It should be said that as negative as I get sometimes and how I bitch and complain about the Academy at least they (unlike something like the Grammys) do honor works of genuine quality and get more people to see what could have been overlooked films. I was surprised these past two weeks when I finally got to see some of the nominated films and performances that they really were Oscar-worthy. So despite my relatively minor complaints on certain exclusions I'm really looking forward to tomorrow's show. I should be back with my thoughts on the show on Monday.
Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Who's Gonna Win? Daniel Day-Lewis
Analysis:
It's a miracle Tommy Lee Jones was even nominated for a movie few people saw and even fewer liked. I heard he was outstanding in it so good for him. Depp has an Oscar coming his way eventually but not this year. He could have won if you know who wasn't in the running. Mortensen deserves to be here but Eastern Promises wasn't enthusiastically received enough and isn't in the forefront of Oscar voters' minds. This leaves us with Clooney and Lewis. It just isn't Clooney's time yet, but if there's a dark horse in the race it's him since he's picking up incredible speed in the final leg and the Academy loves him. It would be JUST LIKE THEM to do something as ridiculous as giving it to Clooney. But Lewis taking is about as close to a lock as you can get.
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
Who's gonna win? Javier Bardem
Analysis:
THIS IS A LOCK and you can fill out your ballot with a permanent magic marker. No one else in this category even has a chance against Bardem who has the awards momentum of a runaway train at this point for his sadistic turn in No Country For Old Men. Affleck's turn is too subdued and nuanced for the Academy. And how many could actually sit through the film? Holbrook has the best chance here for an upset just out of sentimentality but it won't happen. Wilkinson has the unfortunate luck of giving this performance the same year as Bardem's. It shows how much the Academy loves Hoffman that he was even nominated for Charlie Wilson's War but just about everyone in the Kodak Theater has a better chance of taking home gold on Oscar night than he does.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
Who's Gonna Win? Julie Christie
Analysis:
Marion…who? In what? I'm sure it's a great performance but I doubt enough voters saw it. Laura Linney is one of the very best actresses working today but The Savages made a meager showing at the box office and didn't exactly clean up during awards season. Blanchett is taking home gold but not in this category. That she was nominated for such a terribly reviewed film (a sequel no less!) proves one thing…that she's Cate Blanchett. This race is actually VERY close between Page and Christie. Page should have already won an Oscar last year for her incredible performance in Hard Candy, but Academy sentiment rests with Julie Christie for her emotional portrayal of an Alzheimer's sufferer in Away From Her. With Page I expect voters to fall back on their silly reasoning that she's "YOUNG AND STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME." We see how well that worked out for Peter O' Toole. Let's hope the only time we see her at the podium isn't accepting an honorary Oscar when she's 80. But if Juno doesn't win Best Picture voters may want to reward its star and the temptation of the precocious Page giving an acceptance speech may be too much for them to resist. I'm marking down Julie Christie, but using a pencil.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
Who's Gonna Win? Cate Blanchett
Analysis:
Ruby Dee was in American Gangster for 30 seconds. That nomination is a joke. The term "It's a thrill just to be nominated" really does apply to Atonement's Saoirse Ronan. Amy Ryan has a chance in a category famous for upsets but I don't think voters will grasp just how good that performance was in one viewing. And who's to say they even saw any of these films once, much less twice? Tilda Swinton has a very good chance here, but the Academy is in love with Blanchett. She could just stand there and read the phone book and they'd give her an Oscar. It's hard to take this win seriously if it happens though because you know even if she just merely mimicked Dylan poorly (which I heard she didn't) the Academy would still fall all over themselves praising her brilliance.
Best Director:
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Who's Gonna Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Analysis:
As fun as it is to say Julian Schnabel's last name out loud there's no way he'll be announced as the winner since his film isn't nominated for Best Picture. Most are surprised Reitman was nominated and probably even more so with Gilroy. With Anderson the Academy is probably thinking (or not thinking) once again that he's "YOUNG AND STILL HAS PLENTY OF TIME." The Best Director and Picture winners usually but not always match so if the Coens somehow lose in this category it could be open season for Best Picture. That's something to look out for during the show.
Best Picture
"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
What Will Win? No Country For Old Men
Analysis:
Atonement's director, Joe Wright wasn't even nominated so that's out. As for Michael Clayton, when was the last time a legal thriller won Best Picture? I've yet to see it but everyone keeps telling There Will Be Blood is pretty much one of the best motion pictures they've seen in their lifetime. You have to wonder, then, if years later its defeat in this category at the hands of No Country For Old Men will be viewed as one of the great Oscar injustices. Juno benefits from being the lightest and most accessible film here and if voters are in an uplifting mood there could be an upset. Not likely though since backlash against the film has reached a fever pitch lately. No Country takes it.
Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Brad Bird, "Ratatouille"
Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
Who's Gonna Win? Diablo Cody
Analysis:
When I reviewed Ratatouille I said I really hoped it gets an original screenplay nomination. Shockingly it did so thank you Academy. An animated film would never win in this category though. Lars and the Real Girl and The Savages have underperformed and are under the radar. Tony Gilroy's workmanlike script for Michael Clayton has the second best chance, but this is the one sure bet for Juno. If her interviews are any indication Cody is the leading candidate to give the most entertaining acceptance speech of the night. Everyone should be prepared to wake up to a very angry internet Monday morning.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton, "Atonement"
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her"
Ronald Harwood, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, "No Country For Old Men"
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Who's Gonna Win? Joel and Ethan Coen
Analysis:
Some impressive literary adaptations here but handicapping the winner is easy if you just go in descending order as far as their chances for also winning Best Picture, for which Away From Her and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly aren't even nominated. Their screenplays therefore can't compete against the three heavy-hitters. The Coen Brothers' adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's crackling novel is the frontrunner but PTA's There Will Be Blood isn't far behind. If Anderson takes this No Country has to watch its back for the rest of the night. Let me say though that even though the film was shut out of every single category I can't believe the Academy didn't AT LEAST nominate James Vanderbilt's script for Zodiac. I can kind of come to terms with it being overlooked in huge categories because it was a packed year but that they couldn't just throw it a bone here or in the cinematography category for Harris Savides' incredible work is an outrage.
The Other Categories:
Best Animated Film: "Ratatouille"
Best Art direction: "Atonement"
Best Cinematography: "No Country For Old Men"
Best Costume Design: "Sweeney Todd"
Best Documentary Feature: "No End In Sight"
Best Documentary Short Subject: "Sari's Mother"
Best Film Editing: "No Country For Old Men"
Best Foreign Language Film: "The Counterfeiters"
Best Makeup: "La Vie En Rose"
Best Original Score: "Atonement"
Best Original Song: "Falling Slowly" ("Once")
Best Animated Short Film: "I Met The Walrus"
Best Live Action Short Film: "The Mozart of Pickpockets"
Best Sound Editing: "No Country For Old Men"
Best Sound Mixing: "No Country For Old Men"
Best Visual Effects: "Transformers
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