2023 Oscar Predictions

You hear it all the time. "If so and so wins Best Picture, it's the end of the Oscars." For whatever reason, statements like that seem to have become more prevalent in the past five years, regardless of what's favored to win. But if we can be certain about anything, it's that the Academy Awards have been around for almost a century and will continue to air somewhere no matter how many people complain or the depths to which the telecast's viewership numbers sink. So if frontrunner Everything, Everywhere All at Once has drawn the ire of those deeming it unworthy of 11 nominations, it's important to remember how often we've been down this road, and will be again.

The Oscars will be fine and no one should be spiraling into madness over something they emphatically claim to care nothing about. But that's the catch, isn't it? We do care because it's good to see quality work recognized and rewarded, even while sometimes vehemently disagreeing with the Academy's definition of that. Yes, the telecast itself is often a slog, with too many Best Picture nominees, show catastrophes like on stage assaults, wrong winners being read and favorites getting snubbed, but it's still the Oscars and that always counts for something. Plus it looks like we'll actually have a host this year.

As nice as it would be nice for the actual movies to make headlines for a change, I don't subscribe to the theory that films should rack up trophies for getting people into theaters again or "saving the moviegoing experience." If an insanely popular title like Top Gun: Maverick was to win the big prize, it should do so on creative merit, but we know how this works by now, as a vote can often say more about the tastes and proclivities of who's casting it than the movie itself. The good news is that the Academy rarely nominates garbage, clearing an admittedly low bar other awards bodies frequently don't.

With a much harder field to predict than usual, replicating my 23/24 score from last year feels like an impossibility with this many key races still up in the air, especially Best Actor and Supporting Actress,  which are close enough to be decided by a coin flip. It's worth noting this is the first year in some time (maybe ever) that I've seen the majority of films and performances nominated. That still may not help, but it's nice to be able to chime in with a "should win" for a change. Below are the predictions, along with some depth analysis for the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to change any picks until the start of the show.  

*Predicted Winners 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) 

BEST FILM EDITING
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Tár (Monika Willi)

BEST SOUND
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet on the Western Front (Christian M. Goldbeck & Ernestine Hipper)
Elvis (Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Bev Dunn)
Babylon (Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter & Vanessa Cole)
The Fabelmans (Rick Carter & Karen O’Hara)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth Carter)
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams) 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lift Me Up, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems)
"Hold My Hand," Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga & BloodPop)
"Naatu Naatu," RRR (M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose)
"Applause," Tell It Like a Woman (Diane Warren)
“This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (Ryan Lott, David Byrne & Mitski) 

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet on the Western Front 
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Livng (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Top Gun: Maverick (Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Peter Craig & Justin Marks)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley) 

Both All Quiet and Top Gun are action oriented, director-driven vehicles more powered by action and visuals than words. Still, the nine nominations accumulated by the former means it can't completely be discounted from pulling off an upset. Glass Onion is a further reach, as Rian Johnson's admittedly well constructed script just doesn't have enough heft or consensus appeal to make it a threat here, especially against these heavier hitting nominees.Voters would go for Living, if only anyone noticed or remembered it's been nominated. So in a surprisingly thin field, it's not hard to see how Sarah Polley's Women Talking would have the edge given the source material's literary pedigree its surprise Best Picture nod. I'll consider this a make-up win for Polley, whose best film, the unnominated Take This Waltz, deserved to clean up over a decade ago.  

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Tár (Todd Field)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)

This one's far more interesting and competitive, as the category's stacked with all Best Picture nominees. You'd figure this would favor EEAAO, and it does, but none of the others can be counted out, except maybe Triangle of Sadness. Banshees could take this since McDonagh is a stalwart here, having previously earned nominations for In Bruges and Three Billboards, but there's this nagging feeling the film may have peaked too early. Tár is foremost a directing and acting achievement while The Fabelmans could earn serious points for Kushner and Spielberg's ability to shape and mold the latter's life into a cohesive screenplay that does the legendary director's early life justice. But we know where all the momentum is and should brace ourselves for this being one of many EEAAO wins.        

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

What was that about a coin toss? In a category that always carries some degree of unpredictability each year, this race is unusually tight. Whenever it's down to two, there's a good chance anything can happen, including a splitting of votes that allows a deserving underdog like Banshees' Kerry Condon to sneak in, especially given her recent BAFTA victory. And while the temptation's there to dismiss The Whale's Hong Chau, anything's possible. Unfortunately, my preferred choice of Stephanie Hsu seems unlikelier, which is a shame since a strong argument can be made she's the heart and soul of EEAAO rather than co-star Jamie Lee Curtis, who steps way outside the box as quirky IRS auditor Dierdre Beaubierdre. 

Fresh off a SAG win, Curtis has momentum, industry wide likeability and would give a terrific speech that gets people talking the next day. But if it's a career award then Angela Bassett seems just as worthy for her role as Queen Ramonda in Wakanda Forever, making her the first Oscar winner in an MCU film. You could even argue she should already have a trophy for either What's Love Got To Do With It or Strange Days. What this may come down to is a test of EEAAO's potential dominance and an early test of how smitten voters really are with it. Either Curtis carried by the tide or respect for Bassett wins out. Almost too close to call.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

The only true lock of the night. All these performances are impressive but there's only one actor here everyone's rooting for. This goes for critics, viewers, voters and probably even a few of his fellow nominees in this category. Watching Ke Huy Quan rush the stage to accept his Oscar go down as one of those special awards moments played on endless repeat for years to come. The only thing capable of topping it should be the speech, since there's little doubt The Goonies and Temple of Doom star will be thanking a certain nominated director sitting in the front row. It says a lot that even those who don't care for EEAAO still agree he's the best part of the film and completely deserves this.

Kerry Condon is more likely to nab supporting honors for Banshees than either Gleeson or Keoghan, who will probably cancel each other out. In a different era, Judd Hirsch would win for sentimental reasons, but as memorable as his Fabelmans performance is, many believe the role is just too small for him to upset. And for my money, David Lynch was even better in the film, with even less screen time. Bryan Tyree Henry's surprise inclusion for Causeway will be looked at as reward enough. No one other than Quan has a shot.  

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

A two-horse race if there ever was one. We've gotten to the point where the backlash to the backlash regarding Andrea Riseborough's unusual campaign has actually improved her chances, but there's a big difference in getting the necessary number of votes to be nominated and having enough to actually win. My hunch is she'll fall short, despite giving a career best performance in To Leslie deserving of the attention it's gotten. That Ana de Armas defied the odds in getting nominated for her fearless Marilyn Monroe portrayal in the widely reviled Blonde speaks to her talent and the fact she'll probably be here again. It's not "category fraud" if you place yourself in a tougher race, which is what Michelle Williams did, possibly costing herself a supporting trophy. It's looking like we'll have to wait a little longer to see the five-time nominee referred to as an Academy Award winner, a designation she's deserved for a while now.  

Even while trading precursor wins with EEAAO's Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett was still thought to have this in the bag for her complex tour de force as icy classical conductor Lydia Tár. It's a career high performance made for Oscar, but Yeoh has suddenly surged and now the only question left is if voters think two-time winner Blanchett's been honored enough and are willing to overlook one of the more acclaimed acting turns of recent times by the industry's most respected actress. But it looks like that's exactly what could happen, as the Academy has a chance to anoint a long underappreciated talent in a movie most voters seem to really love. A Blanchett loss may not age that well, but then again, few could claim Yeoh isn't at the least the next strongest choice.   

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)

It's really hard not to get flashbacks to 2014 Oscars when Michael Keaton's likely comeback win for Birdman was derailed by eventual victor Eddie Redmayne, who reaped the benefits of playing real life figure Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. It's almost become a long running joke how heavily the Academy favors biographical performances, with Rami Malek's take on Freddie Mercury being the most recent example. This could spell trouble for The Whale's Brendan Fraser considering Austin Butler not only physically transforms himself into the King of Rock and Roll, but actually does a lot of his own singing, a rarity in the musical biopic genre. And despite a recent SAG win and continued momentum, it's possible voters feel honoring one comeback is enough with Fraser's Encino Man co-star Ke Huy Quan. 

Working against Butler is that he'd be one of the youngest winners ever and Fraser's empathic performance as the lonely, morbidly obese Charlie is as undeniable as the actor's personal story. This is the tightest race, making the remaining contenders an afterthought. Farrell's heat is gone, Paul Mescal's turn and film feel too small for the win and Living's Bill Nighy might be the least visible nominee in years. As painful as it is to admit, the chances of them rewarding Fraser has dwindled slightly, making it entirely possible the Academy passes over my favorite male performance of 2022 to fall back on their old habits. Butler's great in a film seen and liked by far more, and has a Best Picture nomination, even if it's still difficult to envision him onstage knowing how the Oscars favor experience over youth. Still, The Whale's lack of prominence or broad support in other categories is a red flag. This is close enough to result in a historic tie, but no one's crazy enough to predict that.              

BEST DIRECTOR
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Todd Field (Tár)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

That fleeting period when this race seemed up in the air ended, since becoming an inevitability that the Daniels will bring it home. Is an upset possible? Sure, but this is one of the few categories you can comfortably check off without a second thought because it just makes sense. EEAAO is the movie voters like the most and a lot of that can be attributed their direction. Plus, they just won the DGA and have been front and center this whole time, likably promoting the film as if their lives depended on it.

The Daniels somehow losing would be a shock because there's just no reasonable alternative, save for maybe Spielberg, due to his legacy and the fact that The Fabelmans is his best in a long time. Five years ago he'd probably win, but the landscape has drastically changed and a bigger audience for it could have helped. If we're technically talking about the best directed effort then Todd Field triumphs, but it's hard to remember the last time the Academy rewarded that. It's a miracle Triangle of Sadness's Ruben Östlund got in and McDonagh has a better chance at Banshees love in the screenplay category. Mark another one down for EEAAO, as Picture and Director are shaping up to match again.        

BEST PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

The year's sleeper, All Quite on the Western Front, has made up a lot of ground, but it winning would be an unprecedented upset at the level of Crash or Moonlight considering how it lacks both directing and editing nods. Avatar: The Way of Water is here because there are ten slots, it's just good enough and made a lot of money. Aside from a strong showing at the BAFTAs, Banshees has been losing steam over the past month, making a victory in any major race a real long shot. If vote tallies were ever revealed to the public, we'd probably all be surprised just how well Elvis did, but it's still all about Butler's performance. 

In another decade The Fabelmans wins Best Picture, as it's just the kind of traditionally well made, coming-of-age story that voters always drooled over. While that's not as true now, it's still one of Spielberg's weirder, more strangely compelling recent works and I'm glad we got it. Tár is brilliant, but a critic's film, too cold and complex for Academy tastes. Top Gun: Maverick is its polar exact opposite, a crowd thrilling spectacle done right that raked in tons of money for the industry, but even its biggest boosters admit it's a superb fast food meal you don't give a second thought to after the credits roll.

Triangle of Sadness would be this year's head-scratching inclusion if not for the presence of Women Talking, which takes a spot that could have belonged to Babylon, The Whale or any other number of films I loved this year that everyone else despised. With PGA, DGA, SAG and WGA guild wins, it's pretty much a cakewalk for EEAAO, which should successfully convert on a decent amount of its 11 nominations, driving the film's most vocal opponents up the wall. They'll be in for a long night.