Burning Questions From The 2026 Oscars

Conan as Aunt Gladys?

 

Shouldn't Weapons have been nominated for more than just one Oscar?

 

Did that opening just give the whole movie away?

 

Aunt Gladys playing ping pong?

 

Aunt Gladys in KPop Demon Hunters?

 

Was that opening sketch an early sign Amy Madigan would win?

 

Didn't you know Conan wouldn't waste any time cracking a joke about Chalamet's ballet insult?

  

Wasn't he right about Ted Sarandos having never been to a theater? 

 

Is it safe to assume that won't change now since Netflix isn't buying Warner Bros.? 

  

Isn't it the sign of a good joke when the audience gasps with discomfort?

 

Did Conan's coronation ceremony make you want to see him actually win a Oscar?

 

Did you remember that Zoe Saldaña won Supporting Actress last year?

 

Actually, that one was kind of memorable wasn't it?

 

Is she aging in reverse?

 

Was everyone prepared to get that category wrong? 

 

Was everyone prepared to get every category wrong?

 

Did every Oscar prognosticator breathe a sigh of relief when Madigan won? 

 

Wasn't it a given she'd give an entertaining speech? 

 

Was Conan's "Let's see him put his name in front of that" the line of the night?

 

How about his story about telling his wife he's the same age as Brad Pitt?  

 

Any doubt KPop Demon Hunters would take Animated Feature? 

 

Did they try to play those winners off quickly or what?

 

Was that because Madigan went long? 

 

Was an upset winner for Animated Short the last thing anyone needed for their Oscar scorecard?

 

Was this the earliest in the show we've ever gotten a musical performance? 

 

Wasn't that whole Sinners thing kind of wild?

 

Did you hear how into it the audience was? 

 

Would it have gotten your attention if Frankenstein lost Costume Design to Sinners? 

 

Or Makeup to...The Smashing Machine?

 

Who expected the first bleep of the night to come in the Hair/Makeup category? 

 

Did you expect cast members to introduce each of their own film's casting directors?

 

Conflict of interest much? 

 

But wasn't it kind of great? 

 

How about that ovation for The Secret Agent? 

 

Remember how sure everyone seemed of a category we've never had before?

 

Should we be a little more careful when predicting this one next year?

 

Did you see it as an ominous sign that Sinners lost in a category it was thought to be locked for? 

 

Did that bode well  for OBAA's Best picture chances?

 

A TIE????!!!!

 

How do we count this on our ballots? 

 

Did you notice how careful Kumail was to reassure us it wasn't a joke after what we saw happen with Moonlight and La La Land?  

 

And wasn't he right about the irony of the Live Action Short category taking twice as long now?

 

Retracting the winner's mic? Really?

 

Is Chalamet ever going to live this whole ballet thing down?

 

Unless he wins the Oscar, apologizes and dedicates it to dancers worldwide? 

 

Should he know it's bad when winners are somehow incorporating it into their acceptance speeches?  

 

Did you remember Kieran Culkin won Supporting Actor last year?

 

Didn't you just know Sean Penn wouldn't be there?

 

"Or didn't want to?"

 

Wasn't that Casablanca skit with Sterling K. Brown pretty clever? 

 

Will it ever get tiresome seeing Paul Thomas Anderson accept a writing Oscar?

 

But isn't it about time for a directing one?  

 

Would Ryan Coogler somehow losing Original Screenplay doom Sinners for the rest of the night? 

 

Wasn't it great to see Billy Crystal on an Oscar stage again?

 

Could it possibly be under sadder circumstances?

 

Did you forget just how many popular, widely beloved titles Rob Reiner directed?

 

Did you spot Fred Savage on stage?

 

Wasn't that tribute an appropriate segue into the In Memoriam segment?

 

Is "appropriate" not usually the word we'd use to describe how they handle this portion of the show?  

 

Isn't it scary the names we lost his past year? 

 

Diane Keaton, Catherine O'Hara, Val Kilmer, Robert Duvall, Robert Redford?  

 

Did they really just leave out James Van Der Beek?!

 

Eric Dane?

Brigitte Bardot? 

 

How much longer are they going to keep pulling this?  

 

Aren't you just waiting to hear the producers' lame excuse...again? 

 

Were you about to lose it until remembering they did include Gene Hackman in last year's segment?   

 

Did anyone else have problems understanding Barbra Streisand?

 

Wait, doesn't everyone call her "Babs?"

 

Not a question but...Grogu!

 

Isn't Avatar always good for an easy Visual Effects win?

 

They really want to get this thing finished by 10:30 don't they?

 

Didn't Grogu try his best to clap?

 

Why does the upcoming The Mandalorian and Grogu movie feel four years too late?

 

Remember when that Kimmel guy hosted the Oscars?

 

Did its title alone sway members to vote for Mr. Nobody Against Putin? 

 

Did the lack of political speeches come to a screeching halt with this category?

 

Isn't F1 by far the weakest of the Best Picture nominees?

 

Am I the only one who doesn't get the deep affection for Bridesmaids? 

 

But wasn't that bit with the notes funny?

 

Did Maya Rudolph have the best opening line with "Earlier today while I was counting my money?" 

 

Did you expect the Academy President to look like a cross between Anna Camp and Brittany Snow?

 

Lewis Pullman does really look a lot like his dad doesn't he?

 

Did OBBA's editing win lock its Best Picture Oscar?

 

Or maybe not after that Sinners cinematography upset?

 

Can you believe a woman's never won in this category before now? 

 

Didn't Train Dreams deserve it?

 

Isn't "Golden" inbsanely catchy?   

Javier Bardem doesn't hold back does he? 

 

Did anyone remember that Lionel Ritchie won an Original Song Oscar for White Knights?

 

Or recall the last time Diane Warren wasn't nominated?

 

They really didn't want that "Golden" songwriter to speak did they?

 

Weren't the producers downright militant in cutting time this year?

 

Doesn't it feel good to finally say PTA has a directing Oscar? 

 

Wouldn't Zendaya and Pattinson in a PTA movie be intriguing? 

 

Isn't it the truth that Adrien Brody saved last year's show from running short? 

 

Has the Best Actor race ever been this tight? 

 

Okay, maybe not? 

 

Didn't Michael B. Jordan's mom look proud? 

 

Didn't he give a classy speech of appropriate length? 

 

But can we please keep Will Smith's name out of our mouths at the Oscars? 

 

So maybe it didn't end by 10:30 but they still made really good time didn't they? 

 

Is it hard for anyone to forget Mikey Madison beating Demi Moore last year? 

 

Was it even possible to imagine a scenario where Jessie Buckley loses? 

 

Are there any actors who can't sing?

 

Didn't the best film win for a change? 

 

How about that impressive 1975 Best Picture nominee list PTA rattled off? 

 

Isn't he right about Chase Infiniti being the heart of that movie? 

 

How was she not even nominated?  

 

But isn't it cool how she was named after two of 1995's most memorable movie characters?  

 

Was Marty Supreme just completely shut out? 

 

How about the show's ending skit? 

 

Was that even more of a spoiler than the opening?

 

Or maybe not, if you didn't know which nominated picture they were spoofing? 

 

Does appointing Conan as "Host For Life" actually not sound like such a bad idea? 

2026 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Earlier today, actors Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman announced the 98th Academy Award nominations live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. And yes, the Oscars are still airing on ABC, at least until 2029 when YouTube obtains exclusive global streaming rights to the show, signaling the end of an era. This means all those complaints about how low the ratings have sunk will come to an end as the Academy makes a move that can't help but feel a decade late. And while it remains to be seen exactly how this will entice more viewers to watch a three and a half hour telecast or solve its formatting issues, it's a start. 

Until then, get ready for more business as usual. Regardless of how or where it airs, the Oscars do still represent the apex of the movie year for many hardcore cinephiles eagerly anticipating which of their favorite films made the cut. And for the directors, actors, producers, writers and crew all directly involved, the stakes couldn't be higher. On the bright side, there's good reason to be excited about the addition of the first new category in 25 years with "Achievement in Casting." It's a long time coming, even if voters went the predictable route of just cutting and pasting the top films into it. 

The morning's huge winner was Ryan Coogler's Sinners, which overperformed with a record-breaking 16 nominations, besting the 14 nod mark set by All About Eve, Titanic and La La Land. And as predicted, One Battle After Another fared extremely well with 13, even if it may not be as solid a lock for the big prize as we originally assumed. Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein also cleaned up with 9, dominating the technical categories while also appearing in slots few expected. So now we'll see how much momentum all these films can retain heading into the Conan O' Brien hosted ceremony on Sunday, March 15th. But for now, here's look at all the morning's big surprises and snubs, along with my analysis. The full nomination list can be viewed at Oscars.org. 

-Sorry, but 16 nominations seems a little excessive for any film, and that's coming from someone who likes Sinners a lot. But what can you say? The movie just struck a chord with voters and possessed all the necessary components to cover a large swath of categories. The big shock was acting though. Very few even mentioned Delroy Lindo or Wunmi Mosaku as possibilities in the supporting categories, but here we are. Paul Thomas Anderson might be feeling a little more worried now. Can a vampire movie win Best Picture? We're about to find out. 

-Speaking of One Battle After After Another, there's no planet where 13 nods would ever feel like a disappointment. That said, Sinners definitely took some wind out of its sails, but as we know, a high nomination tally doesn't always equal the most wins, especially for a genre film. The more alarming development is Chase Infiniti missing Best Actress. This is what happens when a studio runs someone in the wrong category. Had they pushed her for Supporting, she'd be an Oscar winner. 

-The blockbuster Best Picture slot went to F1, as some had correctly predicted. The absences of Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good are glaring, especially since it would be quicker to name all the movies that didn't get in with such a massive field. The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value were the two chosen international entries to make the cut, but also had great showings elsewhere, joining Train Dreams in a contingent of tiny movies that could. Bugonia (!), Frankenstein, Hamnet and Marty Supreme rounded out the rest of the field.

-Aside from Amy Madigan's expected supporting nomination, Weapons drew blanks. And that's kind of surprising when you consider how much credit it's shared with Sinners for revitalizing Warner Bros., which was dead to rights before those two films emerged as runaway hits and primed the studio for a sale. But it looks like voters could only find room in their hearts for one horror entry. Knowing their history, it's a miracle they were even able to do that. 

-Zhao, Safdie, PTA, Trier and Coogler made the cut for Director and it's hard to call any of those a surprise. If you're not listed here your movie isn't winning Best Picture, which exposes the fallacy of an expanded ten nominee category. Del Toro's conspicuous by his absence, but with the amount of love Frankenstein's already received, it's hard to muster up too much sympathy. He'll be back. 

-Best Actor is the only category that went EXACTLY as expected, even if I'd like to see Bugonia's Jesse Plemons recognized. But with Chalamet, DiCaprio, Hawke, Jordan and Moura, it's tough to determine who voters would have picked for him to replace. But this is still Chalamet's to lose, with Michael B. Jordan suddenly finding himself in a better spot after what Sinners just pulled off.

-Kate Hudson: 2-time Oscar nominee. It's strange even typing that when you evaluate the actress's 25 year trajectory since being nominated for playing Penny Lane in Almost Famous, a role that should have launched her career into the stratosphere. But she lost and it didn't, only now returning to her roots with a comeback performance in Song Sung Blue, another musically themed picture. But the better news is that she didn't take Emma Stone's well deserved spot for Bugonia (which also nabbed Score and Screenplay nods). Both actressess join If I Had Legs I'd Kick You's Rose Byrne, Sentimental Value's Renate Reinsve and likely winner Jessie Buckley for Hamnet. The big omission was OBAA's Infiniti, and to a far lesser extent, Wicked: For Good's Cythia Erivo and longshot Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee.

- The OBAA combo of Penn and del Toro were always Supporting Actor locks, joining Frankenstein's Jacob Elordi, Sentimental Value's Stellan Skarsgård and Sinners' Delroy Lindo. This category mostly went according to plan, save Paul Mescal's snub for Hamnet and the surprise nod for Lindo, who joined Hudson and Mosaku in providing the auditorium with its biggest gasps and applause of the morning. 

-The Norwegian drama Sentimental Value scored big in the Supporting Actress category as both Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lleaas get in, bringing that film's acting nomination total to four. This and its strong showing across the board make it one of the more notable, under-the-radar success stories of the season. OBAA's Teyana Taylor still has to be considered the frontrunner as Weapons' underwhelming haul might create an uphill battle for Amy Madigan. While Winmi Mosaku's inclusion is a shocker, it makes sense in hindsight, especially seeing how Sinners dominated.

-The casting category is already perplexing in its initial year. Who's to say even the greatest films necessarily represent a huge achievement in casting? Can't bad movies be well cast? Despite having never voted on this award before, the Academy somehow found a way to compile a list that feels like more of the same. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, OBAA, The Secret Agent, Sinners. It's strong casting all around, but they just cherry picked all the Best Picture nominees. 

-As for the technical races, I would have been thrilled to see James Price's imperative production design for Bugonia and Tron: Ares' visual effects (along with that Nine Inch Nails score) recognized, but it just wasn't meant to be. And in the case of the latter, it felt like the longest of long shots. But it was great to see The Lost Bus acknowledged for its tremendous effects, along with a Best Makeup nomination for The Smashing Machine, which strangely ended up having no worse a morning than Weapons did.

 

Burning Questions From The 2025 Oscars

  

Didn't it feel good seeing this start at a reasonable time?

 

Did you expect that optimism would fade later on?

 

Wasn't that L.A. tribute montage incredibly short given the circumstances? 

 

Can you believe they were seriously considering not have any musical performances on the show at all?

 

Was that a rhetorical question?

 

Were you expecting Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande to perform in character?

 

Was that maybe asking a little too much?

 

Okay then, how about Chalamet?

 

Out of all the nominees Conan could insert himself into, wasn't 'The Substance' the best choice?

 

Wasn't his joke about Netflix's constant price hikes the cold, hard truth?

 

Just like the one about Karla Sofía Gascón's publicist?

 

Didn't you know he'd immediately go there with the Gascón jabs?

 

And why shouldn't he?

 

Can you believe she actually attended? 

 

A sand worm playing the piano?

 

While the musical number was funny, did you think "I Won't Waste Time" was a promise Conan wouldn't be able to keep?

 

And wasn't that kind of the song's point?

 

With the exception of Chalamet's ultrasound, didn't those celebrity headshots resemble not so embarrassing high school yearbook photos?

 

How about that Adam Sandler bit? 

 

Did Robert Downey Jr. ramble or what? 

 

Are they really not showing any film clips of the nominees...again? 

 

Were you worried they'd present every category like that?

 

With the Culkin win, was everyone officially guaranteed one right on their ballots?

 

Sort of like he and his wife are officially guaranteed two more kids?

 

So, they're showing clips after all?

 

Did anyone correctly predict Animated Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever? 

 

Didn't the costume nominees presentation take up a lot of time?

 

What would Conan say about that?

 

Wasn't Nick Offerman the ideal choice for announcer?  

 

Were you thinking that Original Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Anora?'    

 

Or were you thinking that Adapted Screenplay win was a promising early sign for 'Conclave?'

 

Weren't June Squibb and Scarlett Johansson an inspired pairing? 

 

Did Squibb display the best comedic timing of any presenter?

 

In the event of an Adrien Brody win, wouldn't it be better to have Halle Berry announce Best Actor?

 

Is isn't absurd how Margaret Qualley had to be a part of the James Bond tribute to get onto the Oscars?

 

So, they decided to go all in on the musical performances anyway?

'Cinemastreams?'

 

Was that the first time we've seen Darryl Hannah in over a decade?

 

Did that editing loss seal 'Conclave's' fate? 

 

Why were they not showing clips for the Supporting Actor and Actress nominees?

 

When Zoe won were you wondering if she'd mention Karla Sofía Gascón? 

 

If you still wanted a career after this, would you?

 

Was that Rolex commercial better than just about any Oscar montage?

 

Mick Jagger?!

 

Isn't he unsurprisingly great at this whole presenting thing?

 

Did you think the 16th time would be the charm for Diane Warren? 

 

Did anyone correctly predict Documentary Short?

 

In any year?

 

Ever?

 

Am I in shock that I actually did?

 

Would "guessed" be a more accurate word than "predicted" in this instance?

 

Miles Teller and Miley Cyrus?

 

Are they Conan's version of Letterman's Oprah and Uma?

 

Was Conan's 'Anora' joke about "standing up to a powerful Russian" the line of the night?  

 

Am I the only one perplexed at the level of online hate directed toward Rachel Zegler?

 

Doesn't that 'Better Man' movie look ridiculous? 

 

Did my luck run out with Live-Action Short?

 

Didn't everyone's?

 

Wasn't that a classy tribute to Gene Hackman from Morgan Freeman? 

 

Wasn't it jarring to see how many big names we lost over the past year?

 

And surreal seeing Shelley Duvall, David Lynch, James Earl Jones and Gene Hackman listed consecutively at the end of the montage?

 

Did you yell "Oh no, not again!" when you realized they excluded Michelle Trachtenberg?

 

How can they so royally screw this up every year?

 

Are they trying to upset viewers?

 

Was 'I'm Still Here' winning Best International Feature the ultimate slap in the face to 'Emilia Pérez?'

 

Wasn't that sort of expected? 

 

Does it get any better than Mark Hamill coming out to John Williams?

 

Was Best Actor the most suspenseful award of the night? 

 

Did you breathe a sigh of relief or disappointment when Adrien Brody won? 

 

Was Cillian Murphy worried Brody would try to kiss him?

 

Did Brody's gum tossing top his infamous Halle Berry moment? 

 

Was his speech longer than 'The Brutalist?'

 

Did you notice Tarantino nodding and clapping with approval when Sean Baker talked about the importance of preserving the theatrical experience?

 

Was he preaching to the choir with that one? 

 

After seeing the poorly chosen Demi Moore clip, were you worried she may not have this in the bag after all? 

 

Did 'Anora''s screenplay, editing and directing wins forecast Mikey taking this? 

 

Didn't she give a really nice speech?

 

Though she hid it well, how disappointed must Demi be right now? 

 

Once Best Picture rolled around, wasn't 'Anora' winning inevitable?

 

But did you really expect it to clean up like it did?

 

Can Conan O' Brien do this again?

 

At this point, should any host just chalk it up as a victory they made it through the show without getting slapped? 

2025 Oscar Predictions

Lately, there's been this split inside the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, as the old guard continues to clash with an influx of newer members who changed the game when preferential balloting went into effect in 2009. While the former still cling to traditionalist views of what an Oscar winner should look and feel like, a younger, more diverse voting body has risen up, with some surprising results. 

Rarely has the playing field seemed as fractured as this year, as competing definitions of what a Best Picture is comes to a head an hour early on Sunday when Conan O'Brien hosts the show. And as recent victors like Parasite, Nomadland, Coda and Everything Everywhere All At Once have proven, bigger doesn't always equal better for voters, with gigantic, high grossing theatrical epics becoming extinct in the streaming era. In retrospect, last year's "Barbenheimer" phenomenon was an anomaly, not just in terms of critical and commercial success, but in generating the kind of water cooler buzz that leads to renewed Oscar interest. 

Wicked appeared to be taking that route until abruptly fading from the conversation despite its 10 nomination haul. Instead, the headline surrounding this 87th Academy Awards is scandal, with former frontrunner Emilia Pérez's chances going up in smoke after a flurry of offensive tweets resurfaced from Best Actress nominee Karla Sofía Gascón. Now, it faces the very real possibility of being shut out of all 13 categories for which its nominated. 

Suddenly, we're left with a potential Conclave vs. Anora showdown when the dramatic papal thriller faces off against a more zeitgeisty vision that could better represent where modern filmmaking's headed. Whether it gets the general public to care about the show is almost beside the point since this almost century old institution isn't going anywhere, regardless of what wins or how much doomsayers complain. But we are set for a really tight one on Sunday. Below are my predictions, along with an analysis of the major categories.                

 

*Predicted Winners 

ANIMATED FEATURE
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Sugarcane 

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Death By Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I'm Still Here (Brazil)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Emilia Perez (France)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
Flow (Latvia)

LIVE ACTION SHORT 
A Lien
Anuja
I'm Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 

FILM EDITING
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (David Jancso)
Conclave (Nick Emerson)
Emilia Pérez (Juliette Welfling)
Wicked (Myron Kerstein)

SOUND
A Complete Unknown (Tod A. Maitland, Donald Sylvester, Ted Caplan, Paul Massey & David Giammarco)
Dune: Part Two (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett & Doug Hemphill)
Emilia Pérez (Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz & Niels Barletta)
Wicked (Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson & John Marquis)
The Wild Robot (Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A. Rizzo & Leff Lefferts)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist (Production Design: Judy Becker; Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia)
Conclave (Production Design: Suzie Davies; Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter)
Dune: Part Two (Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau)
Nosferatu (Production Design: Craig Lathrop; Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová)
Wicked (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown (Arianne Phillips)
Conclave (Lisy Christl)
Gladiator II (Janty Yates & Dave Crossman)
Nosferatu (Linda Muir)
Wicked (Paul Tazewell)

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

ORIGINAL SONG
"El Mal," Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
"The Journey," The Six Triple Eight (Diane Warren)
"Like a Bird," Sing Sing (Abraham Alexander & Adrian Quesada)
"Mi Camino," Emilia Pérez (Camille & Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late (Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt & Bernie Taupin)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man (Mike Marino, David Presto & Crystal Jurado)
Emilia Pérez (Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier & Jean-Christophe Spadaccini)
Nosferatu (David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne Stokes-Munton)
The Substance (Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli)
Wicked (Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus (Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin & Shane Mahan)
Better Man (Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft & Peter Stubbs)
Dune: Part Two (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe & Gerd Nefzer)
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story & Rodney Burke)
Wicked (Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk and Paul Corbould)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold, Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius & Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)

A month or two ago, Audiard's script for Emilia Pérez would have been a serious threat in this category, or at least leading Nickel Boys and Sing Sing. Now it's in dead last, with all the controversy shining an even bigger spotlight on what dissenters already thought was the film's weakest aspect. Now, A Complete Unknown has made up about as much ground as Pérez lost, but most are more enamored with Chalamet's take on Dylan than Mangold and Cocks' script. That leaves the still very well regarded Conclave, which almost has to win this with Edward Burger's direction going unnominated and the Actor and Picture outcomes still in doubt. Its recent SAG and BAFTA trophies only help.       

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

It's a surprise enough voters even knew about September 5 so its inclusion here is probably reward enough. A Real Pain has a great chance, but with only one other nod to its name, it may not be significant enough to topple three strong Best Picture contenders. If it's between Anora, The Brutalist and The Substance, this outcome largely depends on what happens in the bigger, more consequential races. Given the roll Anora's on and that the latter two will likely be recognized elsewhere, you have to figure this goes to WGA winner Sean Baker, who's the only nominee equally respected as both a writer and director. Whether or not Anora takes home the big one, voters will want to reward him here.        

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
Ariana Grande (Wicked)
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

With a frontrunner who's been forced to distance herself from the very film she's nominated for, the discussion revolves around how much damage has been done to Zoe Saldaña. But there's good news. While not quite the lock she was a month ago, even Pérez's most vehement haters would admit her performance is far and away the best thing in it. So what it really comes down to is whether anyone can beat her. 

Rossellini has two minutes of screen time in Conclave, most need to be reminded The Brutalist's Jones was nominated, and as much love as A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro has gotten, a win her first time out is a stretch. That leaves us with Ariana Grande, who's deserving, but Wicked's stalled campaign makes it hard to imagine voters favoring her, even under these circumstances. If anything, the Academy will be more inclined to reward Saldaña for graciously holding it together throughout the entire P.R. disaster. With Globe, BAFTA and SAG wins under her belt, she's got this.               

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Yura Borisov (Anora)
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Anora's Yura Borisov earned a surprise, but well deserved nod that's hopefully just the start for him. Norton represents yet another endorsement for A Complete Unknown, but he's a real longshot. Though many think Guy Pearce should be getting even more attention for his role as industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren in The Brutalist, he's a lot less likely than Adrien Brody to be the acting win that polarizing film picks up. 

So good as young Trump's slimy mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice, Jeremy Strong taking this feels completely justified, if not for the fact his Succession costar Culkin already has it locked up for his manic portrayal of rambunctious, grief ridden cousin Benji Kaplan in A Real Pain. While the Supporting Actress race is known for its upsets, this category isn't, and should be the only foregone conclusion of the night. Put your money on Culkin, who won every precursor in sight and seems poised to deliver another wildly entertaining acceptance speech.   

ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
Mikey Madison (Anora)
Demi Moore (The Substance)
Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

Gascón never had much of a chance at pulling this off anyway given how her lead category placement was called into question from the get-go, with many still believing she and Saldaña should have swapped places. But none of that matters now, as her shot at becoming the first openly trans actress to win an Academy Award has evaporated. But what it does is create an opening for beloved underdog Fernanda Torres to capture some of those international votes for her Golden Globe winning performance in I'm Still Here, which no one dislikes.

Erivo seemed much stronger before Wicked fizzled, erasing her from contention and leaving Mikey Madison and Demi Moore to battle it out in a race that's narrowed considerably in recent weeks as Anora's gained momentum. Madison's surprise BAFTA win definitely helped and a potential Best Picture victory could seal this since her performance and the film are nearly inseparable. But SAG and Globe losses to Moore, combined with her lower visibility, could hurt. Voters have also have a history of passing over young ingenues by rationalizing how much "time" they still have to win Oscars.

It's less what Madison lacks than everything Moore brings, which is immense popularity and a narrative that overcomes any ambivalence toward endorsing a graphic body horror film. And who among the Academy won't want to hear another inspiring acceptance speech about the double standards facing  women in Hollywood? Or reward an actress who thought she was finished, only to pour all those fears and insecurities into the defining role of her forty year career? Comeback stories don't get much bigger than this.                     

ACTOR
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

In a sparser than usual field, I'd jump out of my seat if Sebastian Stan won for The Apprentice, but it's just not in the cards. And neither is a victory for Sing Sing's Colman Domingo or Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, who's slipped despite Conclave recently regaining ground. Besides giving the category's most popular performance, Chalamet managed to win over many doubters who assumed he couldn't play a believable Bob Dylan and does his own singing (something previous winners like Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody can't claim). The surprise SAG victory indicates passionate support, even if it came after Oscar voting already ended. 

Whether or not playing a real life figure still carries the same currency it once did, Chalamet would be the youngest Best Actor winner ever at 29, breaking the record set by fellow nominee Adrien Brody over twenty years earlier in The Pianist. And we'll see if voters can justify holding off on crowning Chalamet, who many believe will be back here again soon. But whatever hesitation there is in recognizing Mikey Madison for that reason, just double it and ask Elvis' Austin Butler how things went for him against Brendan Fraser. As divisive as it is, The Brutalist can't go home empty handed and Brody's suffering performance as Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor László Tóth could be how voters honor it, making him a two-time Oscar winner. Still, this race is a coin flip.                

DIRECTOR
Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
Sean Baker (Anora)
Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

Voters might be feeling a twinge of remorse that they can't substitute Conclave's Edward Burger, Nickel Boys' RaMell Ross, or Dune: Part Two's Denis Villeneuve in for Audiard, but the ship already sailed. A Complete Unknown will be remembered and celebrated for a while to come, but most agree it won't necessarily be for Mangold's direction. The Substance making it this far is a real credit to the talents of writer/director Fargeat, but a Best Actress and Makeup win is probably its ceiling. 

A possible Picture/Director split is always on everyone's minds when this year's no exception. Almost equally strong cases can be made for Brady Corbet and Sean Baker, but Baker has the slight edge having picked up that coveted DGA, an almost foolproof indicator that the Oscar's his. And if The Brutalist is a rough sit for voters, the more warmly embraced Anora has been held up as the ultimate signifier of Baker's skills. And him somehow feeling overdue with barely ten films behind him has to be seen as a very positive sign.         

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Emilia Pérez is finished, and while it's still leagues better than the atrocity that's been described, the film's excessive nomination tally and unfortunate scandal put a target on its back. Wicked peaked months ago and will occupy a proverbial blockbuster slot alongside Dune: Part Two, with voters awaiting their final installments before awarding either.

The competition is too stiff for I'm Still Here and Nickel Boys, neither of which have a director nod or equally meaningful notice that indicates a break through. The Substance's genre starts factoring in here since there's very little chance the Academy would crown a horror film with its top prize. A Complete Unknown's late surge is impressive, but more likely to result in a win for Chalamet than the movie as a whole. 

The Brutalist was looking much better a couple of weeks ago and it's hard to imagine a cerebral critics pick running away with this, especially considering how a similarly themed and executed masterpiece like There Will Be Blood couldn't even manage to pull it off. Conclave has a BAFTA and just recently got the SAG boost, but Berger's lack of a directing nod is worrisome.

While there's some precedent for overcoming the director hurdle (ask Ben Affleck), what can't be overcome is Anora winning both the PGA and DGA, making its path to gold a whole lot easier. Of those that have, only Brokeback Mountain, La La Land and 1917 failed to win Best Picture, with their losses documented as the most shocking in Oscar history. This doesn't feel like one of those races. Anora checks all the important boxes, solidifying it as the safer bet.                

2025 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

After an understandable delay and a couple of reschedulings, the 97th annual Academy Award nominations were announced live this morning by actors Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. The results largely lined up with what was anticipated, save for a few surprises and one huge shock. What's most predictable about these is how the wealth is always spread among two or three films, leaving the rest to fight for scraps, despite everything usually hovering around the same level of quality. And without a big frontrunner like Oppenheimer, that was only magnified this year. 

Of course, there are always complaints about how certain fan favorites were overlooked, leaving us to determine what exactly constitutes a "snub." While those definitions will vary based on who you ask, there were still some noteworthy developments as we approach the Academy's first live steaming telecast on March 2 hosted by Conan O' Brien. Now with a little over a month left to go, we at least know a little more about where voters' heads are at, as scary as that prospect seems. Below are all the important talking points. Click here for the complete list of nominees.

-13 nominations for Emilia Pérez is a bit much, and if that's coming from someone who really liked the film, you can just imagine other reactions to Jacques Audiard's crime musical tying Oppenheimer's nomination haul. While it probably won't come anywhere close to that win total, it could be the rare case where a movie's increased profile is a detriment, causing detractors to dig their heels in even more.  

-Wicked and The Brutalist followed with 10 nods a piece, shattering whatever expectations that the latter would be too tough or cerebral a sit for voters. Of course we're assuming they actually watched it. To no one's surprise, Wicked cleaned up in all the technical categories such as costume, visual effects, production design, sound, editing and makeup. 

-The glaring omission of Conclave's Edward Berger in the director category all but confirms suspicions it's not going the distance, especially with Pérez's Audiard and The Brutalist's Brady Corbet in the mix. It's also reasonable to speculate James Mangold took Berger's spot, further solidifying voters' love for A Complete Unknown, which overperformed across the board. Any lingering worries about genre bias toward The Substance was just squashed with Coralie Fargeat's inclusion here and in Best Original Screenplay and Picture.

-The Substance's, Demi Moore is sitting in a really favorable position with a strong narrative to win, even as Mickey Madison still remains a possible victor for her work in Sean Baker's Anora. Despite lead/supporting category confusion, Pérez's Karla Sofia Gascón becomes Oscars' first openly trans Best Actress nominee while the field is rounded out with Wicked's Cynthia Erivo and I'm Still Here's Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres, who's inclusion came at the expense of Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Amy Adams (Nightbitch). Zendaya was always a longshot for Challengers, and though it would have be downright surreal to utter the words "Oscar nominee Pamela Anderson" for The Last Showgirl, a bigger surprise comes in another category.

-Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice! Oddsmakers gave him a much better chance at getting in for his other Globe-nominated performance in A Different Man, but the audible gasp in the room when his name was announced for that film said it all. Easily the nomination of the morning, and one of the most deserved, with the Academy proving they can get it right. Adrien Brody has a good chance at becoming a two-time Oscar winner for The Brutalist, as he competes with Conclave's Ralph Fiennes, Timothée Chalamet's take on Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown and Sing Sing's Colman Domingo. Queer's Daniel Craig is left out.

-A groundswell of support for the film helps lift A Complete Unknown's Monica Barbaro to a Supporting Actress nomination for her performance as Joan Baez in one of the mornings more surprising inclusions. Selena Gomez's absence wasn't entirely unpredictable, with many voters likely thinking her Pérez co-star Zoe Saldaña has this in the bag anyway. Wicked's Ariana Grande will be her closest competition while Conclave's Isabella Rossellini nabs the last spot with the smallest role here. The obvious exclsuion is Margaret Qualley for The Substance, and while we suspected this could happen, it's still somewhat surprising after seeing how well the film fared overall. 

-Denzel (Gladiator II) and Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) are the only perceived oversights in a Supporting Actor category that sees Jeremy Strong justifiably getting his due for his complex turn as Donald Trump's despicable mentor Roy Cohn in The Apprentice. Joining him is Anora breakout Yura Borisov, A Complete Unknown's Ed Norton and The Brutalist's Guy Pearce, who serves as the latest indicator this divisive film is gaining traction. As basically the surest lock in any race right now, it's Kieran Culkin's to lose for A Real Pain.    

-With Best Picture shaping up to be a two movie battle between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist, it seemed as if decided Dune: Part Two had a guaranteed spot months ago, if only out of pure obligation. Wicked, Conclave and Anora were all no brainers while the Nickel Boys and Brazil's adored International submission, I'm Still Here occupy underdog slots that many thought would go to A Real Pain and Sing Sing. Beating the odds, The Substance becomes one of the very few sci-fi/horror films to get nominated for the big prize. And riding its sudden wave of momentum, A Complete Unknown can now lay claim to matching Director and Picture nominations.

Other Random Observations:

-Nosferatu did surprisingly well, picking up nods for costume, makeup, production design and cinematography. More than most expected.

-Composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are overlooked for their pulsating Challengers score, which many thought was the movie's best chance at a nomination.

-Despite its Original Screenplay nod and inevitable Kieran Culkin win, A Real Pain may go down as one of those critics' picks that just couldn't gain a foothold with voters in major categories, which might actually be a compliment.

-The Best Original Song category has failed to drum up interest in recent years and the decision not to have nominated songs performed on the show only reinforces that. And considering one of the two from Emilia Pérez is sung by a major recording artist co-starring in the film, this feels like even more of a missed opportunity than usual.

-Documentaries haven't fared much better, as a category that once generated a decent amount of excitement with eclectic selections is now almost entirely comprised of films examining social issues and nothing else. There's no question those should be there, but remember Searching For Sugar Man? It probably wouldn't make the cut now, though they did find room this year for Elton John's Never Too Late. If 2023's snub of Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie didn't reveal voters' aversion to entertainment biographies, their latest exclusion of Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story may have confirmed it. 

Burning Questions From The 2024 Oscars

 

 

Are we tired of Oscar hosts inserting themselves into clips of the Best Picture nominees?

Were you at least relieved it was just one?

Wasn't Jimmy Kimmel right that the show started already running behind?

Were you counting down the minutes until we got a joke about the length of this year's Best Picture nominees?

Or a De Niro age gap joke?

Or how about Robert Downey Jr.'s drug addiction?

Didn't RDJ less than thrilled?

Can you really blame him?

Was Messi the dog the best part of Kimmel's monologue? 

Or was it his shot at Katie Britt's State of the Union response?

Isn't it a great idea to finally have a Casting Oscar? 

When you saw the previous Supporting Actress winners come out on the stage were you thinking, "Oh no not this again?"

Were each of those introductions as long as an entire acceptance speech?

Did that just ruin any plans of the show not going over time?

Wouldn't it be more beneficial to show a clip from each nominee?

Would that have felt like an even bigger waste of time if Da'Vine Joy Randolph somehow didn't win?

 

Was that David Allan Grier? 

 

Didn't you just know Myazaki wouldn't show up?

 

Do voters even care?

 

Wasn't it great that the orchestra played that instrumental version of P.I.M.P. when Anatomy of a Fall won Original Screenplay?

 

Can you imagine if The Holdovers actually won that in light of the recent plagiarism allegations?

 

Wasn't that a solid speech from Cord Jefferson?

 

Did Billie Eilish's "What Was I Made For?" performance make you more certain it would win Best Song?

 

Is Michael Keaton back to collect his stolen Oscar for Birdman?

 

Or stolen nomination for The Founder?

 

After wins for Makeup, Costume and Production Design, wasn't it clear Poor Things would be cleaning up?

 

Was Lily Gladstone starting to get worried? 

 

Is there anything John Cena won't do?

 

Between him, The Rock and Bad Bunny, has WWE fully taken over this show? 

 

Wasn't Blunt and Gosling's "Barbenheimer" bit pretty funny?

 

Shouldn't there be a Stunt Oscar already?

 

Did you remember that Tim Robbins won Best Supporting Actor for Mystic River?

 

Did he jump the gun a bit in calling De Niro's Flower Moon performance Oscar-winning?

 

Didn't it take longer than you expected for Oppenheimer's first two wins?

Is there any audience member better at playing along with these bits than Spielberg? 

 

Weren't you relieved they didn't start playing off 20 Days in Mariupol director Mstyslav Chernov during his acceptance speech?

 

Are we finally getting that Twins sequel? 

 

Wasn't that an awesome Batman bit with Schwarzenegger, DeVito and Keaton? 

 

Were the Godzilla Minus One winners holding more Oscars or Godzilla figures?

 

Wes Anderson wins his first Oscar but isn't there?

 

Were the Best Song performances getting shorter and shorter?

 

Is that really something to complain about? 

 

How about John Mulaney's Field of Dreams dissection?

 

Did that make you want to see the movie again right now?

 

Should he host this show next year?

 

For his sake, do you hope he turns it down?    

 

How wild was Gosling's "I'm Just Ken" performance?

Didn't we all just know it would be? 

 

For just a second there, did you consider John Williams could win his sixth Oscar at age 92?

Is Billie Eilish the only one who didn't see that win coming? 

 

Didn't the earlier start time really, really help this show?  

 

Did you almost forget they still have to get to the In Memorium segment?

 

Were you curious how they'd screw it up this year?

 

Didn't we lose a lot of big names? 

 

How surreal was it to see Paul Reubens and Matthew Perry were two of them? 

What was with that huge, unreadable block of names they just threw up there? 

And the nonsensical camera angles?

Are they ever going to get this thing right?

Lance Reddick?

Treat Williams?

 

Wasn't that a great group of former Best Actor winners they picked as presenters? 

 

Can we please get Nicolas Cage nominated for something again soon? 

 

Wasn't it a pretty safe bet Spielberg would present Best Director?

 

Was it an even safer one that Christopher Nolan would win?

 

Isn't it weird that Jessica Lange won her Best Actress Oscar for the otherwise completely forgettable Blue Sky?

 

How about the look of utter shock and disbelief on Stone's face when her name was read?  

Did everyone's prediction scores take a nosedive after that?

Was all the love for Poor Things in other categories a good indication this could happen for her?

 

Did you think that Trump tweet was just a joke at first?

 

Can anyone really be surprised it was real? 

 

Could Al Pacino have read the Best Picture winner any more casually?  

Shouldn't we just be grateful the correct winner was announced? 

Well, that whole show was relatively painless, wasn't it?

 

For all the criticism Kimmel gets, is there really anyone else that audience would be able to tolerate? 

Wasn't it nice to have this telecast end on the same date it began for a change? 

2024 Oscar Predictions

Most years, Academy voters can either be relied on to spread the wealth among a variety of different films in many categories or put their energy behind one title that runs the table, sweeping nearly everything. Think Ben-Hur, Titanic and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. Whether Oppenheimer joins that exclusive club remains to be seen, but it's sure shaping up that way, as it lays claim to a whopping thirteen nominations. 

Converting even half of those nods into wins would still make Sunday's 96th Oscars telecast a fairly predictable one, leaving little room for the surprises we hope for. Or if you're a more casual follower, plummeting ratings indicate you may not be watching anyway. But despite constant rumblings the ceremony could follow the SAG Awards to a streamer, it'll be staying on ABC for now with Jimmy Kimmel back hosting at a mercifully earlier start time.

In an effort to attract more eyeballs, Barbie will be all over the screen for promotional purposes, at least if commercials and ads are any indication. Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie's snubs notwithstanding, eight noms is still an impressive haul that can be credited to what they brought to material no one thought could work. Voters will ensure it picks up something, but the night really revolves around Oppenheimer's foreseeable wins and how the show's producers can overcome any potential monotony accompanying that. On paper, Best Actor and Actress appear the least locked, but even the tightness of those races has widened in recent weeks, which could be good news for fans finalizing their picks. My predictions are below, along with an in depth analysis of the major categories.           

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teachers' Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Anatomy of a Fall (Laurent Sénéchal)
The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)

BEST SOUND
The Creator (Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Maestro (Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich & Dean Zupancic)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon & Mark Taylor)
Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo & Kevin O’Connell)
The Zone of Interest (Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fisk and Adam Willis)
Napoleon (Arthur Max & Elli Griff)
Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
Poor Things (Holly Waddington)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
"It Never Went Away," American Symphony (Jon Baptiste & Dan Wilson)
"I'm Just Ken," Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
"What Was I Made For?" Barbie (Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
"The Fire Inside Me," Flamin' Hot (Diane Warren)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon (Scott George)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby & Ashra Kelly-Blue)
Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou & Lori McCoy-Bell)
Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel)
Poor Things (Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier & Josh Weston)
Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts & Neil Corbould)
Godzilla: Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi & Tatsuji Nojima)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams & Theo Bialek)
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One (Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland & Neil Corbould)
Napoleon (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco & Neil Corbould)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
El Conde (Edward Lachman)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

This is a somewhat challenging race to predict since it's one the few Oppenheimer might not win. Already poised to take home at least a few technical awards, Poor Things is riding high right now, making it easy to imagine voters rewarding Tony McNamara for working wonders with Alasdair Gray's 1992 novel. In an open field like this, The Zone of Interest can't be discounted, either for its subject matter or how Jonathan Glazer handled a tricky adaptation. 

Three-time screenplay nominee Gerwig (along with co-writer Noah Baumbach) being recognized after all isn't outside the realm of possibility since this seems like an ideal place to honor Barbie. But confusion over its category placement landed it in a far more competitive race that's likely to be won by Cord Jefferson. His timely, of the moment take on Percival Everett's 2001 novel culturally resonates in a way its closest competitors don't. It also holds a BAFTA win over Oppenheimer, which isn't nothing.      

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet, Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer)
May December (Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Celine Song)

Barbie's exclusion opened this race up a little more while May December makes its only Oscar appearance alongside Cooper's more Academy-friendly Maestro. But in the case of both, writing wouldn't be singled out as their key strength, or at least enough of one to pull off a win. Past Lives risks getting lost in the shuffle while David Hemingson's classically constructed screenplay for The Holdovers was a sure bet until Anatomy of a Fall won this award at BAFTA and the Globes, emerging as the new favorite. 

Fall's other nominations also indicate broader support, with Triet and Harari's script appealing to voters' sense of storytelling efficiency. The Holdovers can still pull this off, but it may have stood a slightly better chance if director Alexander Payne was credited as a co-writer alongside Hemingson since everything's a popularity contest. And that it feels like a literary adaptation could work for or against its chances of voters recognizing its originality.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrara (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Blunt's first ever nod for Oppenheimer seems perplexing until you realize overall appreciation for the film carried her through. Danielle Brooks and Jodie Foster are in better positions, even as their respective films were overlooked in enough key categories that they've sort of become afterthoughts. 

While America Ferrera's reward will have to be impressively making the cut for Barbie, Da'Vine Randolph is the lockiest of locks for her performance as grieving Barton Academy cafeteria manager Mary Lamb in The Holdovers. It's hard to think of a more universally praised turn from anyone all year. In a category known for surprises, we won't be getting any here.           

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Voters liked Barbie's Gosling more than enough to find a spot for him but it's unlikely he has enough support to go further for his wildly subversive and entertaining take on Ken. It was always a coin flip between Poor Things co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, but it's Stone's movie, leaving the chosen Ruffalo as the odd man out in a crowded category. 

With KOTFM having lost momentum, the likelihood of De Niro upsetting for his turn as villainous politico William "King" Hale follows suit. Most agree it's great to see him in a role like this again, while also acknowledging there isn't anything particularly special about the performance. 

There's been nothing but unanimous praise for Sterling K. Brown's work in American Fiction but he's unfortunately pitted against an unstoppable Robert Downey Jr. who's been collecting trophies all season as two-faced Oppenheimer nemesis Lewis Strauss. Besides him greatly contributing the year's most honored film, it's being viewed as a post-Marvel reminder of what he's always done best. One of the biggest locks of the night.

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Acting legend Annette Bening has never won an Oscar, but as beloved as the five-time nominee is by voters, it won't be happening this year for her physically taxing performance as a 60-year-old distance swimmer in Nyad. And it's a shame Netflix didn't push harder since it's exactly the kind of part that could have done it for her. Mulligan (who should have won for 2020's Promising Young Woman) is sensational in Maestro, but with many still feeling it's Cooper's film, this is an uphill battle. She'll be back. 

If there's a spoiler, it'll be Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall given the Academy's large European contingent and overall respect shown to that film with its other nods. If the top two split votes, she's still a long shot, but no more of an impossibility than Olivia Colman was in 2018 when she upset Glenn Close.

With Critics Choice, BAFTA and Golden Globe wins, Stone's still sitting pretty right now, but Gladstone's arguably better situated, having also locked up a Golden Globe in addition to her PGA and SAG victories. But Stone already having Supporting Oscar shouldn't really harm her chances and the fact she's playing a resurrected nymphomaniac isn't viewed as much of an obstacle either, with most  focused on how brilliantly she did it. 

Despite divisive reactions to KOTFM, voters won't be able to resist the temptation of crowning Gladstone the first Native American Best Actress winner and hearing what's sure to be a moving acceptance speech. Even if we focus entirely on the performances and say those things shouldn't matter, they do. On top of this, the work itself is deserving. Even Stone's probably pulling for her at this point, knowing the backlash she'd inevitably get for winning. The Best Actor race may be close, but this is tighter, with Gladstone poised to make history. And we all know how much the Academy loves that.                

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Many may have loved the performance, but Colman Domingo is the outlier here with the smallest chance in this field of five. Cooper's been unfairly mocked for silly reasons, but in another year the multi-time nominee would have finally sealed the deal with his memorable portrayal of late composer Leonard Bernstein. Wright's gained a lot of steam for American Fiction, but he peaked a little late, making it hard to picture him pulling this off.

If we're keeping track, Murphy won the Golden Globe, BAFTA and most recently the SAG. Giamatti holds PGA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe victories heading into the show. On paper, the edge is Murphy's since it's highly uncommon to win the SAG and not walk away with Oscar gold. Plus, a tidal wave of Oppenheimer support can only help bolster the chances for the type of biographical performance voters usually embrace. 

In his favor, Giamatti's career high work as a curmudgeonly educator in The Holdovers is probably more accessible than Murphy's icier turn and some may feel he's owed a trophy for the Sideways travesty. But that was decades ago so it'll probably come down to the movies, one of which its studio hung out to dry and is viewed as being more "lightweight" than the juggernaut that is Oppenheimer. Murphy takes it in one of the night's closer races.           

BEST DIRECTOR
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Even if voters weren't exactly feeling adventurous when narrowing this down, but it's hard to argue against the inclusion of any of these filmmakers on merit. Perhaps more noticeable is who they displaced, as many still wish either Gerwig, Payne, Song or Jefferson could have snuck in. To that end, Glazer and Triet's nominations will be seen as reward enough given who they nudged out to claim their spots. 

There's a lot of respect for what Lanthimos did with Poor Things, but not necessarily enough from the older skewing director's branch to take him over the finish line. Once an early favorite, Scorsese's chances basically evaporated when KOTFM didn't get the rapturous reception most expected. Even those lukewarm on Oppenheimer can't deny Nolan's directorial achievement, or the fact he's probably overdue. This is his to lose, but he won't. 

BEST PICTURE
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

In a year with this obvious a frontrunner the futility of having ten nominees really stands out. Poor Things and American Fiction have done respectably while KOTFM's recent decline is steep enough to actually affect Gladstone's chances. Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives and The Zone of Interest each have their fans, but only Fall seems noteworthy for having that Triet nomination. Barbie's snubs in other categories damaged its viability in the big races, the underrated Maestro got a bad rap all season, and The Holdovers' best shot at gold remains with Randolph and possibly Giamatti.  

Every nominee has either lost momentum or held steady, with one notable exception. Oppenheimer has been running through the competition with shows no signs of slowing down, picking up every precursor while still being discussed and analyzed as if it came out yesterday. Audiences and critics love it and as a historical biography with timely resonance, its win is a foregone conclusion, giving Nolan matching Best Picture and Director statues.