Burning Questions from the 2022 Oscars

Are the red carpet interviewers part of ABC's master plan to finally reach that younger demo for the show?

Judging from the opening, is the new strategy to turn this into the Grammys?

Was that a lot of green or what?

Should we just be grateful they didn't predictably start with a hosts making a silly entrance?

Do you remember hearing Beyonce's original song from King Richard before now? 

Are 3 hosts too many?

Didn't they have to address the category cutting controversy?

When are we going to find out who won Editing? 

Were you worried each host would have their own monologue?

Wasn't Amy Schumer's Don't Look Up jab pretty great?

Wasn't it completely true what she said about Sorkin somehow being able to make an unfunny movie about Lucille Ball?

Have we just found out where all this 'extra time' is going on the show?  

Was DeBose's win such a foregone conclusion that she didn't even seem surprised?

Did Regina Hall sell the hell out of that COVID testing gag or what?

So, guessing it's okay to joke about that now? 

What's Chamalet wearing?

Did anyone know it was the 30th Anniversary of White Men Can't Jump?

Feel old yet?

If not, will you by the time the show's over? 

Has the Dune technical sweep began?

Could they breeze by that Documentary Short announcement any faster?

But didn't it probably get more time than we expected?

True to her word, wasn't it cool Jessica Chastain attended that pre-taped ceremony? 

Were you waiting for security to escort the uninvited Rachel Zegler out of the building?

Did her bad week continue when she had to present with someone 15 feet taller than her?

Are you still in disbelief that Lily James played Pamela Anderson?

Does everyone remember where they were when...The Flash entered the speed force?

Didn't Dreamgirls seem really, really out of place on that superhero heavy list? 

Wasn't Wanda Sykes' segment with the great Tim Bagley at the Academy Museum by far the best skit of the night?

Where was the Flash entering the speed force exhibit?

How about Wanda's reaction to Hattie McDaniel's missing Oscar?

Did you immediately get chills from Youn Yuh-jung's reaction to Troy Kotsur's win?

And then that shot of the audience?

Between this and Dune's dominance, could things look any bleaker for The Power of the Dog? 

Isn't the music playing the winners up to the stage unusually good this year?

Hasn't the show been a lot more slickly produced than last year's debacle? 

How are we doing on time? 

Did Mila Kunis' speech mean we're not getting Zelensky?

Isn't that okay since he probably his hands full right now?

All things considered, aren't they handling the pre-taped awards segments fairly well?

Were you worried Dune would also win Costume Design and screw up everyone's predictions?

Weren't you relieved it didn't?

6 Oscars already for Dune?

Wanda Sykes as Richard Williams? 

Has Jennifer Garner aged in 15 years? 

Did you hear that ovation for Branagh's win?

Was that adapted screenplay loss to CODA the final nail in The Power of the Dog's coffin?

Isn't it kind of a miracle Minamata somehow finished third in the Oscar popular vote?

Was Rami Malek introducing that song in character as Lyutsifer Safin?

Didn't Billie Eilish's Bond theme sound better live than in the movie?

Did they just say "final exciting hour?"

Does that mean we're ending at 11:15?

Should I hold them to that?  

By that time, will Dune have won more Oscars than Titanic?

Must they announce a category winner the second after they return from break?

Isn't Ridley Scott just going to love Regina Hall's The Last Duel joke? 

Um, What the hell just happened with Will Smith and Chris Rock?

Wait, was that real?

Did Smith just open hand smack him across the face?

Over "G.I. Jane 2?" 

Does someone need to tell the Smiths that G.I. Jane features maybe the most badass bald woman in any movie?

Does this incident put the "Oscar streaker" to shame?

Was someone at ABC just instructed to sit on the censor button for 2 minutes straight?

Hasn't Smith taken this Richard Williams role a bit far? 

Should Williams now star in a movie about Smith?

Didn't you just know Chris Rock would make this show interesting and relevant again?

If that was staged, should both take home Oscars? 

Which was worse: The slap or look of smug satisfaction on Smith's face as he strutted off the stage?

Should someone tell him he's a week early for Wrestlemania?

Is it time to start worrying who they'll egregiously leave out of the In Memoriam montage?

Weren't there a huge amount of notable deaths this year? 

Wasn't that unusually upbeat music for an In Memoriam montage?  

Wasn't it a nice touch having Bill Murray and Jamie Lee Curtis appear?

Did they really omit Bob Saget?

If you thought the White Can't Jump Anniversary made you feel old, imagine how who those who grew up on The Godfather feel?

Has a year ever gone by when Diane Warren wasn't nominated for Original Song?

Not a question but...COSTNER! 

Did you see the audience hanging on his every word?  

Was Jane Campion mocking his heartfelt speech?

Well, at least The Power of the Dog won something...right?

Should Campion maybe avoid talking about the Williams sisters again during her acceptance speech?

At this point were you thinking that Will Smith's speech sure should be interesting?

28 years later, doesn't it still kind of sting that Pulp Fiction didn't win Best Picture? 

Were you expecting Will Smith to be tackled by security or police before reaching the podium?

A standing ovation...really?

Should Travolta and Jackson get ready to protect themselves? 

Can Smith's career ever recover from this?

Isn't that such a weird thing to say about someone who just won an Oscar?

Is he lucky that such a thing as consequences don't exist?

Should he be in jail instead of on that stage a second time?

And to think 24 hours ago the big concern was how "boring" the show could be?

Did Smith put to rest any lingering doubt that the incident could have been staged the second he got up there and started talking?

Was that the longest acceptance speech in Oscar history?

Did you notice they wouldn't dare play him off? 

Did all that early promise the show would end at a decent time just evaporate in front of our eyes?

Hopkins was right. Smith sure said it all, didn't he? And then some.

Hey, if they strip him of the Oscar will that compromise my near-perfect Oscar prediction score this year?

Wasn't it the biggest relief to see Jessica Chastain up there after all that? 

Wasn't Gaga great in how she helped and guided Liza Minnelli?

Was CODA's Best Picture win completely overshadowed or what?

How about those Oscar ratings NOW? 

If this doesn't raise them, will anything?

Then again, 3 hours and 40 minutes?

Can Chris Rock host next year?

2022 Oscar Predictions

The good news first. If you're a fan and familiar with this year's nominees, there are some really tight races and compelling scenarios to weigh heading into Sunday's 94th Oscars. And it's basically a done deal that for the first time in the Academy's long and illustrious history that the coveted Best Picture prize will be won by a streaming service. The only question is which one, as that category has suddenly shaped into an extremely close two-horse race featuring a pair of films that couldn't be more diametrically opposed in approach, style and content. Add on top of that some eclectic acting nominations and it's sure to be an exciting predictions night for critics and prognosticators who religiously follow this. 

Now the bad news. The AMPAS still hasn't found a way to capture the zeitgeist or lure mainstream audiences to the show, whatever that means anymore. With theaters now exclusively reserved for the special attraction blockbusters and everything else going straight to streaming, we have another year of underseen nominees the general public couldn't care less about. And trying to shoehorn more popular titles onto the show for ratings by instituting a people's choice vote just puts a band-aid on what's become a far larger problem.

With ABC still recovering from the lingering hangover from last year's disaster, we've had a clumsy, last minute rollout of multiple hosts (after a three year streak of none) and a highly controversial decision to pre-tape 8 categories (including biggies like editing and costume design) as an intended time saver. Of course, whatever segments replace that are likely tell the tale of how bearable the show will be. Here's an idea: Don't proudly announce bad ideas anymore, work on having a good, tight telecast with one outside-of-the-box host and go back to five Best Picture nominees. I know, easier said than done. 

On the bright side, The Power of the Dog vs. CODA Best Picture showdown is a nail biter and having seen the majority of nominees before the show my prediction post this year has more of a "will win, should win" vibe to it. My predictions are listed below, along with a more in-depth analysis of the major categories. As usual, I'm reserving the right to make possible changes or adjustments before the telecast. But once show time comes around, that's it.  

*Predicted Winners  

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto (Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Luca (Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer
and Peter Del Vecho)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Affairs of the Art (Joanna Quinn and Les Mills)
Bestia (Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz)
Boxballet (Anton Dyakov)
Robin Robin (Dan Ojari and Mikey Please)
The Windshield Wiper (Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Ascension (Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell)
Attica (Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry)
Flee (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sorensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie)
Summer of Soul (Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein)
Writing With Fire (Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Audible (Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean)
Lead Me Home (Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk)
The Queen of Basketball (Ben Proudfoot)
Three Songs for Benazir (Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei)
When We Were Bullies (Jay Rosenblatt)

BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run (Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger)
The Dress (Tadeusz Lysiak and Maciej Ślesicki)
The Long Goodbye (Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed)
On My Mind (Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson)
Please Hold (K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

BEST FILM EDITING
Don’t Look Up (Hank Corwin)
Dune (Joe Walker)
King Richard (Pamela Martin)
The Power of the Dog (Peter Sciberras)
Tick, Tick … Boom! (Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum)

BEST SOUND
Belfast (Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri)
Dune (Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett)
No Time to Die (Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor)
The Power of the Dog (Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb)
West Side Story (Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune (production design: Patrice Vermette; set decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos)
Nightmare Alley (production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau)
The Power of the Dog (production design: Grant Major; set decoration: Amber Richards)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (production design: Stefan Dechant; set decoration: Nancy Haigh)
West Side Story (production design: Adam Stockhausen; set decoration: Rena DeAngelo)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella (Jenny Beavan)
Cyrano (Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran)
Dune (Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan)
Nightmare Alley (Luis Sequeira)
West Side Story (Paul Tazewell)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up (Nicholas Britell)
Dune (Hans Zimmer)
Encanto (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog (Jonny Greenwood)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” — music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (King Richard)
“Dos Oruguitas” — music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda (Encanto)
“Down to Joy” — music and lyrics by Van Morrison (Belfast)
“No Time to Die” — music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell (No Time to Die)
“Somehow You Do” — music and lyrics by Diane Warren (Four Good Days)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Coming 2 America (Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer)
Cruella (Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon)
Dune (Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr)
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh)
House of Gucci (Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune (Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer)
Free Guy (Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and
Dan Sudick)
No Time to Die (Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune (Greig Fraser)
Nightmare Alley (Dan Laustsen)
The Power of the Dog (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story (Janusz Kaminski)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA (screenplay by Siân Heder)
Drive My Car (screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth)
The Lost Daughter (written by Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (written by Jane Campion)

A surprisingly competitive category and one of the toughest to predict, mainly because it'll provide a major clue as to how Best Picture shakes out. CODA, fresh off a WGA win and riding a tidal wave of momentum, looks to take out The Power of the Dog here first and just might. As the only adapted screenplay without a corresponding BP nod, Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter has an uphill battle, as does Dune, which should be busy cleaning up in the technical categories. Drive My Car overperformed nomination-wise, so while still lacks in really broad appeal, a shocking upset isn't impossible. But it comes back to the big two, with the edge going to CODA, if only because the emotional consensus is starting to look unstoppable. Still, what Campion did with Thomas Savage's novel can't be discounted, nor can The Power of the Dog's precursor haul and sheer number of nominations. It's taken some hits lately but there's still a lot of respect left for it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast (written by Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (screenplay by Adam McKay; story by Adam McKay & David Sirota)
King Richard (written by Zach Baylin)
Licorice Pizza (written by Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Worst Person in the World (written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)

Another close race. Don't Look Up and The Worst Person in the World are filling out the category, but have no real shot. King Richard is definitely in a far better position to win than either, but Baylin's solid screenplay just hasn't been honored enough in other places to make me feel comfortable predicting that upset. It almost seems like years ago that Belfast was actually considered the Best Picture frontrunner, as it's been losing steam by the second heading into the final stretch. Can it still win here? Probably. Everyone seems to like Branagh and his charmer of a movie well enough that they'd want to reward it somewhere. PTA's Licorice Pizza script is coming on strong and has a surprising amount of support that could translate into votes, despite that nagging voice telling us "it's just not the Academy's thing." But despite it falling off the radar, I just can't see them sending Belfast home empty-handed.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)

Ariana DeBose has this in the bag. Voters love symmetry and there would be no better recent example than DeBose winning for the same role her West Side Story co-star Rita Moreno did in the 1961, marking an Oscar first. Ellis, Dench and Buckley all did commendable work in their films but they've basically become stepping stones on DeBose's path to the podium and a gold statue. But as impressive as she was in the film, it's not the best performance in this category, or even in West Side Story, as Rachel Zegler and Mike Faist could both lay claim to that.  

Whatever you may think of The Power of the Dog, Kirsten Dunst's transformative work in it isn't easy to shake and ranks among the best things she's done in her entire career. Of everyone, she's the strongest threat to DeBose and deserves the win, but this race was decided months ago. It's a lock, not to mention a way to reward a movie that financially underperformed, but definitely has its superfans within the Academy. Everyone who likes it, loves it, and she's a big reason why, locking up nearly every major accolade leading into the show, making her win a mere formality. While Supporting Actress is long known for upsets, there won't be one this year.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)

An intriguing field of contenders, but another foregone conclusion, as CODA's Troy Kotsur not only gave a great, film-stealing performance as Frank Rossi, but is just the kind of hard working journeyman the Academy loves rewarding, with an inspirational story to boot. That he'll be the second deaf actor (and first since co-star Marlee Matlin) to win an Academy Award has only become more apparent with each passing week as CODA continues to surge. As for the rest, Belfast's Ciarán Hinds feels like an outlier in a "thanks for coming" kind of way, which isn't a slight on his performance so much as a testament to how stiff the competition is. 

Former winner J.K. Simmons impresses as William Frawley in Being the Ricardos, but the role itself just doesn't seem like enough, especially next to The Power of the Dog's Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit McPhee's. Unfortunately for Plemons, his character disappears entirely in the last half of that picture whereas the latter has more of an arc and carries the film's most crucial portion as the shy, eccentric Peter Gordon. As the center of the biggest twist and darkness on which the entire story rests, McPhee takes us on a journey, albeit one that might prove too uncomfortable for voters. And in Oscar's universe, subtle complexity never reign supreme. It's Kotsur's to lose, but he won't, making for what should be one of the night's biggest moments.               

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)

The Academy's penchant for biopics and actresses portraying famous figures is on prominent display this year, with only Penelope Cruz and Olivia Colman playing fictitious characters in Parallel Mothers and The Lost Daughter, respectively. Cruz has a legitimate shot as a popular dark horse who many believe is the strongest contender on merit. It seems like Colman just won for The Favourite, but that's never stopped the Academy before (see Frances McDormand). An early frontrunner, Kidman lost ground when people actually saw her performance as Lucille Ball in Being The Ricardos and had wildly mixed reactions. 

Kristen Stewart is so, so good in Spencer and should probably be the hands down winner. What she did as Diana was endlessly intriguing and entirely unexpected, but the movie's just too off-putting for them, ranking as maybe the most un-commercial release of 2021. While I still wouldn't completely count Stewart out, Jessica Chastain's emerged as the clear favorite, reminding us that when voters assess performances as real life people, the biggest and flashiest often win the day. They want the most noticeable physical and emotional transformation and Chastain (as well as the film's makeup team) definitely provided it. Plus, she's overdue and beloved within the industry, all of which should have us wondering how we didn't foresee this outcome sooner. She checks every possible box, but it's still wide open. 

BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

Will Smith is the lock of the night. Most have forgotten Denzel's even in this category, Bardem's role is more skillfully charming than award-winning, Garfield willed himself to a well-deserved nod in the so-so Tick, Tick...Boom! In giving what's arguably the category's best performance as sociopathic cowboy Phil Burbank in The Power of the Dog, Cumberbatch seemed like a viable pick months or even weeks ago until Smith started winning literally everything in sight. Dog's stock has dropped so much recently, it's now become a question whether it can cash-in on even one of its staggering 11 nominations anymore. 

Smith's performance as Richard Williams contains the hallmarks of what voters trip all over themselves to reward. Not to mention he's really good in it, navigating some tricky territory in playing the complicated (to say the least), but aspirational father and coach to daughters and future tennis superstars Venus and Serena. There's a reason Smith was earmarked from the jump to win for King Richard and his actual performance only reinforced that, exceeding the hype. We also have another long overdue actor who's universally liked, only making this that much easier a decision for them.          

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story) 

So maybe it's not Sam Elliott's favorite film of the year, but a lot of people still really like (respectfully appreciate?) what Jane Campion did with The Power of the Dog. If that's the case, this category will be the ultimate test of how much goodwill it's retained over the past two months. If Campion somehow loses, Netflix can pack its bags, and even if she wins, there could still be a split with Director and Picture anyway. This field's a little more open than you'd think since Spielberg's visual contributions to West Side Story can't be undersold, Hamaguchi could still shock and Branagh is Branagh, which never hurts, even if Belfast peaked way too early. 

The only contender I can't envision them rewarding here is PTA, which is probably a compliment considering that (along with David Fincher) he's one of the greatest living filmmakers without a directing Oscar. He'll eventually win, just not for Licorice Pizza. Campion's still got this, even if it's  way closer than anyone previously thought. Of The Power of the Dog's 12 nods, this is the one you can feel safest predicting will fall in its favor, with career acknowledgment coming for an overdue Campion. It's good news for her that CODA directed itself or we might be having an entirely different conversation right now. 

BEST PICTURE
Belfast (Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers)
CODA (Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)
Drive My Car (Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer)
Dune (Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers)
King Richard (Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers)
Licorice Pizza (Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers)
Nightmare Alley (Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile
Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers)
West Side Story (Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers)

Statistically impossible. That's what we've been hearing about the chances of CODA winning Best Picture with only 3 total nominations, no DGA, no editing or directing nods and no below-the-line recognition in other categories. But what a difference just a month makes, as that perception changed considerably with its SAG Ensemble victory and shocking WGA and PGA wins, the latter of which remains one of the more reliable Best Picture predictors. Still, this is the longest of long shots, putting it in the company of another PGA winner without a directing nod, the now reviled Driving Miss Daisy. But it can happen, mainly because CODA's sure to show up at number 1 or 2 on nearly all these ballots. They love this movie and what it represents so that's enough for an Academy that's always voted with their hearts before all else. Critical complaints that Apple+'s little indie that could isn't "cinematic enough" to win or "plays like a TV movie" won't matter. They only care about how it makes them feel, which is why it's emerged as such a threat. 

Whether CODA actually deserves this is a separate issue, especially since even its most ardent supporters admit it probably can't hold up to the long-term scrutiny that accompanies the often dreaded Best Picture label. The Power of the Dog is the kind of film that can withstand it, in little danger of being forgotten the next day or outright mocked like previous nominees Little Miss Sunshine or Juno, to which CODA has somewhat unfairly been compared. But winning might be the worst possible thing for it, a punchline in the making with a backlash that could eventually rival Crash. And that's coming from someone who really likes it a lot. 

As for everything else, there really isn't room for a surprise spoiler. My favorite, Don't Look Up, is too polarizing, Belfast's chances already died on the vine, Drive My Car's surprise nomination was reward enough, Dune could sweep all the tech categories, Licorice Pizza doesn't have enough broad support and Nightmare Alley's an afterthought at this point. If voters really wanted to compromise, the rags to riches story of King Richard is a viable solution, but it seems that ship has sailed, as has West Side Story's. Had that been a box office success, it would be far better positioned heading into the show. While I could later regret it or change my mind five or more times, the smart money's on CODA, as unlikely as that once seemed.  

CODA

Director: Siân Heder
Starring: Emilia Jones, Troy Kotsur, Daniel Durant, Marlee Matlin, Eugenio Derbez, Ferdia Walsh-Peelo, Amy Forsyth, Kevin Chapman
Running Time: 111 minutes
Rating: PG-13

★★★ ½ (out of ★★★★)

At first glance, there doesn't appear to be all that much to CODA, but that's exactly why it stands out as entirely different, yet warmly familiar. It's an intimate yet universal character-driven story told exceptionally well, functioning as a deserved break from some of the more bloated, self-important awards season entries. And while its received some criticism for being one of those crowd pleasing, heart-tugging Sundance favorites, that label qualifies as a compliment under these circumstances. In both concept and execution, you could argue writer/director Siân Heder's coming-of-age drama is downright rebellious for establishing itself as the kind of film that's increasingly more difficult to release and make these days, especially at this level.

In adapting the 2014 French film, La Famille Bélier, Heder straightforwardly asks the audience to accept the premise at face value with refreshing honesty, bringing the goods to back it up. The surprises come not without any twists or turns in a plot that's pretty basic in an efficient way, but how intelligently observed the details are within it. The genre to which this belongs is nothing new, but the specificity of the situation is, and that's where the movie upends expectations, proving to be exactly what we've sorely missed of late. Featuring a brilliant, somehow completely overlooked lead performance and a supporting one deserving of every bit of acclaim it's gotten, it leaves you on a high, representing a true tipping point in its depiction of deaf characters on screen. But the real joy comes in losing yourself so fully in the story that this fact seems like an afterthought. 

17 year-old Ruby Rossi (Emilia Jones) is the CODA (child of deaf adults) of the title and the only hearing member of her family consisting of parents Frank (Troy Kotsur) and Jackie (Marlee Matlin) and brother Leo (Daniel Durant). All are deaf and use American Sign Language, with Ruby acting as de facto translator as her dad and brother work in the fishing business in Gloucester, Massachusetts. With Frank and Leo having new sanctions imposed on them by the local board that have made their jobs far more financially challenging, Ruby struggles to fit in at school. Somewhat of an outcast, she impulsively signs up for the choir to get closer to her crush, Miles (Ferdio Walsh-Peelo). But after she overcomes the nerves of performing in front of her classmates, choir director Bernardo "Mr. V" Villalobos (Eugenio Derbez), hears true talent, offering Ruby private lessons so she can audition for Berklee College of Music in Boston. Stuck between pursuing her own dreams or staying home with the family who depends on her, she's faced with a potentially life altering choice. 

The story Heder tells flows smoothly and easily and the actors are so natural that it becomes impossible not to get swept along for the ride. Actually shot in Gloucester, there's an authenticity in having this anchored by a predominantly deaf cast who, aside from Oscar winner Matlin, aren't widely known to the public, but bring a specific perspective to the roles that may have otherwise slipped through the cracks.You have to imagine the film would have an entirely different feel had we not been granted access to deaf people using sign language, working and seeing them in scripted, but realistic situations.

It's not a stretch to claim only a small percentage of viewers probably have interaction with those in the deaf community, likely making the portrayal eye-opening for many. To watch it without the benefit of subtitles only magnifies this experience, although what's most surprising about that is how anyone with no understanding of ASL could still follow because of the actions and reactions of the characters. Conversely, there's also a feeling of not completely grasping everything that's going on in certain scenes and having to fill in the blanks, creating a certain disorientation that mirrors the themes of the plot. 

While it's been unfortunately rare until now seeing deaf people in films running a business or having sex lives, Seder's script doesn't put a an exclamation point on it, playing the scenes exactly for what they are. Nor does she overlook the toll it's all taken on Ruby as the only hearing family member, put in the odd position of translating and sometimes even advocating for her parents at appointments or in social situations. Mocked and bullied by her classmates when she was younger for speaking like a deaf person, there's a certain amount of shame and embarrassment surrounding how she feels about her family. And after finally finding something she excels at and enjoys, it's now fear and guilt holding her back. That none of this comes across as sappy lies in English actress Emilia Jones' performance, which has unfairly been the least talked about aspect of the film's success. In nearly every scene, she's not only believable as this shy, awkward teen being pulled in two directions, but her singing's great and exactly what's needed for what Heder's trying to accomplish.

Sensing Ruby's potential while knowing she lacks the confidence to truly let go, Eugenio Derbez is terrific as Mr. V, avoiding a lot of cliches that accompany inspirational teachers on screen. He doesn't easily suffer fools and has no intention of wasting his time on someone who doesn't really want it, putting Ruby at a crossroads just as parents seem to need her the most. The idea that they can't fully appreciate her gift without the benefit of hearing is challenged throughout, specifically in Ruby's relationship with her father, Frank, played by Troy Kotsur. The theater vet steals every scene with priceless mannerisms and expressions that reflect both the character's warmth and sometimes vulgar sense of humor and frustration without words. 

In what's probably Kotsur's most memorable moment, Frank watches Ruby perform with only the audience's reaction to guide him, his face conveying a complicated mix of isolation and pride. As Jackie, Matlin excels in depicting a mother and wife striving equally hard to keep this family going, giving the actress the rare opportunity to play against type as a working class matriarch fighting to make ends meet. And in just a few scenes, Daniel Durant conveys in Leo the mounting, bubbling pressures that have come from often being on the outside looking in.  

Functioning as a reminder of how movies have recently overcomplicated things and need to get back to basics, it contains the dramatic DNA of some beloved low budget 90's indies, back when that was considered a positive. But it's actually better than many of those by being more surefooted in what it's trying to do, clocking in at a compact 111 minutes before arriving at a tearjerker of an ending that actually feels earned.

Thanks to the acting, the characters are lived-in and we grow to care about them as people rather than screenplay board pieces rearranged on a whim to serve the plot. To an extent, every film peddles in some form of manipulation, but the key comes in either hiding that so well it's barely noticeable or sometimes even just truthfully wrapping its arms around that conceit as kind of an armor against the allegation. CODA somehow does both, culminating in an effort that's capable of converting even the most jaded and cynical of moviegoers.           

West Side Story (2021)

Director: Steven Spielberg
Starring: Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Rita Moreno, Brian d'Arcy James, Corey Stoll, Josh Andrés Rivera, Iris Menas
Running Time: 156 min.
Rating: PG-13

★★★ (out of ★★★★) 

When it was announced Steven Spielberg would be directing an updated version of Bernstein and Robbins' classic 1957 musical, West Side Story, the news wasn't met with unanimous enthusiasm. It seemed to take years for this project to get off the ground before spending even more time in post-production due to the pandemic before barely making a ripple in theaters. Older fans of the 1961 film seemed offended he'd be reimagining one of the more respected Best Picture winners while younger audiences couldn't have cared less about any of it and stayed away.

Whether you're all that interested in seeing this particular story falls less on Spielberg and writer Tony Kushner than the source material, to which they're slavishly faithful, sharpening up the edges with  updated choreography, strong performances and a vibrant presentation. Musical fans will love it, as it's an impeccably made, if occasionally uneven interpretation, that accomplishes what's needed. And despite finding myself checking out at points, wishing some of the more monotonous numbers had been cut, it's easy to see why they weren't, especially given how closely it's being watched for retaining the integrity of the stage and film versions. Both traditional and aggressively modern all at once, this does get the most important detail right, satisfyingly delivering on its revisionist Romeo and Juliet-inspired love story.

It's 1957 and a gang of white youths called the Jets are feuding with the Puerto Rican Sharks for control of Manhattan's San Juan Hill neighborhood on the West Side, which is about to be demolished to make way for construction on Lincoln Center. Ignoring reprimands from Officer Krupke (Brian d'Arcy James) and Lieutenant Schrank (Corey Stoll) about the pointlessness of continuing this war, both Jets leader Riff (Mike Faist) and Shark leader Bernardo (David Alvarez) refuse to back down, with each staking claim on their territory, making it a matter of pride that can only be settled with violence.

After the gauntlet is laid down for a rumble to determine gang supremacy, Riff tries to recruit paroled best friend and ex-Jet, Tony (Ansel Elgort) back into the fold, who's been trying to turn his life around while working for Valentina (Rita Moreno) at Doc's General Store. But when Bernardo's sister, Maria (Rachel Zegler) and Tony spot each another at a local dance, it's love at first sight, only intensifying her brother's desire to destroy the Jets. 

With Maria already betrothed to Bernardo's best friend Chino (Josh Andrés Rivera), the optimistic, free spirited Anita (Ariana DeBose) is torn between her loyalty to boyfriend Bernardo and Maria, who's become like a sister to her. All of this comes to a dangerous head, with Tony and Maria caught in the middle, risking that this forbidden relationship is strong enough to withstand their different backgrounds and the gang rivalry threatening to tear them apart.

While it's a stretch to say its two and a half hour running length flies by, it does start swinging for the fences with some strong musical sequences right out of the gate that effectively introduce the characters. As far as plot, nothing we get here is a departure from the source, but under Spielberg's direction, there is a freshness to the production design and cinematography that suggests the here and now, almost making you wonder why he didn't just go all the way and set it in the present. 

From a visual standpoint, it works, looking and feeling entirely different from the 1961 film while taking place in a 1950's that could double for 2021. Like its predecessor, it utilizes a mixture of locations and sound stages, but no one's watching West Side Story as a historical drama or an approximation of these characters beyond their emotions, which are rooted in a nostalgic reality of sorts. Spielberg's stylistic choices reflect this sensibility, while correcting the '61 version's problematic issues of ethnic stereotyping and its offensive casting of brownfaced white actors as Puerto Ricans. 

Themes of racial tension and discrimination play as strongly now as then, making this fertile ground for a more relevant interpretation, with Spielberg and Kushner handling those issues more sensitively than decades ago without sacrificing the drama. The songs are more up and down, with some questionably placed and feeling dated, especially Tony's more quietly contemplative ones. Elgort has taken a lot of heat as the weakest link, and while it's the actor's flattest big screen lead performance yet, he comes alive in the last act and his scenes opposite Zegler really click, with them having better chemistry together than they've probably gotten credit for. His singing voice is pleasant but boring, though he's still an improvement over the bland Richard Beymer before him, who didn't do his own singing and brought even less to the role. After this, it may be time to admit there have always been problems with the surface-level Tony character that go beyond whoever is chosen to play him.

Maria fares better and that might be okay since the story always seemed to be more hers, with Tony serving as the catalyst to help her realize who she is and wants to be, eventually changing the dynamic between the Jets and Sharks. Angelic newcomer Zegler is a real find, with a singing voice so perfect it would almost seem unrealistic for the character if she wasn't so believable overall. Their initial meeting at the dance (set against the backdrop of cinematographer Janusz Kamiński's lens flare madness) is one of the film's strongest sequences, with the sensational "America" musical number and gang fight not too far behind. But it's the fallout from the pivotal rumble where Spielberg really steps on the gas, as we completely lose ourselves enough in the story and characters during the last forty minutes to squash any lingering reservations.   

Of everyone, it's Mike Faist and Ariana DeBose who just seem as if they completely belong as Riff and Anita, with the former equally adept at conveying the menace of this gang leader while his loose limbed interpretation of Justin Peck's choreography carries a natural physicality that fits in any era. DeBose, given the unenviable task of stepping into the role that already won Rita Moreno an Oscar, not only carries the musical sequences, but deftly handles the film's most notoriously difficult and controversial scene in the second half. Moreno's own role as Valentina is smallish in terms of screen time but she makes it count, leaving a memorable impression as Tony's boss and mentor. And as hot-tempered boxer Bernardo, Rivera effectively gets inside the skin of this overprotective brother and boyfriend whose anger and stubbornness guide his every action.

Though Spielberg's name was curiously downplayed in the marketing, the film's commercial reception highlights how his personal tastes have further diverged from the general movie going public over the past decade or so. Expecting audiences to come out in droves for this may have been a miscalculation, but it's clear he's only interested in doing things that personally excite him as a filmmaker. It's hard to argue he hasn't earned the right, shepherding a production that feels and plays like a big event, greatly benefiting from having him at the helm. With its wild tonal shifts, West Side Story isn't exactly the easiest material to faithfully update, so he deserves credit for putting a fresh coat of paint on a musical that can still be affectionately described as old fashioned in the best possible way.

Archive 81

Creator: Rebecca Sonnenshine
Starring: Mamoudou Athie, Dina Shihabi, Evan Jonigkeit, Julia Chan, Ariana Neal, Matt McGorry, Martin Donovan, Charlie Hudson III, Kate Eastman, Georgina Haig, Kristin Griffith
Original Airdate: 2022 

★★★ ½ (out of ★★★★)

Adapted from Daniel Powell and Marc Sollinger's popular podcast and advertised as something of a cross between The Blair Witch Project and The X-Files, Netflix's Archive 81 slowly builds its mystery with an attention to detail uncommon amongst previous media explorations of cosmic horror and supernatural cults. And that isn't faint praise, as creator Rebecca Sonnenshine has many moments where it seems she will follow through in delivering one of the streamer's tightest, most absorbing series to date, perfectly exploiting the medium to dole out just the right amount of chills and suspense. It almost makes it all the way, exceeding whatever expectations accompanied a series that probably hasn't been promoted or discussed enough.

Paced just right, this isn't one of those projects that feels like it's an hour and a half movie stretched over eight to ten episodes. It has two great leads, a genuinely unsettling premise and even some legitimate scares before delivering an ending that doesn't quite stick the landing, but comes close enough to set up all kinds of future possibilities. That is if Netflix chooses to renew it, which is far from a given since it seems like just the kind of underappreciated, high quality series they'd view as expendable and cancel without hesitation. This would be a shame, mostly because it gets a lot right and could go in any number of different directions that would amass a devoted (don't say cult) following. 

Despite some plot holes that seem to grow a bit in the final few episodes, there's some great storytelling going on, with a mood and atmosphere to match, as Sonnenshine has a good handle on how much audiences can take at once, revealing key pieces of information in carefully calibrated steps. The craziness does come, but we're eased into it since viewers will definitely need their hands held going down the ramp when the answers start coming.

Figuring out where all the characters fit into this larger equation is fun, so even as the series impresses more as a tense mystery early on than the sci-fi it finishes as, it's still something fans of either genre should get a kick out of. Starting somewhat grounded for what it is, the fantastical setup raises questions that get resolved without the pay-off feeling like a total letdown. That's a tough balancing act, but in avoiding the usual creative pitfalls that have plagued inferior found footage horror, they pull it off.

When media archivist Dan Turner (Mamoudou Athie) is approached by the mysterious Virgil Davenport (Martin Donovan) of the L.M.G. corporation to restore a collection of videotapes recovered in a fire that occurred in 1994 at the Visser apartment building in Manhattan, he reluctantly accepts the job. Upon arriving at the company's research campus in the Catskills to get to work, he discovers the footage was shot by Melody Pendras (Dina Shihabi), a grad student doing a visual history project on the Visser for her thesis. After the fire, she was never seen or heard from again, her videotapes somehow recovered.

As Dan fixes the tapes, more pieces of the puzzle start coming together while viewing Melody's interviews with the building's tenants, like troubled, seizure-prone pre-teen Jessica Lewis (Ariana Neal) and the friendly but suspicious college professor Samuel Spare (Evan Jonigkeit). But something very strange is going on in this building involving late night clandestine meetings, strange paintings, seances and group chanting. With her friend Anabelle (Julia Chan) soon joining her, Melody becomes determined to find out what's happening, while also trying to gain information about her biological, possibly deceased mother, who may have stayed there at one time.

For Dan, his selection for this job was more than mere coincidence, having suffered a mental breakdown a few years ago and still haunted by the death of his family in a fire when he was young. Left alone with his thoughts and constantly watched by Davenport, Dan uncovers a shocking connection his late psychologist father, Steven (Charlie Hudson III) could have to Melody and the footage. 

Hauled up alone in this house, the lines between reality and fantasy blur, as Dan utilizes best friend and supernatural podcaster Mark (Matt McGorry) as an invaluable investigative lifeline on the outside. Contracted by Davenport to complete the job while fearing for his life and sanity, Dan's in too deep to get out, determined to get an answer to the most important question: What happened to Melody Pendras? 

Discovering along with the protagonist each new piece of information that comes out through the tapes regarding the mystery of this fire and Melody makes for a gripping batch of opening episodes, alternating back and forth between the two timelines. Given the benefit of reacting along with Dan to the information contained in her tapes gives the series a momentum that carries it to the finish line, where answers emerge. 

These opening chapters are its best, largely because both characters' stories are equally compelling, with Melody's intentions coming across as so completely honest and true in the footage that you can't blame Dan for being unable to let this go. There's also an authenticity to her story very early on that morphs into pure fright and creepiness the deeper down the rabbit hole she slides. And that's not even accounting for the personal stakes Dan has in all this, the full extent of which he's yet to discover.

Davenport's motivations for selecting this young man for the job are kept intentionally vague, building intrigue as to whether this shadowy corporate figure is as nefarious as he seems. While you'd figure most of the jump scares come in the '94 footage, and do, there are some genuinely unnerving moments with Dan trapped alone in this house and outside in the nearby woods being trailed, mentally unraveling with each tape he fixes and views. But what both time-bending storylines most have in common is that either he or Melody could just leave their environments should they choose, if not for the shared desire to get to the truth, albeit in different places and eras. But soon enough, doubt surrounds even that, as the line separating them shrinks with each passing episode. 

As Dan, Athie is a stoic, everyman presence on screen, conveying a fearful determination that often straddles the line between obsession and heroism as the story takes its surprising turns. Just as strong is  Shihabi, a Shannyn Sossamon lookalike whose magnetism shines through in the found footage and flashbacks that comprise the majority of the series. 

Shihabi probably has to do the heavier lifting, but it's a credit to both actors that they somehow keep their characters grounded and relatable when eventually dragged into pure madness. There's similarly rewarding work from the supporting cast, like Jonigkeit as the suspicious Samuel and Ariana Neal, who's a whirlwind of emotions as young Jess. As Dan's ride or die buddy Mark, Matt McGorry takes the recent podcaster horror trope and humanizes it, emerging as a more trusted resource for his friend's survival than you'd expect. 

The true test of the series' sustainability comes in the reveal, with the writers holding little back,  laying all their cards out on the table. How satisfied you are with that result may vary, but the 1920's set flashback episode,"The Ferryman," devoted to the origin story of this sinister cult, ups the creep factor at the risk of losing some ambiguity. Featuring a brilliantly disturbing performance from Georgina Haig as the cult's enigmatic founder, it fills in the blanks before making a full turn into pure sci-fi for the finale, "What Lies Beneath." 

Up to this point, the mysticism surrounding ths cult combined the best elements of the similarly James Wan-produced Saw by way of The Wicker Man and Midsommar. But come time for the big fallout, viewers will undoubtedly be reminded of Stranger Things, minus the litany of period pop culture references (though they save a huge one for the end). 

Even as it's impossible to deny the looming presence of Netflix's most popular show in the finale, what leads the story down that road isn't a cheat. Still, it's fair to question the creative choice to put it all out there, making the hypothetical very literal. In a rare series that manages to scare with possibilities of the unknown and unseen, there's a risk in leaving so little left for the imagination. 

In Sonnenshine's defense, there were probably concerns of slipping into Lost territory and getting too tangled in its own mythology by holding back and stringing us along for another season that may not come. Archive 81 ends on a gripping cliffhanger that will leave fans cursing if this isn't renewed, as it cleverly sets the stage for the continuation of a series with real legs. But taken as a standalone, it still succeeds, with the two characters' intersecting story deepening as they cross the dimensions of time and space in ways Rod Serling probably could have appreciated.