed and fully engulfed in the universe Miller created and has now returned to. No explanations necessary because it's right there on the screen, so much so that it takes until about an hour for an actual conversation to occur. In many ways, this should have been the highest-grossing movie worldwide because it speaks the one universal language: Action. Everything revealed is done so visually, and once Miller gets his hooks in, your his.

Technically, this delivers unlike any recent entry in the sci-fi/action genre, with effects, production design, action sequences and cinematography so spectacular you must be thinking this is some kind of a joke as you watch, mouth agape at what's transpiring.  If it's a common, justified complaint that we're beaten down every year by uninspired computer-generated mayhem, this is its cure and a beating I'd gladly take again with a smile on my face. Striving for artistic excellence absent in most movies of its ilk, it tells its story expertly with a hardly a misstep to be found. Hearing that a certain movie "needs to seen in a theater" usually causes my eyes to immediately roll back into my head, but the size and scope of this project legitimately demands it. Those prematurely proclaiming it one of the greatest action movies of all-time may only have to wait a few years before discovering the possibility they weren't that far off the mark.

Set in a future, post-apocalyptic desert wasteland where water and gasoline are in short supply, the grizzled Max Rockatansky (Tom Hardy) is captured by a group of War Boys, led by the ruthless Immortan Joe (Hugh Keays-Byrne), who takes him to the Citadel where he'll be imprisoned as a blood donor. But when Joe sends out one of his lieutenants, Furiosa (Charlize Theron), in a rig to collect gasoline, he realizes she's stolen his Five Wives selected for breeding and gone off course, double-crossing him. Joe enlists an entire army, including a sick War Boy named Nux (Nicholas Hoult) who will stop at nothing to impress him, and has Max strapped to the hood of his truck for blood supply. Looking to make it to the "Green Place" with the women and escape Joe's tyranny, Furiosa's path will cross with Max and Nux's, resulting in a combustible situation that test everyone's loyalty and will to survive.

There's a thrilling chase sequence that seems to last about twenty minutes in the front half of the picture and  the highest compliment that can be given to it is that you don't feel as if your senses have been pummeled and are actually looking forward to whatever follows. Since Miller and cinematographer John Seale are such pros at sfilming these scenes, the action is the setup and there's never a doubt as to what's happening at any given moment. One of the script's biggest strengths is that we're immediately keyed in to the decisions these characters make and why without the burden of needless expository dialogue.

Furiosa's motivations are clear early on, as she intends to be the one who shakes things up, leading a surprising rebellion that lets Immortan Joe (clad in a terrifying Skeletor-like breathing mask) know that, even in a desperate, post-apocalyptic wasteland, these women aren't his property, nor is anyone else. And Theron is in full ass-kicking mode, giving the one-armed Furiosa a death stare that would send any potential threat heading for the hills before she even throws a punch or fires a shot, both of which she does plenty of. The arc of Hardy's Max and Hoult's Nux is a little more complicated, but no less riveting.

As the maniacal loner and prisoner finally getting a taste of freedom, there's an air of mystery surrounding what Max will actually do with it because he's flat-out dangerous. He could easily align with Furiosa or become her and the girls' worst enemy at the drop of a hat and while Hardy's performance has widely been labeled as merely sufficient in the face of Theron's, it's worth considering how effortlessly he replaces Mel Gibson with hardly anyone noticing. Nux's job as a character is to essentially sacrifice himself for Joe's greater cause so what resonates about Hoult in the role is how the realization slowly washes over him that it may not be worth it and he'd rather be a human being than a weapon. And The Five Wives (played by Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, Riley Keough, Zoë Kravitz, Abbey Lee and Courtney Eaton) are hardly portrayed as passive damsels in distress, often taking a surprisingly active roles in the carnage as Miller also lets each of their personalities shine through, simultaneously subverting and exploiting their supermodel images for the good of the story.

This feels entirely like how action movies used to be made in the 1980's and it's arguable the chase scenes and action sequences (which pretty much compose every minute of its length) give Star Wars: The Force Awakens a run for its money in terms of production design and its balance of CGI and practical effects. You could call Miller's creation a throwback but doing so would almost imply it isn't the real thing or in any way feels like a reboot or remake in any traditional sense. There's a lot to take in at once in terms of what's on screen so it's not unusual that your jaw suddenly drops at the visual inventiveness of  it all, such as the guitar player strapped to the front of the rig or the "polecats" of Joe's army.   And because there's so little dialogue, the music has to carry much of the load, with Junkie XL's recognizably pulse-pounding score more than delivering the goods.

As big an achievement as this is, and how little it feels directed by a 70-year-old, it's accomplishments are primarily technical, making it difficult to gauge just how much stayed with me after the credits rolled. It's easy to imagine watching the movie multiple times with little difficulty because it's so exciting, but there is a nagging worry that its pleasures, as considerable as they are, may only run skin deep. Of course, this could just be a side effect of it being a genre picture or possibly where my unfamiliarity with the franchise prevents it from leaving the long-lasting impact it would on someone who grew up with the original films.

While nostalgia admittedly went a long way in covering for some of The Force Awakens' shortcomings in the minds of many, it's nearly impossible to level that accusation here. And there's nothing at all average in the execution of it, as Miller temporarily breaks down the barrier that's historically prevented action movies from gaining critical respectability. Thematically, there is more to it if you're willing to read between the lines to see this as a Biblical allegory about feminism, war, oppression or the environment, but Fury Road's ultimate value comes in the pure joy of just simply experiencing it.
          

2016 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Bright and early this morning, the 88th Annual Academy Award nominations were announced live in Beverly Hills by AMPAS President Cheryl Boone Isaacs and actor John Krasinki. Despite maybe one or two fairly big surprises, I wouldn't say there were any real "shockers" that couldn't be explained away by the Academy's usual voting patterns. I thought it was a thin (though not necessarily weak) year with some categories barely filling the required slots, so any conversations regarding snubs need to, as usual, be taken with a grain of salt. And of course, we have what's become the annual debate about the lack of diversity in the nominations. But I'll assume that detractors really mean to say that the INDUSTRY AS A WHOLE needs to present more opportunities for minorities to be put in a position where they can be nominated.

With a smaller pool to choose from, it's inevitable there will be omissions, so simply "diversifying" the nominations for the sake of it really doesn't address the problem. I wish the media would phrase it like that, instead of hurling accusations of racism at an entire voting body of industry professionals who missed a few of nominations.  And as usual, each alleged "snub" should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis. That seems fairest, especially since it's impossible to recognize everyone's favorites. But as we know, the Academy is more often than not out of step with the general moviegoing population and sometimes even the critics. So let's assess the damages and talking points:

-The Revenant is the one to beat, leading with 12 (!) nods. And barring a huge upset, Leonardo DiCaprio is finally getting his Oscar. 

-No Star Wars: The Force Awakens for Best Picture. I loved it and would have been pleased to see it there but let's be honest: This was a real long shot. A special set of circumstances surrounded the 1977 original being nominated, and even that didn't win. The Empire Strikes Back wasn't even nominated. In my mind it's a four-star movie but a different kind of one than what's typically nominated for the top prize, even with 8 nominees. Instead, they went for two other populist entertainments in its place. 

-J.J. Abrams also gets shut out. Again, no surprise there. The film's notices predictably came in the technical categories, while 83 year-old John Williams becomes a nominee yet again for his magnificent score, which expertly combined the old with the new.  
 
-Carol not being nominated for Best Picture or Best Director (Todd Haynes) is as close to a shock as we'll get. Then again, if you go back through the Academy's history, this isn't a subject matter they're particularly comfortable with. Though, Eddie Redmayne got in for playing a transgender in The Danish Girl, so who knows?

-Cate Blanchett is in for Best Actress while Rooney Mara goes supporting for Carol. Some category fraud  there but given the picture being snubbed, things could have been worse for them.

-Jennifer Lawrence gets in for Joy, despite the film's lukewarm (at best) reception. But she was never really at risk. At 25, she's now officially the youngest actor ever to earn four Oscar nominations. Not bad. They do love her, but she won't be winning one again this year.

- ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEE BRYAN CRANSTON. Didn't think this would happen for him this soon after Breaking Bad but boy am I glad it did, as he inches closer into EGOT territory.

-The Martian is nominated for Best Picture, becoming my least favorite contender in that category in years. Ridley Scott doesn't get in for Best Director, which I can live with. But his direction and Damon's performance were the best things about it.

-Matt Damon in for Best Actor. He was kind of on the bubble, but made it. I have mixed feelings, as I enjoyed what he did with the role, but question whether it's actually award-worthy.

-George Miller takes Ridley Scott's Best Director spot for Mad Max: Fury Road, which is also in for Best Picture. The rare sci-fi movie to earn such a designation. Of course, that's assuming we're still counting The Martian as a comedy.  

-Michael Fassbender gets in for Steve Jobs. Would have also liked to see a surprise Best Picture nod, but I'll take it. And Winslet's expected supporting nod. Can't believe they overlooked Sorkin's script though.     

-No Will Smith for Concussion but how many people were really raving about that performance or the film? It may be great for all I know, but it had very few supporters.

-The Big Short gained incredible momentum when the ballots went out, as a comedy gets in for Best Picture and the man who helmed Anchorman (Adam McKay) gets nominated for Best Director. Now THAT qualifies as a shocker.

-Surprise supporting nominees: Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Tom Hardy for The Revenant and, to a slightly lesser degree, Christian Bale for The Big Short (I think most suspected Steve Carrell to get in instead).

-No Idris Elba supporting nomination for Netflix's Beasts of No Nation or Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria. Both of these were longer shots than they actually appeared because of all the enthusiasm and support behind them. Enthusiasm that unfortunately didn't carry over to industry voters.

-No Peanuts Movie for animated feature? Charlie Brown really can't catch a break, can he? Good grief.

-Once again, Academy Award nominee Sylvester Stallone, for returning to the role he made famous over thirty years ago in Creed. Here's hoping he uses this as a launching pad to do more character-driven work moving forward. 

-The omission of Creed's Michael B. Jordan is probably the strongest case that can be made for a flat-out snub in the Best actor category, even if few seem to have predicted him

-Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's Paul Walker tribute track "See You Again" from Fast and Furious 7 fails to to snag a Best Original Song nomination. Are they ever going to get these song categories right?

-At least they didn't screw up the documentary category this year, as the beloved Amy Winehouse doc, Amy, justifiably gets in.

-I had to do a double take to even notice Spielberg's Bridge of Spies was nominated for Best Picture. That's how talked about it's been. In some ways it's the biggest shock of the morning, included mainly out of obligation to who directed it.

-Brie Larson. Brie Larson. Brie Larson. That is all.

-Not only does Room get in for Best Picture, but Lenny Abrahamson is nominated for Director.

-As if the reaction to Tarantino's Golden Globes speech wasn't indication enough, the full brunt of the backlash has finally hit. He's snubbed for writing and directing for The Hateful Eight, which also failed to get a Best Picture nod. It did get cinematography and a somewhat surprising (but welcome) first nomination for Jennifer Jason Leigh in supporting. 
     
-Sorry, but it's tough to be surprised Straight Outta Compton wasn't nominated for Best Picture. The reviews, while very good, weren't entirely rapturous, and we know the Academy's taste and makeup. That it even got a writing nod (presumably knocking out Tarantino) is pretty damn impressive enough though.    

-Much to my chagrin, Love and Mercy is overlooked in all categories, most disappointingly Paul Dano's transcendent performance as Brian Wilson.

-I clearly have a lot of cramming to do before February 28th.