2013 Oscar Predictions

Below are my predictions for the 85th Annual Academy Awards (oops, I meant "THE OSCARS"). If you caught my recent Oscar preview appearance on Dennis Has a Podcast you already have some idea as to which way I'm leaning in the major categories, but there's a good chance I'll still be fiddling with many of these picks right up until the last moment. If I could have one wish for the night it would be that Silver Linings Playbook pulls a Crash and shockingly beats frontrunner Argo for Best Picture, as unlikely as that seems at this point. And as far as potential disappointments, they wouldn't get much bigger than the deserving Jennifer Lawrence somehow not walking away with Best Actress. It's tough remembering when we've had a race where so many categories were still up in there and the possibility for major upsets this great. If that, a wildcard host, and the fact we have the highest grossing slate of Best Picture nominees of all-time, can't translate into an entertaining, highly rated broadcast, then the Oscars have far bigger problems than we originally thought. This is one to watch for sure. 

*Predicted Winners

Best Picture
"Beasts of the Southern Wild"
"Silver Linings Playbook"
"Zero Dark Thirty"
"Lincoln"
"Les Miserables"
"Life of Pi"
"Amour"
"Django Unchained"
"Argo"

Directing
David O. Russell - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Ang Lee - "Life of Pi"
Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln"
Michael Haneke - "Amour"
Benh Zeitlin - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln"
Denzel Washington - "Flight"
Hugh Jackman - "Les Miserables"
Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master"

Actor in a Supporting Role
Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook"
Alan Arkin - "Argo"
Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln"

Actress in a Leading Role
Naomi Watts - "The Impossible"
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"
Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Emmanuelle Riva - "Amour"
Quvenzhane Wallis - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"
Jacki Weaver - "Silver Linings Playbook"
Helen Hunt - "The Sessions"
Amy Adams - "The Master"
  
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
"Argo" - screenplay by Chris Terrio
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" - screenplay by Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
"Life of Pi" - screenplay by David Magee
"Lincoln" - screenplay by Tony Kushner
"Silver Linings Playbook" - screenplay by David O. Russell

Writing (Original Screenplay)
"Amour" - written by Michael Haneke
"Django Unchained" - written by Quentin Tarantino
"Flight" - written by John Gatins
"Moonrise Kingdom" - written by Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
"Zero Dark Thirty" - written by Mark Boal

Animated Feature Film
"Brave" - Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
"FrankenWeenie" - Tim Burton
"Paranorman" - Sam Fell and Chris Butler
"The Pirates! Band of Misfits" - Peter Lord
"Wreck-it Ralph" - Rich Moore

Cinematography
"Anna Karenina" - Seamus McGarvey
"Django Unchained" - Robert Richardson
"Life of Pi" - Robert Richardson
"Lincoln" - Janusz Kaminski
"Skyfall" - Roger Deakins

Costume Design
"Anna Karenina" - Jacqueline Durran
"Les Miserables" - Paco Delgado
"Lincoln" - Joanna Johnston
"Mirror Mirror" - Eiko Oshioka
"Snow White and the Huntsman" - Colleen Atwood

Documentary (Feature)
"5 Broken Cameras" - Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
"The Gatekeepers" - Dror Moreh, Philippa Kowarsky and Estelle Fialon
"How To Survive A Plague" - David France and Howard Gertler
"The Invisible War" - Kirby Dick and Amy Ziering
"Searching For Sugar Man" - Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn

Documentary (Short Subject)
"Inocente" - Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
"Kings Point" - Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
"Mondays at Racine" - Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
"Open Heart" - Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
"Redemption" - Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill

Film Editing
"Argo" - William Goldenberg
"Life of Pi" - Tim Squyres
"Lincoln" - Michael Kahn
"Silver Linings Playbook" - Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
"Zero Dark Thirty" - Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Foreign Language Film
"Amour" (Austria)
"Kon-tiki" (Norway)
"No" (Chile)
"A Royal Affair" (Denmark)
"War Witch" (Canada)

Makeup
"Hitchcock" - Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" - Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
"Les Miserables" - Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Music (Original Score)
"Anna Karenina" - Dario Marianelli
"Argo" - Alexandre Desplat
"Life of Pi" - Mychael Danna
"Lincoln" - John Williams
"Skyfall" - Thomas Newman

Music (Original Song)
"Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice" - music and lyric by J. Ralph
"Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted" - music by Walter Murphy, lyric by Seth MacFarlane
"Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi" - music by Mychael Danna, lyric by Bombay Jayashri
"Skyfall" from "Skyfall" - music and lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
"Suddenly" - "Les Miserables" - music by Claude-Michel Schonbergm, lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Production Design
"Anna Karenina" - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" - Production Design: Dan Hennah, Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
"Les Miserables" - Production Design: Eve Stewart, Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
"Life of Pi" - Production Design: David Gropman, Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
"Lincoln" - Production Design: Rick Carter, Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Short Film (Animated)
"Adam and Dog" - Minkyu Lee
Fresh Guacamole" - PES
"Head Over Heels" - Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
"Maggie Simpson in 'The Longest Daycare'" - David Silverman
"Paperman" - John Kahrs

Short Film (Live Action)
"Asad" - Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
"Buzkashi Boys" - Sam French and Ariel Nasr
"Curfew" - Shawn Christensen
"Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw) - Tom van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
"Henry" - Yan England

Sound Editing
"Argo" - Erik Aadahl and Ethan van der Ryn
"Django Unchained" - Wylie Stateman
"Life of Pi" - Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
"Skyfall" - Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
"Zero Dark Thirty" - Paul N.J. Ottosson

Sound Mixing
"Argo" - John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
"Les Miserables" - Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
"Life of Pi" - Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
"Lincoln" - Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
"Skyfall" - Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Visual Effects
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" - Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
"Life of Pi" - Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
"The Avengers" - Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
"Prometheus" - Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
"Snow White and the Huntsman" - Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
 

Ranking The Alternative Best Picture Oscar Posters (Worst to First)

Well, this was a surprise. In what might be the coolest, hippest thing the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have done in years (admittedly not saying much I know), they've teamed up with Gallery 1988 and commissioned some of today's most talented pop-culture artists to design limited addition screen prints for each of this year's nine Best Picture nominees. And it figures they're about ten times better than any of the official posters released for these films, not to mention far superior to much of what I singled out in my annual Best Posters list. While the artists achieve varying degrees of success with these prints, it's indisputable all them do a fine job capturing the spirit of these films as stylishly and simplistically as possible. If looking at these doesn't at least get you mildly interested in checking out this Sunday's nominees, it's likely nothing will. It's just a shame that none of them are for sale, unless you happened to show up at their L.A. gallery earlier in the month and grabbed one. Of course, this could change, and if it does, I know exactly which print I'm picking up. Remember, I'm ranking the posters, not the nominees (though you couldn't be blamed for being slightly suspicious when I get to a certain selection). So, here they are, along with my comments on each.

9.  Lincoln by Jeff Boyes
To be totally honest, there's not much you can do with Lincoln. That said, Boyes does about as good a job as could have been expected given the circumstances. Does it look nice? Yes. Would I hang it on my wall? Probably not. In fact, this might be the only case where I slightly prefer the original theatrical one-sheet (albeit slightly). The two-faced red and blue is a nice touch though, giving the image of our 16th President a complexity many still claim the film lacks.

8. Les Miserables by Phantom City Creative
Another tough one. The possibilities aren't exactly endless when you're handed the task of designing a poster for Les Mis. Or maybe they' are since there's so much going on and so many characters it's a chore deciding what exactly to represent. Taking the path of extreme minimalism was the right choice. The blood, eyes and flag is a cool design for sure. It grows on me the more I look at it.

7.  Amour by Matt Owen
I have a feeling that when I eventually see Amour my appreciation for this will probably grow considerably. Hardly knowing much about the film, I still kind of really like what Owen did here. It looks like a cross between a Wes Anderson DVD cover and a painting you'd find hanging in someone's study. There's something that's just beautifully simplistic about it. And don't underestimate the difficulty of having to design a poster for an over 2-hour foreign film centering around an elderly woman's death. 

6. Argo by Anthony Petrie
If nothing else, this addresses all those pesky complaints about Argo downplaying Canada's involvement in the rescue mission. Between the three flags, the shredded paper and the really neat shadowy silhouettes of the escapees running through Iran (on a film strip no less!), it's definitely an eye catcher. While I still have a nagging feeling something bigger could have been done (perhaps working in the sci-fi angle), I'm perfectly fine with this classy, relatively simple image representing the year's likely Best Picture winner.

5. Django Unchained by Mark Englert
Yeah, I know. This doesn't exactly capture the "spirit" or bloodshed of Quentin Tarantino, but don't we have enough of those kinds of posters anyway? I'm actually glad they didn't take the grindhouse exploitation route and instead picked an artist whose very style is the antithesis of what Tarantino's work represents. That contrast makes for an unforgettable print. This could be an alternate poster for a classic western like The Searchers or The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance, and while it's kind of a misrepresentation of the movie, you can't tell me it isn't an incredible piece of landscape art that would look good on any wall.

4. Life of Pi by Tom Whalen
Upon first laying eyes on this I really didn't care for it at all, but upon closer inspection it starts to become clear what Whalen was going for. And once you're on board (no pun intended) with that, then it's hard to stop staring at it. Here's another one where my appreciation for the details in the print would probably increase dramatically once I've actually seen the film. But I can say with absolute certainty it would look great hanging up with its interesting color scheme and the stain-glass style design. 

3. Zero Dark Thirty by Godmachine
Boy is this unusual. It almost looks like two entirely different prints combined as one. Zero Dark Thirty was always going to be a difficult movie to visually conceptualize in poster form so a lot of credit should go to the designers who found a way out by creating something that doesn't even slightly resemble a movie poster in any way, shape or form. It looks more like a splashy desktop background or wallpaper that's cut right down the middle. We even get a cloaked Maya and Bin Laden in nightglow green on the right and a re-creation of the movie's most memorable sequence on the left. I'm still not sure how it would look on a wall, but as a representation of Kathryn Bigelow's film, it's incredible.

2. Beasts of the Southern Wild by Rich Kelly
Here's another print that while not necessarily the most accurate depiction of the actual film from an marketing perspective (kind of making the movie look like a Gothic horror tale about the dangers of alcoholism), it's just too impressive a piece of abstract art to deny. So in that way it kind of does capture the film's spirit, which in a way defies description itself. I love the cluttered representation of the "Bathtub" in the middle, the barely visible Auroch behind Wink and of course that awesome reflection in the lake of he and Hushpuppy in the water. Wouldn't mind seeing this released in a variety of different colors just of curiosity, even though the green works really well.

1. Silver Linings Playbook by Joshua Budich
I've decided when and if Silver Linings Playbook loses Best Picture, I'm blaming its awful official theatrical poster, which was one of the many missteps made in unfairly marketing the best movie of the year as rom-com fluff. Luckily, those misconceptions have since been squashed as audiences are just recently discovering how powerful it really is, with its chances of a shocking upset on Sunday at least better than decent. Mental illness, running, romance, football, gambling, ballroom dancing. It's woven into an unforgettable tapestry in writer/director David O. Russell's comic masterpiece. And it's all captured in Joshua Budich's magnificent print which, as far as I'm concerned, stands as the film's true OFFICIAL poster.

Aside from the absolutely astounding comic-style artwork, just look at the details! The expressions on Robert DeNiro and Jacki Weaver's faces. The Eagle wings. The book thrown out the window. And Budich deserves major kudos for knowing just the right line to scribble at the bottom, quoting DeNiro's chill-inducing speech at the end of the film. Who ever thought we'd be this happy to see Chris Tucker?  I'll cop to some bias since it's my favorite film of the year designed by my favorite poster artist, but the work here really does speak for itself. If I could envision the quintessential SLP print, it would still fall short of this, as the most inventive Best Picture nominee is now deservedly rewarded with a poster worthy of it.

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Director: Ben Zeitlin
Starring: Quvenzhane Wallis, Dwight Henry, Levy Easterly, Gina Montana
Running Time: 93 min.
Rating: PG-13

★★★ (out of ★★★★)

It can sometimes be a a drag going into a film knowing it's a Best Picture nominee. Unless I'm completely shutting myself out from the news or internet before the actual viewing comes around, the story surrounding the movie is usually at risk of taking on a life of its own. It's easy to fall into the trap of assessing its worthiness for Oscars rather than analyzing what's on screen. The situation's even a little more extreme with Benh Zeitlin's borderline fantasy drama, Beasts of the Southern Wild since there's a built-in inspirational underdog story already attached. It's the director's first feature. It was made for next to nothing. It's about poverty. It stars non-professional actors. The protagonist is a little girl. The actress playing her is youngest ever Best Actress nominee. All these details would no doubt make for a feel-good documentary about the making of the movie, but at the end of the day none of that matters if the film rises to the occasion, as this mostly does. I wasn't sure where it was going at first using the shaky cam, documentary style approach, but it quickly gets where it needs to go, then soars for the remainder of its hour and a half, which seems to disappear in a flash. Zeitlin makes the absolute most of what he has, creating something that actually can be categorized as an experience.

Five-year old Hushpuppy (Quvenzhane Wallis) and her quick-tempered but physically ailing father Wink (Dwight Henry) are residents of the "Bathtub," an impoverished Louisiana bayou community facing an impending storm. In school, Hushpuppy is told stories of mythological, prehistoric creatures called Auruchs that were once frozen in the arctic but she imagines escaping from the melted ice caps and heading toward the Bathtub. With her father briefly missing, she's left to fend for herself, and accidentally starts a dangerous fire before he returns, angrier than ever, with his health rapidly worsening. With the storm baring down on the bayou and the threat of forced evacuation looming, Hushpuppy sets out to find her absent mother and come to terms with a new life that looks increasingly like it won't include her father.

The film's greatest success comes in its seamless ability to meld fantasy and reality, at points feeling like post-Katrina docudrama told through the prism of a child's imagination. Adding to the authenticity is the fictional location, which never for a second feels fictional. We don't doubt eroded an impoverished areas in the bayou just like this really exist and likely went a long way in providing the inspiration for the Bathtub. In fact, we know they do. While casting non-actors for any small or large-scale project is generally considered a huge risk, it fits just fine in this situation, a film that's shooting for complete, unrehearsed reality. And it's about time to dispel the ridiculous myth that voice-over narration is a lazy storytelling crutch despite the fact it's proven countless times how invaluable it can be when utilized properly. Wallis brings an innocent, natural curiosity to her Oscar nominated role that carries into her unforgettable delivery of the lyrical, almost poetic, narration of events that truly feel like they're being filtered through this child's perspective.

As surprising as it is that Wallis has never acted before, it might be the sturdy, volcanic presence of Dwight Henry that casts the largest shadow over the film. Their father-daughter relationship is an emotional rollercoaster, and for any (false) accusations that the somehow script paints poverty in a whimsical light, no one can claim this dynamic is in any way sugar-coated. He's really rough with her. Uncomfortably so. Yet we never lose sight of where he's coming from. That becomes even more apparent when the story shifts in its second act and the lives of the Bathtub's occupants are shaken up. They don't take kindly to anyone coming in and displacing them from their homes because it's theirs, no matter how hellish the living conditions.

Special mention should be made of composer Dan Romer and Zeitlin's moving score, which somehow wasn't nominated for an an Academy Award despite easily being the strongest aspect of the entire film. Chill-inducing from the second you hear the opening chords, it's one of those instantly recognizable pieces of music bound for a future of being played over trailers and video packages as everyone wonders which movie it came from.  Even those who don't quite grasp what exactly Zeitlin was aiming for here (and I'm still not completely sure I do) will have trouble denying there's some really impressive filmmaking at work and it'll be interesting to see him try to top himself going forward. Whether this holds up over time I'm a little less certain of, but then again, the the same could be said for just about anything. 

2013 Oscar Nominations (Reaction and Analysis)

Interestingly enough, I didn't attempt to predict the nominations this year, but I should have since it ended up being one of the safest and most predictable batch of nominees we've had in years. Announced this morning by Oscar host Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone, the 85th Annual Academy Award nominations (full list here) were only surprising for what was omitted. But given their history of head scratching snubs, do any of those decisions really surprise us anymore? You'd be forgiven for dozing off during the announcement which, save for the Best Director category shocker, doesn't off up much in the way of talking points. Lincoln racked up 12 nominations and, barring a huge upset, will be wining Best Picture. Spielberg's winning Best director. Daniel Day-Lewis is winning Best Actor. And you can write those down with a permanent magic marker. It's that kind of a year. I should probably bite my tongue now since I've only seen one of the Best Picture nominees so far, meaning there's a lot of work still left to do. That viewing these nominees could be considered "work" probably isn't a good sign, nor is it one that I've been trying to motivate myself to see Lincoln and Les Miserables for the past three weeks...unsuccessfully. Django Unchained, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty are a different story, though at this point all seem to stand little chance of stopping the Lincoln juggernaut and winning the big prize. I'm all for conventional, conservative choices if it means rewarding deserving films of quality (which, in their defense, the Academy always does) but boy did they really take the "safety first" approach to new heights this year. But there were still at least some noteworthy items coming out of the nominations this morning:

 -Nine Best Picture nominees. The second year in a row we've had that number. The two "surprises" are Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour but upon closer examination both do fit firmly within the Academy's wheelhouse. Same for Life of Pi, which likely pushed all the right emotional buttons for them.

-Ben Affleck SNUBBED for Best Director. God, that is a shock. If there was one element of the film that should have been a lock to be nominated it was Affleck's direction. Really strange. There's just no explanation/excuse for it.

-Kathryn Bigelow SNUBBED for Best Director. Well, here there's at least somewhat of an explanation. It's because she's a woman! Just kidding. It was the torture stuff. Leave up to the Academy to make their decisions based on news headlines rather than the actual work.

-Quentin Tarantino SNUBBED for Best Director. When you're as polarizing a figure as Tarantino is it's difficult to classify this as a snub. It's more like something that just comes with the territory. On the bright side, Django got in for Best Picture and that was far from a lock.

-Nine Best Picture nominees. The second year in a row we've had that number. The two "surprises" are Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour but upon closer examination both do fit firmly within the Academy's wheelhouse. Same for Life of Pi, which likely pushed all the right emotional buttons for them.

-Hugh Jackman gets his first Best Actor nomination for Les Miserables, proving that the Academy sometimes doesn't care how many critics trash a movie or performance if they really, really LOVE it. That was clearly the case here.


-If Alan Arkin's supporting actor nomination for showing up for a couple of minutes and grumpily delivering a few lines isn't proof enough the Academy votes for the actors they like and not the actual performances, I don't know what is.

-Christoph Waltz, NOT Leonardo DiCaprio, is nominated in supporting for Django Unchained.

-Anne Hathaway's acceptance speech is probably already written. That one's over.   

-Silver Linings Playbook gets a second wind with nominations for Picture, Director (David O' Russell), Actor (Bradley Cooper), Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro) and most surprisingly, Supporting Actress (Jacki Weaver). This film's fortunes just turned around in a hurry. Party at Jeff Wells' house!

-Academy Award nominated actor Bradley Cooper. Let it sink in. 

-Was I the only one worried Joaquin Phoenix wouldn't make it in for Best Actor? Luckily, he did. Philip Seymour Hoffman and Amy Adams are in for Supporting as well. 

-If the nominations tell us anything it's that the surest path to being nominated is having been previously nominated.

-Beasts of the Southern Wild seems to be that little movie this year that everyone bangs the drum hard for as the underdog to the point that it gets willed to a Best Picture nomination. Then it doesn't feel so little anymore. Or like an underdog.

-Quvenzhané Wallis is the youngest actress ever nominated in the LEAD category. I wonder how Haley Joel Osment and Hailee Steinfeld,--both previous nominees thrown into supporting categories because of their ages-- feel about that.  

-Even though I knew it wouldn't happen, I was hoping for a Looper Original Screenplay or Emily Blunt Supporting Actress nomination. But there was no chance.

-No Moonrise Kingdom in anything except Original Screenplay. We all kind of saw that coming whether we wanted to admit it or not. Wes Anderson's films are just too far off the beaten path to ever secure a Best Picture nod from this stuffy group. He wouldn't be wrong to take it as a compliment. The same can be said, but doubled this year, for Paul Thomas Anderson, as The Master predictably got the shaft (save for the acting categories).

-No John Hawkes for Best Actor for The Sessions. A curious omission considering the nature of the part and the fact that he was at one point considered a front-runner to actually win this thing. Bizarre. That movie apparently lost a lot of steam.

-For some reason I fully expected Helen Mirren to be nominated for Hitchcock despite the film's lackluster reception, but was strangely pleased she wasn't. Mildly surprised Naomi Watts got in for The Impossible.

-Best Actress is shaping up to turn into a showdown between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Having not even seen either performance yet I still feel comfortable calling that the most intriguing race of the night by a landslide. All the other outcomes feel pre-determined. This doesn't. It's the one worth watching.